rjtysinger

Just now, ryan1234 said:

Can we stop it with this tomfoolery already? You're from NC, obviously. And they aren't wishcasting. The GFS has sorta been an outliner this whole time. It's hard to go against the Euro and most the hurricane modeling guidance. Not the mention the NHC. 

Yes I’ll stop.  The big difference is I don’t want it.  Back to it ladies and gents.

13 minutes ago, Orangeburgwx said:

GFS, to me, ran the system in too high imo... I think it dives down further into SC than that last run showed because it is really slowing down now

Let me guess,  you’re from SC!   Any scientific proof or just wish casting?  I had a post deleted yesterday for wishcasting it to you!  Even NHC said they had no confidence after landfall.   That said I hope it’s all to SC.

1 minute ago, Cold Rain said:

So the crappy models are north and the good models moved south.  Cool.

Which models have it coming North?  

While not perfect,  the track is the better outcome for N.C.   I know things can change but at this point if the NHC is trending SSW I think it will turn out ok!

If it stalled offshore would that cool the waters in turn weakining it?

I’m not gonna hug the back and forth on the models.  They are wrong more than not!

4 minutes ago, tramadoc said:

They said they moved it easy, but a bit west of model consensus.

Sent from my SM-N950U using Tapatalk
 

Yeah, I’m going to follow their track for now.  Models shift every 6 hours and it does “me” no good to follow each and every shift. Not sure of the eye wall diameter in nm but just south of New River inlet atm.

NHC track looks mostly the same, maybe a tick to the east.

1 minute ago, Iceagewhereartthou said:

Are you guys thinking the ridge is stronger than modeled? It seems 98% of these go farther North and East in the days leading up to a potential landfall. A few exceptions, but few and far between. Already the forecast track cone has shifted significantly since yesterday morning, from as far south as Jacksonville Fl to about Hilton Head now, with the center over Wilmington. I'm thinking this will probably be another Outer Banks scraper or even near miss OTS (hopefully). 

I don’t remember seeing the forecast cone at Jacksonville Fl.  If I’m wrong I apologize. I do hope it misses north and ots though!

I really don’t get the ones who want this carnage at their doorstep.  It won’t be cool or a good time.  Guess you have to experience it to understand!

8 minutes ago, Brick Tamland said:

And looks like it could be the worst case scenario for the Triangle.

The State!

Just finished watching this.  Man the memories.  This storm could have a similar track but I hope not.

Still plenty of time for it to shift either way but what’s concerning to me is this isn’t a normal poleward moving storm.  I guess the best hope is for that high to push out faster.

Not looking good at the moment but still a long way out.  Different track but when Fran hit we had gotten a ton of rain prior and it was horrible with down trees.

9 minutes ago, Orangeburgwx said:

Oh boy here we go... She's starting to look healthier on the IR with a possible eyewalk forming 

Hopefully she’ll walk it out!

Rough surf and rip currents either way you look at it.  Glad we vacationed this past week!

Per Fishel the rain/snow was moving nw tonight and will move se in the morning. I have been all rain so far but would like to see a flake fall.

IF we do get some flakes , how much will actually show?  Ground is awfully warm. I would rather see a good potential a week out after some cooler temps.   That said I hope someone gets something out of this other than some much needed rain.

Always wanted to get down to S.C. and fish some waters other than Santee. Wateree always has interested me. I get you on the power plant lake, I fished Sutton lake a lot and it was great before they switched from coal to lp.

At the rate these temps are hanging the bass spawn could peak late March would put it about a month early.

7 minutes ago, rjtysinger said:

Just because I don't pad my post count with fluff because I prefer to sit back and read and observe I guess that makes an observation null.  Sorry to be on your board .  

My apologies to you.  I guess I did misinterpret what you we're trying to say!

1 minute ago, thess said:

Yep, as a lurker how I am supposed to tell how urgent each post is without a dang timestamp?

Just because I don't pad my post count with fluff because I prefer to sit back and read and observe I guess that makes an observation null.  Sorry to be on your board .  

5 minutes ago, pcbjr said:

I tried to PM WOW but got kicked back - anyone who can reach him, please let him know about the issue!

Sent

1 minute ago, pcbjr said:

I'm seeing the date but not time of posts - anyone else having this issue?

Yes  same thing here!