Stormman96

3 minutes ago, RedSky said:

3 ensemble members are good for east central Jersey why am i not optimistic lol

 

Also you live in eastern nj. You shouldnt even be expecting snow. Move nw if you want or expect snow

4 minutes ago, RedSky said:

DT doesn't like the next couple weeks i'm telling you curb your enthusiasm in the winter of azz

Look at today another utter train wreck 

 

 

Dt. Is no longer saying that. He admitted he was wrong.  Now likes possibilities 

6 minutes ago, RedSky said:

Why the unbridled enthusiasm for the GFS run? First system is south, the second one has a primary in Pittsburgh so it's depiction of frozen is wrong it's a storm like today. Third storm is snow to rain and a lot of rain. 

That is winter of 2019 summed up in one week 

 

Wow do you ever say anything positive? I must say I like you since you actually make me look good. Most people that know me tell me im the most negative person.  But you actually make me look positive and thats saying a lot

5 minutes ago, Fields27 said:

WSW for Berks, Lehigh. 5-7". Wow

Sent from my HTC6535LVW using Tapatalk
 

Also same for my area in upper bucks 

8 minutes ago, RedSky said:

It's different because that map is not counting Monday mornings 1-2"

Also they are all too high because a significant portion Of Tuesday's event will be tainted with mix/IP. Would not anticipate 5-6" amounts outside of far N&W.

 

Even with 1-2 added is still not right. Shows 3 in quakertown on one map an over 6 on other. So per your map im getting over 3 from monday morning event? Highly unlikely 

30 minutes ago, RedSky said:

Best event for this region as a whole and it effects both Mon and Tue morning commutes

https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/2019020812/new-jersey/snow-depth-in/20190213-0300z.html

 

 

Why do these looke so different 

Just now, Stormman96 said:

What to believe???

1 hour ago, RedSky said:

12z euro is torch to couple days of normal cold and then cutter I don't see all the excitement. Even the overly enthusiastic and flawed GFS #2 shows the same thing.

 

 

Current temp down to 3 now. Received about 3-4 snow yesterday here in quakertown 

Control run through next weekend.  We can all dream

6 minutes ago, Ji said:

yep! sorry. Feb 88 is dismal

I remember that feb 87 storm well.  It was a sunday night into Monday morning storm.  I was living in philly at the time. That Sunday afternoon the foecast was for a period of wetsnow with 2-4 total. That evening they upgraded to a winter storm warning for 4-8 total I remember it was in the mid 50s that day an was watching the 11oclock news before going to bed and as of 1130 it was still almost 40 out an they said 4-8 mainly on grassy surfaces. A very wet snow had started around 1130 an ground was just getting wet .I went to bed expecting to have school in morning since I didn’t expext it to stick to roads with the warm temps. I woke up around 430 an looked out the winter an thought i was dreaming the snow looked liked tall mountains on top of cars an shed an everything.  It was snowing like crazt an looked to be easily atleast 10 inches on the ground if not more. I put on the local radio an latest forecast was now for 10-18 total. We ended up with around 13-14 total even in the streets. Obviously no school.  Then the temp got up to mid 50s again that afternoon an by evening their was hardly anything left on ground. Almost 14 inches of snow melted in one afternoon 

1 hour ago, ChescoPaWxman said:

Winter of yore incoming....

 

Well thats like 10-15 maybe for philly. And that between now an early March. I would exactly call that winter of yore.  If thats all we get this winter will barely reach normal snowfal for winter 

17 minutes ago, EastCoast NPZ said:

DT said put away the snow shovels.

So in other words then DT is admitting to a hugh busted winter forecast. Since DT called for a very very snowy winter 

Wow just watched local fox news. They are talking like a hugh winter storm is coming to our area. Outside of the poconos an maybe upper lehigh valley. This is a crap winter event

12 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

I have changed that map three times already and I will likely change it at least one more time before the storm starts after seeing updated guidance. I try to put my past experiences into it and in a lot of places just NW of 95 it can still go either way depending on the exact track of the surface low and how quickly the snow moves in.

Ok my apologies I shouldnt have called you out on your map. I guess im just extremely frustrated with this winter. Keep thinking we are finally getting hit then it fails. Trust me I hope your right

3 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

Aren't you near Allentown, pretty close to where I put the star?

 

No im about 15-20 miles south of allentown 

1 hour ago, NJwx85 said:

Map that you actually shares yourself of euro showing 2 to 2.5 here.  Im in the 2 shade of blue how is that 4-8 on euro????

1 minute ago, NJwx85 said:

Then don't look at my maps, I don't know what to tell you. Even the warmer Euro has 4-8" for that area.

Euro did not have 4-8 for my area. Maybe 2-3 tops

22 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

Updated to include rest of 12z guidance.

And you have me in quakertown near the 3-6 6-12 line. So around 6 or so here. Very very unlikely 

20 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

Updated to include rest of 12z guidance.

You have philly getting 3-6?  No chance

2 minutes ago, The Iceman said:

I'm thinking they are basing it off climo too. Alot of times the CAD is severely under forecasted right up to the event. Their discussion is actually a really good read. But yeah almost no models have that anymore. 

No question this is turning out to be one of the worst winters in a very long time.  I knew that November snow was going to kill our winter an some pros told me that wasnt true back in November an said that only applies woth October snow. Obviously that is incorrect.  Looks like more rain late next week. We are going to have to hope for the snowiest February in history in order to save this winter.  A lot of outlooks look to be going up in flames

5 minutes ago, mikeosh said:

MT Holly just expanded the WSW to include upper Bucks and western Montgomery.  They are thinking colder

Yea what are they looking at.  Showing 4-8 for upper bucks an has temps staying below freezing entire event 

36 minutes ago, The Iceman said:

LR guidance not looking great after the 3 threats incoming next 10 days or so. Pattern breaks down and we are right where we were. If we don't score in this brief period, we could be skunked through mid February possibly the rest of winter...

Didnt you just post yeaterday that their were a lot of great signals showing up in the long range???

5 minutes ago, KamuSnow said:

Lol, I thought of the CRAS, but didn't know it was a mesoscale model. I was curious because as much as the majority of models are (for now) consistent with a southern and out to sea track, it's not quite a done deal yet due to all the moving parts and how they evolve. Getting snow this far north looks like more of a long shot now, but I'm giving it another day or two, and open to different reads, so yeah. Thanks!

Now we lost the nam.  We are going in wrong direction 

9 minutes ago, Bosswx said:

Gfs way more north.Cmc is a good look. Models trending the right way.

What trend??  Gfs has been different every run