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Posts posted by OKpowdah

  1. Agreed that tomorrow is looking like the more interesting of the two days, little as that's saying. The fact that good kinematics are now expected tomorrow afternoon is a testament to how drastically the whole trough evolution has changed on the modeling.


    Current sfc obs raise a lot of questions about mid 50s dew points making a Caprock appearance before dark, as several models suggest. This was the main reason I was more excited (relatively speaking) for Saturday, since modest moisture would already be in place. *If* 53-55 F dew points make it to the Caprock and most CINH is eroded over a 2-3 county-wide zone east of the dryline, I wouldn't rule anything out.


    It's not too encouraging when there are DPs in the 40's over the Gulf waters right now. 



  2. 00z GFS shifted back to keying in on the southern s/w a little more ... less strung and a distinct PV notch over OK and KS. It's quite possible that this s/w isn't being sampled very well at the moment and is thus being underplayed ... 18z and 00z tomorrow should solidify the forecast

    Trend continues today as the s/w in question gets sampled better.

  3. Re: Typhoon Bopha,

    It's not quite a classic W Pac recurvature to downstream pattern change event, but you can still see the effects quite well.

    Notice as Bopha moves over the Philippines, the W Pac jet gains latitude and intensifies, with a long fetch of southerly 250mb irrotational wind radiating from the typhoon toward the entrance region of the jet.

    In this instance, I think Bopha definitely contributes to the retrogression of the Aleutian block toward Kamchatka by the end of the first week of December ... evolving into a rex block over E Asia.

    This allows for some flat ridging to develop over the E Pac, in RNA form, during the second week of December ... a signal that has become more popular in the long range guidance in the last few days. The developing pattern looks more and more favorable for a trough east of the Rockies.