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parrisbutch

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About parrisbutch

Profile Information

  • Four Letter Airport Code For Weather Obs (Such as KDCA)
    KHSV
  • Location:
    Madison, AL
  1. parrisbutch

    1/28/19 - 1/29/19 Winter Storm Thread

    The latest NDFD is trending better for North Alabama. Given how conservative HSV was earlier today, this is quite a jump.
  2. parrisbutch

    1/28/19 - 1/29/19 Winter Storm Thread

    HSV just issued a Winter Storm Watch... "While the speed of the front might limit the overall length/time period for snow, time-height analysis from various data sets were all indicating a stronger vertical motions either in the dendritic snow growth zone or just below. This would suggest the potential for some brief heavier snowfall rates in any mesoscale banding that develops. Total snowfall plumes from various data sets were trending the mean snowfall towards the 1.5 to 2 inch range. Our current forecast fall inline with these values with some locations in southern middle TN receiving upwards of 2.5 to 3 inches. These amounts occurring either just before or possibly during the morning commute on Tuesday has prompted the need for a Winter Storm Watch to highlight the potential for travel impacts. Even though we could see some melting of snow initially, the fact that temps will remain below freezing until Wednesday afternoon, any melting that does occur should lead to refreezing and icy roads."
  3. parrisbutch

    1/28/19 - 1/29/19 Winter Storm Thread

    The Huntsville office did an about-face over the last 24 hours. they went from saying the 4" was a possibility to saying that they were only sticking with 1.5" - 2" for consistency sake. "There remains quite a bit of uncertainty regarding potential snowfall accumulations, as warm ground temperatures, the fast eastward motion of the postfrontal precip band, and a decreasing trend in the strength of the synoptic scale lift will all contribute to limit snow totals. However, for the sake of consistency and collaboration, we only indicated a minor adjustment to our storm total snow accumulation grid from the previous shift. Another notable trend in the consensus guidance is for a more rapid end to precipitation than previously anticipated, and this is likely in response to a faster eastward motion of the mid-level wave supplying the postfrontal lift. As a result of this reasoning, we have reduced POPs fairly substantially after 29/12Z, with only a few lingering flurries possible in northeast AL by late Tuesday morning."
  4. parrisbutch

    Major Hurricane Michael

    I don't think it'll take that long, but the very fact that the power company is setting the upper limit at 6 months as opposed to 2 or 3 tells me something about what they think they're up against.
  5. parrisbutch

    Major Hurricane Michael

    Some relatives of mine in Lynn Haven, FL (about 5-6 miles north of downtown Panama City) have been told it could take up to 6 months to restore power in their neighborhood.
  6. parrisbutch

    Major Hurricane Michael

    I tried reading through to see if this has already been posted. If it has, I just missed it and I apologize. anyway, here are "after" satellite photos of the entire affected area along the immediate coastline. The map should start at Mexico Beach. You can move NSEW just like on Google Maps. https://storms.ngs.noaa.gov/storms/michael/index.html#15/29.9466/-85.4208
  7. parrisbutch

    Major Hurricane Michael

    Yeah, the pictures and video from Mexico Beach is why I was expecting CSB to be worse than it looks in those pics. And just to be clear, that wasn't my Facebook post. It's one I found searching for pictures of the damage on CSB.
  8. parrisbutch

    Major Hurricane Michael

    Some pictures from Cape San Blas. Frankly, it's not as bad as I was expecting.
  9. parrisbutch

    Major Hurricane Michael

    Has anyone seen reports of how things went on Cape San Blas? I imagine the word "extensive" doesn't even begin to describe the damage there.
  10. parrisbutch

    Major Hurricane Michael

    Posted on Brett's Facebook page by his wife Rachel... "I'm getting tons of messages, text and calls. Thank you for the prayers. Brett is safe last I spoke with him. Keep them coming. I have people coming to be with me. Things happen to even the most experienced chasers. So lets keep things positive cause I do have kids in here and tbh 2 of then won't hesitate to get ugly back and that's the last thing I need right now."
  11. parrisbutch

    Major Hurricane Michael

    Yeah, and he lost signal too. That's a bad area for cellphones on clear days. God bless him. He's in for one heck of a ride.
  12. parrisbutch

    Major Hurricane Michael

    I've driven through there more than once. I can't think of a good place for him to go when things get REALLY bad.
  13. parrisbutch

    Southern System 1/5-1/8 2017 OBS

    25 degrees and sun shining a little in Madison, AL. If this screws up my trip to Tampa but we get little/nothing I'll be highly ticked.
  14. parrisbutch

    Winter Storm 1/6 - 1/8, 2017

    I hope that's right. I'm normally a guy who wants as much snow as possible, but not this time. I'm the only one here hoping for a complete bust.
  15. parrisbutch

    Winter Storm 1/6 - 1/8, 2017

    I would love to see a similar graphic for Alabama. I'm supposed to leave North Alabama early Saturday morning driving to Tampa. I'm thinking I won't know which route to take until I start driving and get road condition reports.
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