Brick Tamland

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Posts posted by Brick Tamland


  1. 14 minutes ago, Cold Rain said:

    I don't recall December really looking all that great, though.  There have been a few windows where a well-timed, perfectly executed winter storm could have happened for parts of the area.  But we have not been anywhere close to a legitimate winter storm pattern, outside of a few LR model panels, which hopefully we all know by now, we shouldn't get too excited about.

    Here's what I don't get.  I can't understand it.  I've asked before, and nobody ever really answers it.  Do we really not expect to see mild periods in winter?  It is the SE.  It's going to be mild some of the time.  We just have to hope the pattern (which you cannot determine from one LR GFS panel or one ensemble plot) isn't a dumpster fire.  The predicted state of the atmosphere in a couple of weeks isn't showing signs of being a dumpster fire.  That seems like a good thing to me.

    I'm not saying to get overly excited about a modeled 10+ day pattern.  But by the same token, there's even less of a reason to be overly pessimistic about it right now.  There is no rational reason, steeped in meteorology that would lead you to conclude we're headed toward unending warmth for the winter.  The only reason somebody would believe that is simply because they just want to.

    At the same time, there's no rule that says you have to be excited about a week two pattern either.  I don't know why it's so hard to be neutral and approach the thinking and discussion by minimizing bias and maximizing critical thinking.  If you do both of those things, there is real actual reason to be somewhat more optimistic than pessimistic regarding the extended range.  That's just the way things are lined out right now.  Maybe that changes in a few days.  But now you are just guessing/wishcasting/bittercasting or whatever term you want to use.

     

    giphy.gif

    Some folks, the same folks as always, are always going to be pessimistic unless it's wall to wall cold and threats showing up every week from December to March. It's their usual shtick. 

    • Like 4

  2. 9 minutes ago, Cold Rain said:

    The extended gets into decent shape at the end of the GEFS.  The trough in the SW is an artifact of a split stream.  As long as the EPO region gets into shape, cold air can filter in.  Notice where the PV is.  Not in an ideal spot, but not too far away that it wouldn't take but a couple of very quick adjustments to kill the slight ridging in the SE.  Even as things stand on that map, there's not any reason to think CADding wouldn't be an option.  Anyway, my take is, we have been in much, much worse patterns than the one depicted.  And what's being shown isn't a far distance from being able to produce bigly.  I can't see the EPS that far out, but if it looks similar, than let's take our normal/above average period like a man and rock out in January!

    GFS.thumb.jpg.ae47bd1733512e9c38f039301bc93561.jpg

    Yes, we have seen a lot worse. I don't think we are far off from getting some serious winter storm threats here. We're just taking baby steps to get everything set up for them, and it's hard to be patient now that we're in the middle of December. 

    • Like 2

  3. 2 hours ago, superjames1992 said:

    I don’t like our chances with this setup.  And even if we did see flakes, they will be meaningless flurries.  Then again, I haven’t seen any flakes fall from the sky since our historic dusting of snow in Tallahassee in January 2018, so I better take what I can get, LOL.

    If anyone in the SE sees any snow at all falling in November, it should be counted as a win. 

    • Like 6

  4. 1 minute ago, Solak said:

    RAH is waiting for more model consistency.

    A low pressure center passing across Canada will have a cold front 
    that extends all the way south into Texas Monday morning, and as the 
    front moves east, another wave of low pressure will develop along 
    the front. The new low will form over Washington DC and move east by 
    Tuesday morning. The front should be across eastern North Carolina 
    at that time, but the precipitation will mostly trail the front. The 
    GFS, GEFS, and ECMWF have all struggled with this system over the 
    last two days, with each model flipping back and forth with the 
    timing of the precipitation as well as the amount. Today it's the 
    GFS's turn to go with a mostly dry frontal passage, while the ECMWF 
    has been consistent across its last two runs showing precipitation 
    mostly during the day. As a result, made very little change to this 
    part of the forecast until models can come up with some sort of 
    consistency. The frontal passage will occur Monday night, followed 
    by precipitation Tuesday, followed by another round of colder air 
    Tuesday night and beyond.

    With the way the models have been flipping back and forth like they said, it's probably best to just wait and see until we get closer. Euro showed potential first, then the GFS came along and really increased totals while the Euro decreased potential, and now we're back to the Euro showing more potential than the GFS again. And we'll probably see more back and forth and swamping since we're still a week out.

    • Like 1

  5. 5 hours ago, NorthHillsWx said:

    Not going to lie, this far out it looks like the players are on the board. That is an optimal SE winter storm low track and there is cold air available. For Mid-November, that is as much as you can ask for at this point. This is definitely something worth tracking atm. Keep in mind, this is more than a week out. I wish this setup was a month from now!

    The 12th to 15th period has been looking interesting since Monday. First, it looked like we might have a shot on the 12th, then the 14th, and now this looks like the 15th. Anything we see now in terms of winter weather, even if it's just a few flakes and no accumulation, would be awesome since we're just entering the middle of November. Hope this is a sign of good things to come this winter. 


  6. 15 hours ago, thess said:

    Yeah, but I know you know how the SE forum usually rolls with storms. And we’re in the crosshairs on this! Where’s brick? Where’s that mackerel guy who’s always hilariously sarcastic?

    I took my talents to another board for SE weather that has a lot more traffic than the SE forum here these days. 

    • Haha 1
    • Sad 1

  7. Severe Weather Statement
    National Weather Service Raleigh NC
    349 PM EDT Thu Jun 20 2019
    
    NCC037-202000-
    /O.CON.KRAH.SV.W.0096.000000T0000Z-190620T2000Z/
    Chatham NC-
    349 PM EDT Thu Jun 20 2019
    
    ...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 400 PM EDT
    FOR CHATHAM COUNTY...
    
    At 349 PM EDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line
    extending from near Butner to 6 miles north of Pittsboro to 8 miles
    south of Siler City, moving east at 50 mph.
    
    HAZARD...70 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.
    
    SOURCE...Emergency management reports numerous powerlines down
             across the City of Chapel Hill.
    
    IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect considerable
             tree damage. Wind damage is also likely to mobile homes,
             roofs, and outbuildings.
    
    Locations impacted include...
    Pittsboro, Siler City, Goldston, Crosswinds Boating Center,
    Crosswinds Campground, Harpers Crossroads, Jordan Lake State Rec
    Area, Bynum, Seaforth Boat Dock and Moncure.

  8. SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
    NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
    309 PM EDT THU JUN 20 2019

    NCC001-063-077-081-135-145-201930-
    /O.CON.KRAH.SV.W.0094.000000T0000Z-190620T1930Z/
    ALAMANCE NC-PERSON NC-ORANGE NC-GRANVILLE NC-GUILFORD NC-DURHAM NC-
    309 PM EDT THU JUN 20 2019

    ...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 330 PM EDT
    FOR ALAMANCE...EASTERN PERSON...ORANGE...GRANVILLE...SOUTHEASTERN
    GUILFORD AND DURHAM COUNTIES...

    AT 309 PM EDT, SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE
    EXTENDING FROM NEAR VIRGILINA TO 11 MILES NORTHEAST OF ROUGEMONT TO
    GRAHAM, MOVING EAST AT 50 MPH.

    HAZARD...70 MPH WIND GUSTS AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL. 

    SOURCE...EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT REPORT NUMEROUS TREES AND POWERLINES 
    DOWN ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA, ESPECIALLY 
    PORTIONS OF PERSON COUNTY. 

    IMPACT...HAIL DAMAGE TO VEHICLES IS EXPECTED. EXPECT CONSIDERABLE 
    TREE DAMAGE. WIND DAMAGE IS ALSO LIKELY TO MOBILE HOMES, 
    ROOFS, AND OUTBUILDINGS. 

    LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
    DURHAM, CHAPEL HILL, BURLINGTON, GRAHAM, OXFORD, HILLSBOROUGH,
    CREEDMOOR, CARRBORO, MEBANE AND BUTNER.

    PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

    STRAIGHT LINE WINDS CAN BLOW DOWN TREES, POWER LINES, AND DAMAGE
    MOBILE HOMES AND OTHER BUILDINGS. SEEK SHELTER IN A STURDY STRUCTURE
    UNTIL THE STORM HAS PASSED. STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS AS FLYING DEBRIS
    GENERATED BY DAMAGING WINDS CAN BE DEADLY.

    TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS, AND MAY LEAD TO
    FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED ROADWAYS.


  9. MD 1160 graphic

     Mesoscale Discussion 1160
       NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
       1123 AM CDT Thu Jun 20 2019
    
       Areas affected...North Carolina...Virginia...Maryland and Delaware
    
       Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 
    
       Valid 201623Z - 201830Z
    
       Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent
    
       SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are expected to develop during the early
       afternoon posing a risk for damaging wind and hail. A severe
       thunderstorm watch will probably be needed by 18-19Z.
    
       DISCUSSION...The warm sector continues to destabilize over a large
       part of the Mid Atlantic region from North Carolina through VA and
       MD. Surface dewpoints around 70F and temperatures warming through
       the mid to upper 80s have boosted MLCAPE to 1500-2000 J/kg. WV
       imagery shows the primary shortwave trough over the TN Valley, but
       with an MCV moving through the southern Appalachians. These features
       are progressive, and the accompanying forcing for ascent along with
       boundary layer destabilization should result in an increase in
       thunderstorm coverage and intensity this afternoon. Wind profiles
       are unidirectional west southwesterly with 30-40 kt deep-layer flow,
       but modest 0-6 km shear generally less than 35 kt. This environment
       will support mostly multicell modes, but mid-level updraft rotation
       will also be possible in some storms. Activity may evolve into
       clusters and line segments with time posing a risk for damaging wind
       and hail through the afternoon into early evening.

  10. First watch coming soon.

     

    mcd1159.gif

    Mesoscale Discussion 1159
       NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
       1102 AM CDT Thu Jun 20 2019
    
       Areas affected...southeast Alabama...central and southern Georgia
       and South Carolina
    
       Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 
    
       Valid 201602Z - 201800Z
    
       Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent
    
       SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are expected to develop by 17-18Z over a
       large part of the Southeast U.S. and increase in coverage and
       intensity during the afternoon, posing a risk for damaging wind and
       hail. A WW will probably be needed for a portion of this region by
       17Z.
    
       DISCUSSION...A moist warm sector resides over a large part of the
       southeast U.S.  with dewpoints around 70F and temperatures climbing
       through the mid 80s F as of 16Z. Latest objective analysis indicate
       MLCAPE around 1500-2000 J/kg and further destabilization will occur
       as the surface layer continues to warm. Water vapor imagery shows a
       progressive shortwave trough moving through the TN Valley, with an
       MCV also indicated over southeast TN/northern GA. A low-level
       confluence zone is forecast to evolve well inland from the coast
       from southern AL through southern GA. The combination of forcing for
       ascent associated with the MCV and progressive shortwave trough,
       surface layer destabilization and subtle boundaries, should promote
       warm sector initiation by early afternoon. While deep-layer wind
       profiles are unidirectional west southwesterly with small 0-1 km
       hodographs, a belt of 50 kt mid-level winds within the base of the
       trough is resulting in 30-35 kt effective bulk shear. This
       environment should support both multicell and some supercell
       structures with discrete modes eventually evolving into lines and
       clusters capable of damaging wind and hail.