dizzy9479

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Posts posted by dizzy9479


  1. Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine Discussion Number   1
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL092019
    500 PM EDT Thu Sep 12 2019
    
    The disturbance in the southeastern Bahamas has not developed a
    closed circulation yet, but the cloud pattern is gradually becoming
    better organized. An Air Force plane is currently approaching the
    disturbance, and will give NHC more details on the structure of the
    system. Advisories are being initiated on this system as a
    Potential Tropical Cyclone to allow for the issuance of a tropical
    storm warning for a portion of the northwest Bahamas after
    consultation with the meteorological service of that country.
    
    The system is still under the influence of strong shear caused by an
    upper-level low in the Gulf of Mexico. As the disturbance moves away
    from the upper low, conditions are expected to be a little more
    conducive for development as indicated in the intensity forecast.
    With the exception of the GFS, which forecasts a vigorous trough
    crossing Florida into the Gulf of Mexico, the remainder of the
    global models develop a tropical cyclone near the northwestern
    Bahamas and move it as an intensifying system very close to the east
    coast of Florida. The NHC forecast opted for the solution of these
    latter models, however, it is emphasized that given the model
    discrepancy, both the track and intensity forecasts are highly
    uncertain, more than usual I would say.
    
    Key Messages:
    
    1. The disturbance is expected to become a tropical storm and bring
    tropical storm force winds to portions of the northwest Bahamas
    within 36 hours. As a result, advisories have been initiated on
    Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine. Note that forecast uncertainty for
    these disturbances is generally larger than for tropical cyclones,
    especially beyond 48-72 hours.
    
    2. The system is expected to bring tropical-storm-force winds and
    heavy rainfall to portions of the northwest Bahamas on Friday and
    Saturday. Significant storm surge is not expected in the northwest
    Bahamas from this system. Residents there should follow any advice
    given by local officials.
    
    3. The system could bring tropical-storm-force winds and rainfall
    to portions of the Florida east coast over the weekend. Residents
    there should monitor the progress of this system.
    
    
    FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
    
    INIT  12/2100Z 23.7N  74.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
     12H  13/0600Z 24.5N  76.0W   25 KT  30 MPH
     24H  13/1800Z 25.5N  77.2W   30 KT  35 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE
     36H  14/0600Z 26.5N  78.9W   40 KT  45 MPH
     48H  14/1800Z 27.5N  80.2W   45 KT  50 MPH
     72H  15/1800Z 30.0N  82.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
     96H  16/1800Z 31.0N  82.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND
    120H  17/1800Z 31.5N  80.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...OVER WATER
    
    $$
    Forecaster Avila
    

  2. Hurricane Dorian Tropical Cyclone Update
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052019
    930 AM EDT Sun Sep 01 2019
    
    ...CATASTROPHIC CATEGORY 5 DORIAN CONTINUING TO INTENSIFY AS IT
    APPROACHES THE ABACO ISLANDS...
    
    Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate
    that Dorian has continued to intensify, and now has maximum
    sustained winds near 175 mph (280 km/h), with a minimum central
    pressure of 922 mb (27.23 inches).
    
    The eyewall of catastrophic Hurricane Dorian is currently reaching
    the Abaco Islands.  This is a life-threatening situation.  Residents
    there should take immediate shelter.  Do not venture into the eye if
    it passes over your location.
    
    Hazards:
    - Wind Gusts over 200 mph
    - Storm Surge 15 to 20 feet above normal tide levels with higher
    destructive waves
    
    These hazards will cause extreme destruction in the affected areas.
    and will continue for several hours.
    
    
    SUMMARY OF 930 AM EDT...1330 UTC...INFORMATION
    ----------------------------------------------
    LOCATION...26.5N 76.6W
    ABOUT 25 MI...40 KM ENE OF GREAT ABACO ISLAND
    ABOUT 210 MI...340 KM E OF WEST PALM BEACH FLORIDA
    MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...175 MPH...280 KM/H
    PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
    MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...922 MB...27.73 INCHES
    
    $$
    Forecaster Brennan/Blake/Zelinsky/Avila
    • Like 1

  3. 000
    WTNT65 KNHC 310027
    TCUAT5
    
    Hurricane Dorian Tropical Cyclone Update
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052019
    830 PM EDT Fri Aug 30 2019
    
    ...DORIAN STRENGTHENS TO A CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE...
    
    Data from the NOAA Hurricane Hunters indicate that Dorian has
    strengthened to an extremely dangerous category 4 hurricane with
    maximum sustained winds near 130 mph (215 km/h). This increase in
    intensity will be reflected in the forecast issued at 1100 pm EDT
    (0300 UTC).
    
    SUMMARY OF 830 PM AST...0030 UTC...INFORMATION
    ----------------------------------------------
    LOCATION...25.3N 71.0W
    ABOUT 400 MI...645 KM E OF THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS
    ABOUT 575 MI...925 KM E OF WEST PALM BEACH FLORIDA
    MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H
    PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
    MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...950 MB...28.05 INCHES
    
    $$
    Forecaster Cangialosi/Latto

  4. Got a 16+ out of the Victoria area already:
    
    307
    NOUS44 KCRP 261031
    PNSCRP
    TXZ229>234-239>247-262231-
    
    Public Information Statement
    National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
    531 AM CDT Sat Aug 26 2017
    
    ...Rainfall Reports...
    
    Location                     Amount    Time/Date       Lat/Lon
    2 SW Victoria                16.43 in  0415 AM 08/26   28.79N/97.01W
    San Antonio River Near Mcfad 11.75 in  0415 AM 08/26   28.53N/97.04W
    6 SSE Austwell               11.36 in  0459 AM 08/26   28.30N/96.82W
    Coleto Creek At Arnold Road  6.37 in   0445 AM 08/26   28.86N/97.23W
    Garcitas Creek Near Inez     6.04 in   0515 AM 08/26   28.89N/96.82W
    4 ENE Victoria               5.66 in   0504 AM 08/26   28.86N/96.92W
    1 E Victoria                 5.02 in   0418 AM 08/26   28.83N/96.95W
    3 NNW Schroeder              3.84 in   0228 AM 08/26   28.84N/97.24W
    5 W Corpus Christi           3.03 in   0516 AM 08/26   27.70N/97.39W
    10 WSW Portland              2.55 in   0430 AM 08/26   27.81N/97.47W
    4 ENE Robstown               1.29 in   0433 AM 08/26   27.84N/97.59W
    2 N George West              1.04 in   0506 AM 08/26   28.37N/98.12W
    9 S Tilden                   0.63 in   0430 AM 08/26   28.31N/98.56W
    San Miguel River Nr Tilden   0.39 in   0415 AM 08/26   28.59N/98.55W
    Laredo                       0.09 in   0500 AM 08/26   27.54N/99.50W
    2 SSW Laredo                 0.08 in   0500 AM 08/26   27.50N/99.50W
    
    Observations are collected from a variety of sources with varying
    equipment and exposures. We thank all volunteer weather observers
    for their dedication. Not all data listed are considered official.
    
    $$