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CNY-WXFREAK

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Everything posted by CNY-WXFREAK

  1. By late in the day Wednesday, the snows will settle into more of a west northwest flow lake effect regime. Ice coverage on Lake Erie will limit accumulations, but still could see local accumulations of a few inches across the Chautauqua Ridge and Boston Hills. The Lake Ontario lake snows should be more impressive with additional amounts near a foot highly probable on the Tug Hill. Wind speeds will drop off but still strong enough to produce areas of blowing snow
  2. It happens all over again in a few days but with more warm air, lol!
  3. its more of an orientation of the HP or shall I say the position. If all of these LP's were riding ahead of these HP's then we'd be rejoicing right now but its Breaking Bad for us as usual!
  4. 12K pops a real nice band at the end of the run which is 10PM Wed which will probably drop a bit further South as a secondary arctic front comes through.
  5. Its amazing how easy it is for a 1000mb SLP to move a 1040HP.
  6. Its gonna snow super hard for about 4-6hrs tomorrow.
  7. Channel 9 is always conservative but warranted this yr, lol!
  8. Our biggest concern right now should be the massive H700 Dry-Slot thats gonna engulf all of W-CNY after the snow thump and Decent map.
  9. The NWS threw the NAM out completely, lol, what a horrific model, wow!
  10. There's a ton of cold air just to our North being transported down through the Northeast. Stiff NE winds are bringing down some very cold air so.......... Temps were supposed to get to the low 30's meanwhile we never made it out of the 20's. I think were looking at a colder storm and a quicker transfer as I doubt that SLP moves all that HP to our North so we'll see.
  11. Precip all along the South Shore just shot up and over 1" liq eq on the Euro so perhaps as the system jumps the Rockies its getting better sampled as I wholeheartedly believe when a system is over the inter-mountain region, along the Rockies, its just not sampled properly, cause this will be the third time now a system, after its passed, and starts to redevelop along the lee side of the Rockies, and it moves out into the open plains everything changes.
  12. But who cares, back to the weather, Watch the Parent SLP today where it forms and how it moves.
  13. No Dave, when your right your right, but this time you are wrong, sorry! It did well with one event his yr, the NE wind event for the KROC area but what about every other event? Your basing your whole argument on one event that it got close to correct?
  14. If that parent LP gets up to GB like some globals have it, we mix and probably go over to rn for a while, s I'm not confident we even make wsw criteria right now, lol!
  15. Event will be here in less than 24hrs and we'll see which model does the best, K!
  16. Its so bad the the NE forum use's it as their last last resort behind the Frenchie, lol, yeah the French have a model, lol!
  17. It's a horrific model point blank. Its so bad thats its not included in verification scoring, lol, but your other favorite is, the CMC, lol!
  18. We DON"T care about KROC! The Big Mets vs 's what the small, lol? Just stop please, WOW
  19. Good cause no one really cares about your call. lol!
  20. Nothing but cutter after cutter on the long range so I would really except that fact that this Winter is toast and I wish we can just turn a switch and head into Spring but no dice. The worst part is that El Nino's are notorious for having late Spring starts so that is just horrible if that comes to fruition. What a disappointing Winter and one where I thought was off to a great start in November then it took a drastic turn for the worst but they happen every so often but lately they've been happening way too often!
  21. The ICON is a worthless piece of garbage but when I saw the GFS come in a tick or two warmer with tonights 00Z then I got a bit worried so we wait for the Euro to put the nail in the Coffin!
  22. First guess:' SKYR 4" then slop for several hrs then 2-3" on the backend so totals 4-7" KFZY 5" then slop for several hrs the 3-4" on backend so totals 5-9" KWRT Heavy Snow 12-18" lolli's of 24+ with backside upslope flow, congrats Matt KROC 1-2" then slop for most of the vent then backend snows 1-2" totals 2-4" KBUF 2-3" snow then slop hor remainder of event without much backend anything so 1-3" KBGM 1-2" front end then rain then back to sn showers but no accumulation so 1-2" I doubt anyone see's warnings from this except places to our N&E like Northern Oneida, Herkimer and most of the Mohawk Valley and the Dacks should do fairly well with this set-up but further up in ME is where it really gets a crankin!
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