Maneee

I actually laughed out loud! 

Just like the last storm just quietly lurking. Being in Germantown it seems I've been on the fringe 3 times this winter, always a nail biter but certainly a good storm within driving distance! 

Just been an observer, I just moved to germantown and feeling just fine about being on the fringe. Originally from chicago so had my fair share over the years. Cool to watch the gradual shift on the models this storm. Always awesome!

44 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

Any recon scheduled for Eta? Looks like the H word on sat even with the slight displacement of the center 

Yeah they're flying out now. 

14 minutes ago, weatherbo said:

Thanks. I’m driving and technologically inept. Bad combo. Driving northeast toward MI, I figure if I get back at 2am it was worth seeing a blizzard. 
 

(I’m staying in central Wisconsin anyone for the time being) 

Just now, Maneee said:

About 20 miles north of Wausau Wisconsin currently, and it quickly went from a gentle mix to this:

 

About 20 miles north of Wausau Wisconsin currently, and it quickly went from a gentle mix to this:

I have some chronic conditions, so I’ve isolated myself in an old trailer that my grandfather used to live up in the middle of Wisconsin to try to get away from the metro area. I feel fine but due to hoarding I can’t get much food! Unreal how people can buy up supplies. 

Actually a bit impressed with this given the 18z guidance. I think we’re going hit are 1-3...

I don’t think it’s even going to precipitate here in the far(ish) northern Chicago metro. Latest HWRF didn’t even bring snow to ORD. 

59 minutes ago, Baum said:

first and final call. 1.8". It pays to wait.

I’ll join in on the late bandwagon: 

1.4 at ORD. 

3 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:

No doubt. Have already been hearing it about why we were so low compared to every other outlet.

Going 4-7" max in the main axis was a good call. Obvi big shift south is needed and coming though.

Always try and support you guys in the comments as much as I can. You wouldn’t believe that people can get so worked up about a forecast map. 
Isc was the ONLY forecasting agency (from everything I looked at) that went conservative. And that wasn’t an easy choice with the euro and the NAM and even the GFS showing big snows. 

Just now, Baum said:

updated LOT.

That is such wishful thinking. 
this winter is like the last hundred years before 2016 for Cub fans. There’s always next storm. 

4 minutes ago, Malacka11 said:

Now we start the trend back up at 18z bahahaha

I hope. I'd believe it when I see it but I'll just silently hope.

This is truly the biggest disappointment. I don't remember the last time there was so much agreement and then it craps out at the last second. Way to go Ukie. 

Interesting thing. The Lake Enhancement end of this is so evident on every single model no matter the resolution. I wonder how that has an effect on 1. Snow ratios and 2. Intensity. 

We've all seen that mixed flake size stuff-- so its really just a thought. 

8 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said:

00z Canadian

Not too shabby! Looks good for the first/last WSW event. I miss the really big stuff but that's just being both nostalgic and greedy. 

Just now, Cary67 said:

Did the GFS slow down also and phase later like the NAM?

Yeah. Pretty much. Not the same evolution but it is a bit later.

Just so its here. 

23 minutes ago, Cary67 said:

Small melt downs are good for the soul.

And we all have post traumatic stress disorder from this winter. We’re all triggered hahaha. 

Just now, Chicago Storm said:

18z Euro...

When that last piece of energy (0z) gets sampled and the models are still going south I’ll be really worried. 
 

This wasn’t what I wanted to see in any event.

Yeah very good write up on LOT. Interesting on the guidance trends, at least to end that a more northerly track is usually favored by the NAM, not the GFS.  0z tonight may jerk us one way or the other. 

We need a 2015 situation now! Ghd 2 was fun because of the last minute model cranking.

2 minutes ago, SchaumburgStormer said:

With the standard many ways to underperform and disappoint, I like the potential for an over performer. Long duration, with ratios being notoriously difficult to get accurately. With this much qpf, a 10:1 will be a substantial ground level difference over 6-7:1

I’ll say one thing, being on the west side of Lake Michigan from an incoming classic winter storm track is definitely one of the best ways to get a really good snowfall. I just hope to dear God that this doesn’t all come crashing down on Monday.

25 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Not exactly the power trio of models but the Canadian, ICON and Navgem are on the colder side.

There are sort of rare occasions when the Canadian sniffs out something that the power duo don’t really. 
That said, I’m not sure whether having the icon on our side is good or bad. I feel like many times the opposite happens to what they say .