garfan

Would the snow ratios be lower with the winter storm moving in on Tuesday?

I have learned over time trusting model data accumulation amounts before the storm system comes ashore is pretty much futile.

I know many of the electric companies are experiencing a high demand for electric due to the cold spell.
Here is one example from the electric coop in SW MO that serves Newton County, McDonald County, and southern portions of Jasper County.

I know many of the the people I talk to just want to know how much snow they are going to get than what type of advisory or warning is in effect.

I see the 12Z Euro does not show much of a second storm due in about Wednesday.

The NAM and Canadian have backed off. Let's see what tomorrow brings. 

I expect the usual to happen. As soon as the storm system comes ashore and get sampled, models will start to shift even further north with the storm system as they usually do. 

Rooting for the EURO. Funny how the 12Z GFS has the majority of snowfall south of I-44.  And that's not saying much. 

The Joplin metro is really struggling this winter in seeing more than just a dusting of snow. Seems when the temperature pattern is colder than normal, storm systems moving through the area lack moisture, or completely avoid the area. On the flip side, it seems when it's warmer than normal, there is usually plenty of moisture to work with (if we get a storm system) providing showers and even thunderstorms. We actually have a wetter than normal January in progress. 

Anyone else remember December 2018 when TV meteorologist in Oklahoma were predicting snowmageddon based on early model runs before sampling took place? It ended up being a major snow forecast bust. Anyway, this possible event early next week makes my mind go back to that previous time. Now no one has been forecasting any big snow amounts, except maybe Mike in OKC. I so much want a good snow! I have been watching the GFS/EURO daily, and it looks as if my area may end up with a cold rain to start, followed by a wintry mix, and then the dry slot; freezing drizzle. Hope things change between now and the event. 

I'll have what the 12Z EURO 168 hour forecast is having for SE KS and SW MO. 

I see the 12Z Euro has moved the higher frozen precipitation amounts mainly along and north of Highway 54 in Missouri. 

Do you ever mention severe weather in this thread when it's occurring during winter? 

A zoomed in look at NOAA's latest snow cover depth map. Notice the I-44 corridor is bare. 

Too bad the 12Z ECMWF has really backed off on potential snow amounts for southern Missouri and northern Arkansas.

Lake effect snow is/was occurring tonight from the north in the Joplin to Springfield area originating from Stockton Lake.

Radar suggested rainfall totals so far this morning. The red color suggest greater than two inches of rain. 

I found this article by NW AR Meteorologist Darby Bybee to interesting. 

Excerpt: "Yes, global warming is almost certainly playing a role here. You can't warm the earth little by little, and expect it won't have an affect on snow patterns in parts of the mid-south."

https://www.4029tv.com/article/streak-of-no-snow-continues/25844448                                           

This is so disappointing. Joplin hasn't seen a really good snow since the blizzard in 2011.

Monday thinking by the NWS Springfield, MO

"Models are again showing a low passing south of the area with precipitation across the region on the northern side of the system. If the track holds, the confidence in this is low for now, then the Ozarks would see the potential for a rain/snow mix for the end of the week into the weekend."

I love snow! And the number of days since the last Winter Storm Warning was issued by either weather office at Tulsa or Springfield keeps climbing. Sadness.

I wish we could get some of this in far SW MO. I'll just watch from the sidelines. 

Yikes! Not that I want to see Tulsa get a bunch of sleet and/or freezing rain. But I would like to see the models being accurate. I'll be monitoring all of this from work. 

Radar at 9:34 PM. Some of this moving northeast up I-44 looks heavy. I see the temp at Lawton is 28°.

KFOR-TV is now stating a Winter Storm Warning is in effect for portions of cenntral and southern Oklahoma.