Moderator Meteorologist
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Posts posted by OKpowdah

  1. Ugh.  What a year to go to college in Oklahoma.  60's every day this week...  


    I feel like BOX isn't quite on the banding bandwagon (so to speak) quite yet, which makes sense due to the bouncing about.  The widespread 24-36 must be them guessing at that screw zone.  But remembering Nemo, someone is going to pull 40+ out of this, with such banding and moisture.  I'd bet good money its somewhere on a line from ORH to Nashua, down to the CT coast.  Sheesh.


    lol yup. My first semester I was extremely homesick for cold and snow. And then I played frisbee on a 70 degree day in the middle of January, and I was okay with it haha.


    And taking the Oklahoma perspective on weather everywhere -- check out the SCP from the 15z SREF.

    Can't upload for some reason, but just go check it out. Median > 12 in the Gulf of Maine at 15z Tuesday

  2. The EC keeps raising heights in that day 6-11 timeframe out west, though. Did it again today.


    Still a flat ridge though, along with a very +NAO.  The northern branch of the split Pacific jet is wicked strong and just spilling right into North America through week 2.

  3. If this is right there ain't gonna be no thaw...



    You have to keep in mind that the AO is a hemispheric index. The air over the arctic will take the path of least resistance, which in this case will be over Kamchatka and across the North Pacific, not North America.

  4. There were a few discussions on the main page, the snow cover thread discussing what appears to be a sudden drop in dark green anomalies going into Nov on this zonal wind anomaly graph. If you have any thoughts; please do share.


    1) Some people seemed to have based this assumption on the 1-dimensional QBO index "slowing down" last month. 1D extrapolation of the QBO index is primitive considering the data that we have at our fingertips.


    2) Basing an assessment of the QBO, a 25-29 month oscillation, on weekly variations of local anomalies is extremely flawed.


    3) The core of the easterlies were at 20mb this past month. There's still easterly shear at 30mb. Therefore the QBO "index" would be expected to continue to fall or at least remain nearly steady for the next few months.

  5. I disagree with the premise that the QBO easterlies will weaken substantially by December and through the winter. This seems to have become a popular idea in the last week for some reason.


    The MQI phase space demonstrates how the easterlies are still descending, and the core of the anomalies will reach 30mb in January and February.



  6. Composites of west-based and Modoki El Ninos tend to show positive 500mb height anomalies near Greenland, Iceland, and Scandinavia, though I'm not sure we can definitively say that west-based Ninos cause more blocking...though I tend to think they do. 


    There is a connection, via the South America hadley cell. A west-based Nino yields a zonally overturning cell rising from 180 and sinking over SA, which weakens the SA HC. A weaker HC -> weaker ST warming -> weaker eddy heat flux in the mid latitudes -> reversal in the FC circulation and meridional mass field / PV gradient ~ blocking.