WEATHERBUFF

18 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

A weak system is bringing light snow to portions of Maryland and Virginia. Dulles International Airport has picked up 0.6" snow. Some portions of Virginia have received 1"-2" snow.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.40°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.10°C for the week centered around February 27. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.45°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.58°C.

Similar ENSO conditions will likely persist through much of March with some possible fluctuations to just below weak El Niño levels. Some guidance suggests the potential some additional warming of ENSO Region 3.4 in coming weeks.

The SOI was -0.77 today. It has been negative for 30 out of the last 31 days.

Today's preliminary value of the Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +2.202. The AO has now been positive for 29 consecutive days. The last time the AO was positive for at least that long was during the August 6, 2018 through September 4, 2018 period when the AO was positive for 30 consecutive days.

On March 7, the MJO was in Phase 4 at an amplitude of 2.643 (RMM). The amplitude was little changed from the March 6-adjusted figure of 2.648. The MJO could lose amplitude in coming days.

A storm moving through the Great Lakes region could bring a brief period of wintry precipitation Saturday night or Sunday morning to parts of the region before any precipitation ends as rain. Parts of central and upstate New York into northern New England could pick up moderate accumulations of snow.

Afterward, readings could remain warmer than normal for at least 7-10 days, limiting opportunities for snowfall. The warmth could peak around mid-month with the potential for readings in the 60s extending as far north as southern New England.

Beyond that, the possibility exists for a return to cooler temperatures relative to normal during the closing 7-10 days of the month. Currently, the GEFS is more impressed with the potential return of colder weather than the EPS.

I think we'll do okay up in northeastern Pa. In regards to late March luckily the GEFS has done much better than the eps!

1 hour ago, Brian5671 said:

we'll get there but it will be a slow slog through the mud...December will end up being a warm month, +1 to +2 with little to possibly no snow....

+1 to +2 above the 1981-2010 average is about normal for today's December climate.

1 hour ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

After next week's cool down the GFS looks toasty heading into the end of September.  

Long range gfs...lol!

On 8/20/2018 at 10:01 PM, Brian5671 said:

August will likely finish +3 to +4 and Feb was a blowtorch as noted above...

I meant after Feb. I do agree that we are really about 2 degrees in reality over the 1981-2010 average today. Perhaps we should use 1.5 to 2 degrees over those averages and that would fit for today's climate.

On 8/20/2018 at 9:39 PM, JustinRP37 said:

February was +6.7F at KHPN and so far August has been +4.7F. Last month was +2.2. April was a coldest departure from normal at -2.1F, since March of 2015, which was -2.7 and February 2015 which was -6.7F. That February was the coldest departure from normal I have in that dataset since December 2010. Overall since I began compiling this data for tick projects, KHPN is running +1.8F above the 1981-2010 normals.

I agree, my thinking has been that  we are close to 2 degrees above the 1981-2010 average for today's climate.

4 hours ago, bluewave said:

The WAR has been a very stable and persistent feature in 2018. We are lucky that the strat warming produced a cooling influence for March and April. Otherwise, it would have been continuous warmth and an early ending to winter after January 10th.

Only May has been well above normal.

4 hours ago, SACRUS said:

Looks to turn more wet than heat 8/19 - 8/23-24 before next surge of heat on around 8/25.  So wet and warm-at times hot continues overall with an over performing WAR. 

 

Today will be the hottest day of this heat surge with Friday and Saturday likely dealing with storms/clouds but have potential to hit 90+.  Sat 850s surge to 20C, but plenty of storms could be firing.

 

 

90 is not hot for today's climate in reality over the last 15 years or so it is only a bit above normal for NYC and Philly.

These models are getting worse it seems!

6 minutes ago, CIK62 said:

NYNJPA waved the white flag and gave up on the remainder of the winter.   A wrong way SSW does us in.

It depends on location...coastal sections may be in trouble because we will get nina climo.

7 minutes ago, CIK62 said:

CFS's  December Outlook still looks awful.   

It's an awful model!!

2 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

Yep another early end to winter.   Seems like 2/15 has been the date of the last big snows for a few years.    Big warmth in middle of the country-hard to see how we don't get warm at some point in the next week or so.    Tough winter, the cold could never hit and hold.  The loss of the warm blob of water in the Pacific was a big deal along withe the AO and NAO staying positive much of the winter.   

DT has been awful, so what he says expect the opposite. Although philly south it may be the end of winter, but they never really had winter!

7 minutes ago, RedSky said:

I believe climate change and everything it entails such as altered SST's and the warming pole is playing havoc with the physics of computer models, the flipping beyond 24hrs had been extreme recent winters.

 

I agree especially when they overplay the cold and underestimate the warmth.

5 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

exactly - and  after his "December to Remember"

It was okay for State College Pa....lol

5 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Cosgrove updated again today. Says brief cold shot later this week but transient as the progressive/zonal pattern locks in thru the last days of January. He is saying mild East of the Apps thru very late January. Not what I wanted to hear this morning.
 

He has not done too well with his forecasts lately....look at last winter.

15 hours ago, hazwoper said:

I am guessing they will bust in our area based on the overall consensus.  

I believe they are saying areas further north.

12 hours ago, SACRUS said:

Today's Highs;

PHL: 93
TTN: 90
EWR: 87
TEB: 87
New Brnswk: 89
LGA: 85
ACY: 85
JFK: 85
NYC: 83
ISP: 82

I think the philly area south does not belong in the NYC discussion...they're climate is closer to DC area especially with recent trends.