Brick Tamland

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Everything posted by Brick Tamland

  1. Well, guess we are in the boring part of the year with regards to weather here. Looking forward to going to the beach, lake, and amusement parks this summer. But have to hang out at the midwest forum to get my severe weather fix.
  2. Summer officially started Monday. That's when I saw the first lightning bug of the year.
  3. I agree with all of this. All it takes is one big one to do damage, and it seems more often than not that happens lately when it's not super hyped like Monday was.
  4. This could be said for just about any kind of storm potential the last few years, whether it be a severe potential or a possible winter storm, at least for my area. The models can't seem to handle anything but mundane weather, and the weather just doesn't do the same things it used to do when it comes to big storms. I know that's been the case for winter weather here in my area, and ever since the April 2011 tornado outbreak we end up getting more numerous and severe storms when we're not under a watch versus when we are.
  5. I wouldn't sleep on today, either. Looks like AR and MO are under the gun. Mesoscale Discussion 0722 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0957 AM CDT Tue May 21 2019 Areas affected...Western AR and southern MO Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 211457Z - 211630Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...A pre-frontal squall line will spread eastward and northeastward into western Arkansas and southern Missouri through late morning and early afternoon. Destabilization northward in advance of the line will support a continued threat for a few tornadoes with embedded circulations. DISCUSSION...A pre-frontal squall line is moving eastward from eastern OK toward western AR. As a pronounced upstream shortwave trough begins to eject northeastward from northwest TX and western OK, an associated surface cyclone will develop northeastward into KS. The near-surface layer is still stable into southern MO per surface observations and a 14z SGF sounding. However, the surface warm sector will spread northward from AR into MO through the afternoon, as the environment becomes more supportive of surface-based convection into MO through the afternoon. Strong deep-layer south-southwesterly vertical shear will support embedded bowing segments and/or rotating storms within the convective line into the afternoon. Given strong low-level shear and a moist environment, there will continue to be a threat for occasional tornadoes with embedded circulations in the line, as well as damaging gusts and isolated large hail. The storms will progress east of tornado watch 205 in the next 1-2 hours, necessitating a new tornado watch into AR and MO after 16z. ..Thompson/Hart.. 05/21/2019
  6. The tornadoes are continuing this morning in OK. Great scanner feed here from Bryan County, OK. https://www.broadcastify.com/listen/feed/14040/web
  7. Yeah, the forecast is only going to be as good as the data behind it. I think the parameters that used to give us certain weather when it comes to big storms, either severe or winter storms, just are not the same anymore, and the computer models are just going to be wrong more often than not when it comes to anything other than mundane weather.
  8. I think we have too many risk categories anyway. No need for five. Slight and marginal, and enhanced and moderate are too similar in definition. Just have slight, moderate, and high.
  9. Still seems like a dangerous situation, but I guess there have not been as many tornadoes or big tornadoes as expected based on what the SPC said. Maybe you can call that a bust, but it has still produced several tornadoes. I have to say, for my backyard, the SPC has busted a lot since we had the tornado outbreak in April 2011. Now when we are under any kind of watch we don't hardly even get a storm, let alone anything severe. We get more severe storms and tornadoes when we don't even have a watch, like what happened here last Monday.
  10. I am not sure what has to happen to say it's living up to the hype. Seems there have been a lot of tornado warned storms already.
  11. This is insane. https://twitter.com/spann/status/1130469922503647233
  12. Today is also the anniversary of the Moore, OK tornado in 2013. Hope that is not an ominous sign.
  13. Hope the models are wrong with this one. Looks very scary for TX and OK right now. Good luck to the chasers and everyone in the threat area. Stay safe.
  14. This one is a little different. Before it was usually the FV3 showing a storm past 7 days. This time both the Euro and GFS both were showing a storm and a big hit for NC yesterday. Those two haven't been on the same page since the December storm. But I guess it really doesn't matter, because unless it's inside 5 days now it's just fantasy.
  15. EPS is really down here, too. Only 2 or 3 panels showing any snow.
  16. Euro has rain here with the first wave, and out to sea with the second wave. Crazy how different things are just 24 hours later. It's really maddening.
  17. Still a wide spread with the GEFS. Looks like for me 8 have no precip at all, 6 have rain, and 6 have something frozen.
  18. Yeah, I know with the December storm it really wasn't until 72 hours out that it looked good again for parts of NC.
  19. The sad thing is that is the first time really since the December storm that we have seen the models actually agree on a storm and be consistent with the outcome for a whole day. I really thought we were onto something with the Euro jumping on board. I think with the December storm we were worried about the models going north with some runs, but then they came back a little further south to give us that big hit. I think I am recalling that north shift and then back south correctly. If so, maybe we can get that to happen again with this threat.
  20. GFS goes from 6 to 8 inches for parts of NC yesterday to a dusting to maybe an inch today.
  21. Funny how things can change in 24 hours. Yesterday, things looked great because the GFS showed a big hit for NC, and then the Euro came on board. yesterday was the first time they both showed a good storm for NC. Then things started going the other way with the runs last night. I guess there is time for it to come back around, but now it looks the models are showing less and less of a hit with the runs since last night.