KeithB

Just measured exactly 9 inches on my deck. Central Rockland County

35 minutes ago, ag3 said:

There's a deform band of 2"-3" an hour. I dont care what the city ground temp is, if it snows that hard, it will accumulate.

Wherever the deform ccb sets up, will receive 6"-12"+. Right not, most models place that around NYC.

As for the Euro, it has done these types of whacky precip cuts many times in these situations.

 

I wouldn't worry about it.

Im a nervous wreck about it. That said, all the other models on the same page (ish) does carry more weight then the EURO alone on an island. But I am scared as the EURO is arguably the best of them all

1 hour ago, RU848789 said:

Think TWC forecast is the best I've seen and they've really gotten much better the past several years (remember, they were the only ones who nailed Jan-2015) with some very good mets and model discussions these days. I think the NWS adustments at 4 am were in the right direction, but not enough, especially towards 276/195 and the coast, where I think TWC is likely to be better. We'll see of course.

I totally agree with you. Many people on here love to rail against TWC as they used to be awful...and due to their built in biases about what it used to be, are unwillingly to accept their  improvements

Would be something if this storm winds up suppressed

9 minutes ago, psv88 said:

WOW. 

back to heavy snow with MASSIVE snowflakes here in Suffolk. Everything getting white 

GOGOGO

2.6 inches on the ground and snowing moderately in central rockland county. How am I supposed to measure this exactly as to avoid packing? Do I wait for let's say 3 inches, and then clear it, and then start anew and just add it?

58 minutes ago, Brasiluvsnow said:

New City looks like a postcard,,,,my son just asked " when are we going for a walk " 

Soon!

7 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said:

I’m not going to do it but I’ve literally considered going somewhere to storm chase and sleeping in a car. 

I have storm chased before....but personally, I would wait until an 18+ type storm is gonna hit the chase area. I've done Monticello, Albany, North Conway NH, and western Mass. But I recommend a hotel and not your car

28 minutes ago, ILoveWinter said:

I don't thing people necessarily trust the NAM (outside of 24h) but we had basically gone all winter without one of those classic "we've been NAMd" runs so it illicited a reaction from us that we haven't had in a year or so!

And it was also following every run of every model improving from their previous run...and the first one up of the 12z suite. So at that moment in time, although likely overblown, seemed to be an additional indicator of much more improvement

Well...ever since the crappy 00z GFS run last night, every model run of every model since then, has showed continued improvement

1 minute ago, weatherpruf said:

I've decided to do the reasonable thing here; that is, the thing one would do, hopefully, in most situations; see what the experts who do something, in this case weather forecasting, for a living, have to say. Well, they say rain for all but a few slushy inches NW of the city, but that it will be a messy storm and a headache, but they don't seem to be worried about snow. I come here for contrary opinions hoping they might be right, and sometimes, like the Boxing Day storm, they are. But overall,  it seems the die is cast here. Still a little uncertainty and I have nothing going on this week, so we'll see. Be safe out there.

I think this is spot on. as much as I am hoping Rockland county sees, let's say 8+ (and yes, that chance is in play), in reality, it's very high % going to be exactly as you just stated

1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

HRRR looks pretty good 

How good? and how is the 12z NAM looking?

1 minute ago, White Gorilla said:

He is definitely more knowledgeable than me so I give him a nod there.  But my God, the constant, incessant anti snow, least snowy solution is so agenda driven.  Rain, sun and mild are all bowing to his alter. 

I bet he always thinks the stock markets going to go down too 

I know these pessimistic types

3 minutes ago, wilsonvoid1 said:

lol, do you guys know which models are best statistically?


.

I think the Euro is considered the #1. Would that be correct?

That said, the Euro (as per what Don explained/posted a few posts back)...I suppose isn't spitting out as much snow as we think it is

WOW. Another homerun from the euro!

3 minutes ago, Winterweatherlover said:

If the 0Z euro holds and we have cmc/euro in our favor that wouldn’t be a bad combo. Still a tricky setup it seems for the models and I guess I’m not that optimistic due to the overall setup and how perfect this needs to go. 

Yea. I kind of feel the 0z euro holding sort of a life or death thing now. I've seen this movie before, and if we lose the euro tonight, it's pretty much over

5 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Euro got slightly interesting 

WOWO. It certainly did! GOGOGO

2 minutes ago, Wxoutlooksblog said:

When it's this close it's over until it's over. The ECMWF which last run had the low near Boston now has it over Cape Cod which is an improvement. It also intensifies further south, also an improvement over last run.

WX/PT

Yes. You are right. We certainly have a shot! But you know the routine, there is a real good shot that by Sunday's model runs, our NYC metro area, and the nearby suburbs within 25 miles either direction is looking at a very frustrating miss.

It's starting to look like a near certainty that some area/areas within 100 miles from us is going to get absolutely bombed with 18+ inches. Don't ya think?

And yes, it's still in play that that area can still be in our areas

3 minutes ago, mannynyc said:

Wow. Maybe this trip that I just ranted about taking will be much closer then a 2:15 drive. Might be more like 30 minutes. lol. Or maybe there is a miracle of god and Rockland County actually hits a big snowstorm and I can stay home! 

34 minutes ago, Winterweatherlover said:

I guess I have to accept this one is over. Its a tough one to swallow when the potential was really there. 

Same routine all winter. It's like being in a groundhog day movie nightmare. I honestly cannot take it anymore, and Monday afternoon, I am probably going to take a drive and get a hotel in a favored area to our north that looks to be in the 12 to 24 inch band. I'll probably take a walk through it, and go for a showshoe hike somewhere in it (I did this for a 2018 big snowstorm in North Conway NH). Went snowshoe hiking Champney Falls off the Kancamagus highway). It was amazing! I highly recommend this trip, and anywhere in general travelling for a storm if your time/job/family situation allows. 

Happily, this one looks to be much less travelling. Looks like something in western Massachusetts in the Berkshires which I am sure has some fantastic spots. And if the bullseye winds up being southern Vermont, or Western Connecticut, I am sure those areas will have a great spot for this adventure too. Should be a 2:15 drive at worst. 

I cannot keep dealing with these same pathetic outcomes on these, "events" that our areas are experiencing. Sitting here typing this as I hear the moderate rain fall outside. It's sickening

What is going on that basically every storm underperforms in the same fashion. If the model consensus says snow going to rain, we get the changeover quicker then the models thought....and if it's rain going to snow, the changeover takes longer, or is further NW, and we also get less snow then model consensus. 

Is this a part of a global warming phenomenon that the computer models haven't quite resolved yet? How can the same thing happen such a large percentage of the time and in the same fashion? 

10 minutes ago, Brasiluvsnow said:

You speak the truth but in all fairness I think that people are so beaten down by this winter that they wont believe anything (even if the morning models hold serve) until they see it outside their windows 

And even when the snow is on the ground they still might not believe it. It'll feel like a dream the way this winter is going. 

1 hour ago, JustinRP37 said:

In a thirty year period the climate should be stable. If you look at the history of the planet yes climate changes over thousands to hundreds of thousands of years. Not within 30 years. Rapid climate change has only be seen a handful of times and that is still in a period of hundreds of years which tended to lead to mass extinction events. What we are seeing right now with the shifts is rapid. Meteorology is NOT a pseudoscience. It is a peer reviewed science. All science is inexact. We are actually very good a predicting climate in the long term. We are not great at predicting weather out more than 5 days in the future. That does not make it a pseudoscience. What does tend to happen is Twitter comes along and certain people who talk about cold and snow gain more followers and thus more prominence. Unfortunately many still cling to whatever met or model shows the most snow or cold then get mad when that doesn’t happen. I’m very nervous that people aren’t paying more attention to the subtle queues we are being given. Even in years where we had plentiful snowfall recently in most of them the days of snow cover was still below average. Last I looked at the data it was something like 2 out of the last 15 winters met the average number of days with snow cover over an inch. It isn’t always about the amount of snow but what about duration? I’m 37 years old and can tell you winter is our most changing season. 

Great post!

6 hours ago, WX-PA said:

We are experiencing the worst winter ever. I mean everything is going wrong. MJO now looks like it will die again before phase 8 lol..Forget about late February and March..the pattern will not change until El nino takes over..The big question is can we break the snowless winter record from 72-73?..What do you think?

I am starting to think we can....and I am also starting to think about moving. This lack of snow is way too aggravating

22 hours ago, eduggs said:

Not saying the GFS or EC will happen, but big fail for the Mets and amateurs alike who obsess over fantasy pattern changes, long range anomaly charts, ENSO states, and stratospheric warming events. The never ending quest for a simple causal relationship to predict snowstorms coming far out in fantasy land has led to an atrophying of actual mid-range forecasting skills. "Patterns" don't produce local snowstorms. Particular combinations of synoptic features do.

 

Yea. Long term weather predicting couldn't be worse. It's far better to predict "historical averages", in a forecast 30 days out for example, then what any computer data is outputting. That said, in a changing climate, historical averages can be pretty erroneous too. And shorter term historical averages doesn't really work either, as the sample needs to be somewhat large.