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Posts posted by OKpowdah

  1. Agree with this. Lows don't really "stretch." Rather, the graphical depictions of surface pressure create this illusion. In this case the area of maximum upper level divergence and surface convergence appears to hang back toward the approaching vortmax in response to it being slightly stronger/more pronounced. This apparently delays the progression of the low center and associated precip without decreasing the intensity.

    Meanwhile the thermal boundary has more time to sag southward. This is a wonderfully hypothetical scenario if you are a snow lover. Not so much if you prefer warm, dry Halloweens. I still think you'd be stuck with mostly rain or slop if you're stuck deep in a valley or on the eastern shore.

    Well lows can be described as stretched, as in a pressure trough. The graphical illusion is in where the surface low is placed and the areal coverage of the first isobar.

  2. Looks similar to today's EC 48 hour prog. I don't like when the lows stretch; with these scenarios UVM is not strong and often times the NWP's OVER predict the UVM in these type scenarios.

    The low isn't anymore stretched than other runs. In fact it's a bit more contracted because the s/w is sharper. The only reason people are *perceiving* it to be more stretched is because the program is drawing the low to one side of the pressure trough rather than in the middle like previous runs.

    UVM is sure to be stronger this run for a few reasons: sharper trough -- stronger PVA, and stronger frontogenetic forcing with a tighter temp gradient in a stronger deformation zone.

    This run would result in a more concentrated band of higher snow totals ... getting on up into the 6-12" range ... *NOT my forecast*

  3. Decently defined deformation zone across NNE that sags south with the approach of the s/w. I think this will play a role in enhancing precip across central New England. This is especially when areas like SW ME and SE NH could cash in if some degree of a band develops and then swings through overnight.

    NAM is probably overdoing QPF to some extent, like normal, HOWEVER if we see something like this develop, some unexpected areas could do well