CNY-WXFREAK

I seriously doubt NYC sees 6-8" but thats just me.

I think 10-1" should do it for ratios.

I have a feeling I'll be chasing this thing cause it will definitely nor be over my house that's for sure. At least I wont have to drive far, lol!

Sometimes they never updated and it drove me up a wall.

your right, I guess the days of 2 updates daily are over! I'm all for it.

Their trying to pinpoint where the heaviest snow is gonna fall within this band that's supposed to form right, so why not wait till it forms to update the forecast? how about if its in Central Oswego cty? So I guess they'll change it again if that does happen right? That was kind of my pt.

I guess the more they put out, one of them has to come to fruition no, I mean how stupid , seriously!

I wouldn't worry about NE Monroe getting in on this upcoming event, as I'm worrying about my area and I'm smack dead in the middle of the 8" area and I'm still skeptical, seriously! I don't believe anything when it comes to forecasting snow from any Lake for that matter. It does what it wants always.

All these precip maps mean nothing, especially the LE ones. I'll believe the 8" forecasted when I see it OTG, otherwise its hoopla!

As soon as the snow stops the air warms so the 1' that fell will be gone by mid-morning, lol!

I see his gripe because with a normal seasonal change, as the Jet strengthens and starts to move South, usually systems come in through the Mid-west then head for the Lakes, as the Jet is still too far North, for any real Cold air intrusions. As this occurs, systems pass by to our West, usually, and hence the SSW-SWerly flow which usually develops and smashes KBUF and the usual hot spots with a SW flow off Erie! This year is the exact polar opposite and I don't see a change anytime soon unfortunately. The Jet is diving Southward as if Its Winter time already with Arctic Intrusions never mind a bit o cold air that usually invades during November besides the anomalous years like the current one. I see nothing but NW-WNW-Werly flow events for the foreseeable future unfortunately but that doesn't mean anything, cause this can all change on a dime....... But I don't see that dime just yet! It's just hard to imagine KBUF not seeing a few feet of LE during any given Winter so....Time will tell.

First 1' of the season, just measured and more to come tonight and Thur-Fri.

XL Parachutes are falling with a temp of 34F. Also a new headline for Oswego , Wayne and No. Cayuga Wayne-Northern Cayuga-Oswego- Including the cities of Newark, Fair Haven, and Oswego 345 AM EST Tue Nov 13 2018 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON... * WHAT...Heavy lake effect snow possible. Total snow accumulations of 5 to 10 inches possible in the most persistent lake snows. * WHERE...eastern Wayne, Northern Cayuga, and western Oswego counties. * WHEN...From this evening through Wednesday afternoon. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Travel could be very difficult. The hazardous conditions could impact the Wednesday morning commute.

I don't like this whole set-up and wish the next 18hrs move quickly!

Temp continues to rise and we're sitting at 43F and rising, as precip starts to fall and starts to saturate the column and evap cooling begins. Wetbulbs are even above freezing so......

We should all have just over a foot by the end of the weekend here to the SE of LO.

It takes it ots then reforms it off the Jersey coast then heads ots again, What the heck??

What a horrific model to be suffering from such massive convective feedback

We have a wicked 45 day period coming up which takes us right through the Holiday Season so I have no clue where some of those way pre-mature warm posts we're coming from, but I don't see any AN weather anytime soon across the NE

Agreed!

It dynamically cools the column directly underneath the ULL which is quite common during the cold season. Friday we snow and snow only then another round of WNW LES, lol!

I seriously despise the GooFuS! It has to be the worst model in existence and all these upgrades have done nothing to improve its performance , at least to these eyes anyway. Seriously annoying when its consistent with a system to the very end and just vanishes into thin air? If that energy that got stuck in the SW, that comes out for Thurs-Fri event, came out all at once, we'd be looking at a totally different situation/solution but that didn't happen of course.

Yeah, but I'm thinking that we ned to get through these first couple events before tackling an even bigger headache. If this band were expecting here tomorrow actually comes to fruition and drops whatever it drops, that can change the outcome of Thurs-Fridays event from a mix to primarilly snow if there's enough snowfall left OTG, so we'll see, but of course I've seen it and I've been holding back on posting because of all this other great stuff we're tracking. What a great early season of tracking we're being gifted with. Now longer range is looking colder and stormier as well, so things are def looking up. Wire to Wire yr guys, book it!

Not even looking at tonight and tomorrows slop.

Agreed, easily too if all comes together right, but to me this is the first real threat for our area!