Brick Tamland

1 minute ago, snowinnc said:

This fellow North Raleigh poster completely agrees with you!  I won’t be greedy at all. 1”-3” would be perfect.

I feel I can get 3 to 5 here easily. Start off as sleet and then change over to snow. 

NAM starts out as sleet here but looks to turn to snow with the 850s crashing fast. 

NAM was about to go boom.

Here's the blend of the latest models. 

29 minutes ago, Sandstorm94 said:

Who would have ever thought the king would bow to the jester...

Sent from my SM-S115DL using Tapatalk
 

Former WRAL met Greg Fishel said yesterday he preferred the GFS lately over the Euro. 

6 minutes ago, gman said:

Wow. The filthy language in that tweet is not worthy to be on this forum

He always acts like a jerk, too.

UK Met was awesome. Euro op was concerning last night but the ensembles were okay. GFS was okay. Looks like we'll have a winter storm here, just a matter of how much snow or ice. Would love to see two roubds and have storms Thursday through Sunday. That could help totals. Let's see what the current Euro says.

And here we go with the back and forth dance. Glad to see the GFS have a better run.

6 minutes ago, Tony Sisk said:

Where is burrell2? I don’t believe I’ve seen his name in this thread. He was fantastic with the last storm!

Burgertime is MIA, too.

Are we about to get NAM'd?

4 minutes ago, Beach Snow said:

Still 20ish or so members showing a more southern solution…i think the NW solutions are such big hits is why the mean jumped so far NW. maybe i could be reading them wrong.

Only about 14 or 15 good hits here compared to over half the last run.

Looks like these days we need the system to be in Cuba 7 days out to have a real chance at all snow here. Just getting it to the Gulf doesn't work anymore with how things start trending NW around 5 days out.

2 minutes ago, PackGrad05 said:

The trends, at the current moment, are not good for central NC.  Looks almost identical to the recent system.

Different kind of system but same result. It feels like the warm nose here gets worse and worse every year lately and really cuts down our snow totals, even when we have surface temps in the 20s.

What's the saying? Deja vu all over again with this weekend's storm.

I wonder if Fishel will change his tune about the Euro. Models are all over the place. I just hope we are not seeing a repeat of Izzy. Even though it's a different setup, it would be crushing to have the same result with the mid levels turning our snow to ice. Right now with no model consistency it's still anyone's ballgame. 

7 minutes ago, Beach Snow said:

EPS looks great

7 minutes ago, Beach Snow said:

Individual members

I would take this all day. Looks like over half the members have a big storm here. 

2 minutes ago, Beach Snow said:

Agree, but we are within 100 hours. With the recent storm there was tons of agreement between most models within this range. This storm has less agreement in closer range which is unfortunate

What would be unfortunate is to have surface temps in the 20s again and have the midlevels ruin things again. That's what the Euro is showing and it's what happened with yesterday's storm.

Doesn't seem to matter how the storm evolves, we're seeing the same thing happen on the models with this storm as we saw with the one we just had. Gone from a big snow storm 7 days out to a mess of snow and ice.

Sounds like the Euro might be coming in good

Greg Fishel's thoughts. He actually likes the GFS over the Euro.

HERE WE GO AGAIN!

No sooner do we get done with one winter tease, and now we appear headed for an encore performance later this week or over the weekend. The operative word here is "tease"! I must say, after singing the praises of the European model for decades, something has gone very wrong with our friends across the pond. Take the last 3 model runs for instance-big snow to nothing to big snow. I actually trust the American global model more now, and I never thought I would utter those words. 

Well, no matter what happens with precipitation, another potent shot of arctic air is on the way, and our overall below normal temperture pattern seems destined to continue for awhile. We've experienced below normal temperatures 7 of the last 10 days, with more to come. If anything does happen later this week, it would be induced by the development of a wave of low pressure along the leading edge of the next cold air mass. The question is does that happen, or is it just an innocent cold frontal passage? Time will tell.

The UK

So, looks like we have a lot of possible scenarios still and the models are all showing different ones.