raindancewx

I think is kind of a nuts winter personally, even though on aggregate it will probably come out relatively close to average in a lot of places. Part of me thinks TX could see some kind of fluke storm in late winter, like a blend of a Blue Norther with subtropical jet moisture.

October here is directly correlated to December in La Nina, so if we end up 3-4F colder, that alone favors more cold in the SW in Dec.

2016:   75.9F (+4.6F) -->49.7F

2017: ~72.5F (+1.2F) --> ??

I put this in the MO thread, but some of the analog years I like had good snows pretty deep into the South.

I dunno if the "snow" anomalies I'm linking include sleet/freezing rain, etc, but this forum region did pretty well in terms of snow anomalies in a lot of the winters I like. If SSTs mean anything, its a good sign, since the blend is very close to current conditions.

Sanity check for analogs in Oct of analog year v. Oct 22 2017:

I don't have much faith in the CFS this early, but it continues to insist on a dry NW for the winter...AND a La Nina.

36 minutes ago, radarman said:

nice job, and GL

As an aside, hiked Mt. Wheeler on 10/1... snow began to appear around 11.4k', ramped up sharply above about 12.2k'.  Stray post holes might swallow up your whole leg in places... And the wind was out of control near the peak as the late Sept trough finally ejected..  Beautiful, incredible place. 

Even in populated areas of New Mexico it can occasionally snow in June & September. Snow is favored precip time above 7,000 feet or so from October to May. Nice pics. Was hoping for some snow in the city this October, but not looking likely. It only happens once a decade though. Suspect my forecast will do OK, with some issues, something always comes up. Last year it was pretty good for January nationally, less so Dec/Feb. As far as I know New Mexico doesn't have any glaciers, the permanent snow/ice line here would be like 15,000 feet above sea level, but obviously the big time mountains get close - I think July is really the issue - even at 13,000 feet its rarely cold enough to snow here in July.

"Beautiful Incredible Place" is how I'd describe most of New Mexico really. If you're back by June you will be able to see the white stuff on the higher peaks. Mountains will keep getting snow into mid to late May most years. Even in the city we had an inch of snow in some areas on April 29th this year. The volcanoes (5800 feet) outside the city were the lushest I had ever seen them a few days after it melted, covered in beautiful green grasses, flowers, mud, and wildlife.

I have the West pretty warm in Nov, but should be fairly cold TX to ND and east.

The JAMSTEC update agrees with what I put out - somewhat warm - but pretty wet in MO/AR etc. The run in Oct last year was pretty bad for the NW (temps) but it did have the big time warm winter right overall. Its nice to see it colder this year.

It was pretty good on precip last year, except that the wetness hit CA & not the NW. But it has MO/OK/TX/AR wet - and it had them very dry last year (correctly). The Jamstec is close to what I have. I don't really buy the Temperature/Precip outlooks from the models for winter until October, but its nice to see big differences from last year.

I think so. I agree with Weatherbell and some of the other forecasters out - its kind of an ice storm pattern. I think its pretty wet in the south other than Florida.

The biggest thing the ice has going for it in the winter is that the AMO anomaly tends to end up at about 60% of its Summer values in Winter - which would be a much colder Atlantic than last winter. Last Summer was like +0.45 and went to +0.279 for Nov-Apr. This year, more like +0.325 in July-Sept, been assuming +0.15 or so for Nov-Apr, which is much less rare in terms of warmth.

We've had some really nice days here lately - down to the 30s the other night, with highs in the 60s, and then low 70s today.

Some of you seem interested in skiing, and others talk about "snow fixes" so I included some snow data for the high country in winter outlook if any of you are interested. I'm expecting a pretty decent season up by Chama & Red River against their long-term averages.

https://tinyurl.com/yam55n95

https://tinyurl.com/yam55n95

The link is my winter forecast, if anyone is curious. Ended up using the following for analogs, which gave a weak, slightly east-central La Nina, which isn't super far off from what the Canadian showed. Analogs: 1932 (x2), 1943 (x3), 1944 (x3), 1996 (x3), 2005 (x3), 2007 (x3), 2008 (x2), 2012 (x1).

If any of you like to ski, I included some snow totals for the mountainous areas of NM as a proxy for whether ski season will be good or not.

I'm somewhat optimistic for a cooler winter than last year for the SW & SE - in my area two big early predictors both favor less warmth - the number of 87F days (we had 96!) and the AMO in July to Sept. AMO in July to Sept was 0.325 or so. Last year, 0.460. That's worth around half a degree of cooling. The increase in 87F days, fro 83 to 96, is worth about a degree of cooling. Expecting the winter here to be around 49.6F, +/-2.2F. Will put up my winter outlook tomorrow.

Part of me wonders if there will be some kind of lag in the Nina response just because it has been reversing lately - third column is Nino 3.4.

 06SEP2017     20.4-0.1     24.3-0.6     26.2-0.6     28.7 0.1
 13SEP2017     19.7-0.7     24.0-0.9     26.1-0.6     28.7 0.0
 20SEP2017     19.3-1.1     23.9-1.0     26.3-0.4     28.7 0.0
 27SEP2017     19.5-1.0     24.4-0.5     26.5-0.2     28.4-0.2
 04OCT2017     19.3-1.4     24.7-0.2     26.7 0.0     28.7 0.1

I guess it could reverse in record time, but Oct 1-9 looks like it had an anomaly of -0.2C in Nino 3.4. So into Nov/early Dec it seems like a Neutral pattern would prevail. Basically, I think the Euro will trend a colder for Dec for the middle of the US when it accounts for that. I've been assuming, -1 to -2F for Dec, +/- 0.5 for Jan, and then +3 in Feb for my area. So it isn't that different from my thoughts (it has +1 for Jan and +4 for Feb for me).

Nate is almost identical to 1932 also - a tropical storm formed in the Caribbean on Oct 5 and hit LA/MS as a strong tropical storm / weak hurricane from the same direction.

I want to see what the AMO value for September was, but pending a sudden warm up / cool down from the hurricanes, I like a blend of 1932, 1943, 1944, 1996, 2005, 2007, 2008, 2012 for the winter. Tried to pick warm/neutral AMO years, with a mix of positive PDO/negative PDO years, low solar, La Ninas or Cold Neutrals after La Ninas, similar values to what I expect on the Jamstec's Modoki index which goes back to 1870. Also try to blend it all in a way that matches Summer rainfall patterns here, since we get so little rain even in the wet season.

Weighting is something like:

1932: x3

1943: x2

1944: x3

1996: x3

2005: x3

2007: x3

2008: x2

2012: x1

I think it's a much colder, but still not particularly cold winter for much of interior South, South Central, and SW US. 1932-33 was one of the winters that triggered the Dustbowl so hoping it isn't that dry, but with a VEI6 volcano in the tropics, and a hurricane hitting SW FL, a four hitting Puerto Rico & TX, something is similar - whether its Nino 3.4, trade winds, or the Atlantic, its not like Puerto Rico & TX have both been hit by fours in the same year in any other year since 1850. 

I'm almost done writing my winter outlook, will put it out sometime between 10/7 and 10/15. Want to see how much rain we have in Oct and a couple other minor things.

I'm not a fan of 1999-00 for this winter, but I do like 2007-08 somewhat - look at how much closer 2007 is to 2017. Look at Summer 1999 - super cold in the SW, really most of the West, and super warm in the NE. It's almost the exact opposite of recent conditions. Part of that is we had pseduo-El Nino conditions in Apr-July, but still. I know there is a guy on the Accuweather forums who likes 1999-00, but he keeps insisting 1998-99 was a good match to last year even though the precip pattern was the complete opposite - for most of the West (NW dry not Wet, SW wet not dry, especially CA) and the South.

8 hours ago, Rugun said:

Talk to me!! How's the winter forecast looking for Louisiana? Cold, wet, dry? I know we need some rain, I hate mowing 3 acres in a dust bowl.

Pretty sure it will be warm in Louisiana for the winter, but a lot cooler than last winter. None of that +6F to +8F garbage like last year.  Maybe +1 to +3F? I have to re-do my simulations with the heavy rain we've gotten in TX/NM lately. The soil moisture does seem to impact the placement of the highs some.

I think effectively there is something of a wake in zone where the sub tropical high will be because of Harvey, Irma, Jose, Katia, and Maria beating the day lights out of it and upwelling some colder ocean temperatures. My area is colder (not actually, you know cold) in La Nina winters that follow relatively long duration periods of heat. We've had (at least) 96 days 87F or higher, that tends to lead to near normal temperatures here. My area is colder (not actually cold) in La Nina winters when the Atlantic is cooler. My area also has exceptionally variable winters near the solar minimum - record heat / record cold are all near the minimum. Barring a complete bust over the next two days for highs, these years were the objective analogs that popped up for winter based on my Summer conditions - its heavily weighted to temps and preicp with low weight to ENSO. This is one method I use to look at winter - I'll give it some weight, but it isn't my forecast.

The big big wild card for the winter especially late is if Mount Agung or one of these other suddenly active Ring of Fire volcanoes is going to erupt in a big way soon enough to screw up the Earth's heat intake.

I've had at least 0.64" rain today, one of the biggest precipitation days of the year here. Basically 48-50F from 6 pm to 9 pm with steady rain. Feels great actually.

I had a wet September in my Summer outlook (from mid-May). Looks pretty good now if the NAM is right about the city getting another 0.6"-1.2" rain by Sept 30. I think I had 1.25", and we're at 0.74" right now. The link has the newest NAM outlook through 9/30/17.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DKx3ktNU8AE9-V2.jpg:large

Will be issuing my winter outlook (snow and DJF temps) sometime between Oct 7 - 15. I'll link it on here if anyone is curious.

4 hours ago, Roy said:

Does DFW have any good years with La Nina? I am basically thinking that's going to kill winter and if it lingers lead to drought next year, but sometimes you can get good cold out of it at times. 

We are getting screwed on the rain though after it looked promising last week.

1938-39 was cold in TX (La Nina), same for 1983-84, and 1984-85, 2000-01

1974-75 wasn't bad

1988-89 wasn't bad

2010-11 wasn't bad

Some of the near La Ninas (cold-Neutrals) seem pretty cold in TX actually (1932, 1937, 1944, 1947, 1948, 1962, 1967, 1985, 1996, 2012, 2013)

WPC on board too

What kind of recovery would see in the ice if Agung erupts at a similar magnitude to 1963? It was a VEI 5 eruption at around 8 degrees away from the equator. I know my coldest winter in 120+ years was 1963-64. Lots of evacuations in Bali right now.

Am I crazy for thinking we might be entering a Dustbowl redux?

Last winter (2016-17) was very similar to 1931-32 by temperature anomalies nationally. This (2017) Hurricane season is the only one since 1850, other than 1932 - to have a category four hurricane hit Florida, Texas and Puerto Rico in the same season. The PDO, Nino 3.4 (raw) temperatures, AMO (raw) temperatures, and solar activity are all almost identical to 1932 right now. To me, the Dustbowl started after how dry / warm the 1932-33 winter was for much of the Midwest. 

PDO: Aug 1932: -0.1. Aug 2017: +0.1

AMO: Aug 1932: 23.51C, Aug 2017: 23.66C

Sunspots July-June: 1932-33: 14.5

               July-June 2017-18: 18.0?

Other: Both years two years after Super (Modoki) El Ninos:  1930/2015

Look at how close Nino 3.4 is for August 2017 & August 1932 too - https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DKS8WhyVAAAb3KN.jpg:large

Seems like in addition to the snow on the highest peaks, Eastern New Mexico will be dealing with severe weather and a big rain event later in the week. I'm expecting around 0.3" here by next week.

NAO was +0.5 in 2016-17 for Nov-Mar according to this - http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/norm.nao.monthly.b5001.current.ascii.table

AO was very negative in Nov 2016 from what I remember, so thought maybe he meant that? But it ended up positive in Nov 2016 - Mar 2017 too. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/monthly.ao.index.b50.current.ascii.table

Nov-Mar NAO

2005-06: Negative

2006-07: Positive

2007-08: Positive

2008-09: Neutral

2009-10: Negative

2010-11: Negative

2011-12: Positive

2012-13: Neutral / Negative

2013-14: Positive

2014-15: Positive

2015-16: Positive

2016-17: Positive

As mentioned earlier in this topic, its interesting seeing the ice extent coming back a bit with the AMO dropping a lot from last year. Came in at 0.314 in Sept 2017, down from 0.461(!) last September. We've caught 2008, and are running ahead of 2007, 2012, 2015, 2016 for sea ice extent on 9.11. We may catch 2010 or another year for lowest extent if there aren't more big losses soon.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DJkbUBAU8AAmg72.jpg:large

The transition in mean highs in Jun->Jul->Aug is a pretty decent indicator of snow in ABQ. We had pattern one this Summer. Against 1931-2016 mean highs, June was +3.2, July was +0.1, and August was -1.3F. Historically, going from warmer to cooler anomalies from June to July to August tends to come before a snowy winter in Albuquerque. It isn't particularly biased by El Nino either, only 35% of the years that fit the pattern are El Nino. Most are actually Neutrals (58%), which is what I expect this year to be.

Pattern one Summers also tend to have slightly warmer than normal winter highs in the Northeast, even with 2014-15 in there as a striking counter-example.