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OKpowdah

Moderator Meteorologist
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Posts posted by OKpowdah


  1. 26 minutes ago, dendrite said:

    I was looking at BGM. Is that for GYX? Link? I've been looking for their criteria page.

    https://www.weather.gov/bgm/heat

    I think some criteria changed earlier this year, but I can find the info on it. BTW...last hour yielded a 104F HX so technically GYX could say that hour didn't verify.

    That's for BOX. Not sure if GYX has a page.
    Sorry here's the link I used https://www.weather.gov/box/criteria


  2. 2 minutes ago, dendrite said:

    I'm guessing they didn't expect today to be so humid? Criteria is 2 consecutive days with at least 3 hours of 105F+ IIRC.

    2 hours >=105F

    Heat advisory requires 2 days, and the southern CWAs require 2 days for EHW.

    My thing is after observing yesterday, and then seeing the same dew points by noon today, pull the trigger. I mean they put up the warning at 2:37pm yesterday, after already 2 hours of EH criteria met. So late it's basically worthless. Waiting to see how high dew points got today is understandable. See it, then act.

    Screen Shot 2018-07-02 at 4.27.52 PM.png


  3. Figured this still would go in this thread...
    Lots of fun tomorrow too. Upstream ML low drops over the Northeast, 500mb temps plummet to around -35C. There's no low level cold advection going on behind this storm. Plus low to mid level moisture gets trapped in the broad circulation formed. We're talking total totals >50, even potentially some low level CAPE >100J/kg. 
    Recipe for heavy snow squalls with whiteout conditions, maybe some thunder.

    download (7).png

    • Like 2

  4. 3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

    It wouldn't surprise me if there were an inch or two tonight from that. The ULL goes right over head too which will help with the snow shower activity.

    The upper low is going to give you guys some fun for sure. Especially tomorrow. I mean you even have surface based CAPE tomorrow afternoon. Good recipe for squalls with whiteout conditions.


  5. 2 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

    5 possible opportunities for deep deep BM area cyclones has produced 3 epic storms, historic really.

    Beginning with the early January bomb and going forward, the last 2 and half months have delivered a very impressive frequency of rapid deepening and deep cyclones inside 65W, and even more remarkably, south of 40N. I mean multiple sub-970 xtrop lows inside 40/65 in a couple months. Amazing.


  6. 6 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

    DST really sucks. Totally useless this early in the year. 

    00z RPM out to 2 hours. Gonna be a long hour of waiting...sans the brief interruption where metfan tells us the 21z srefs look good. 

    DST is EXTREMELY useful now! We need every minute of evening daylight we can get for chasing ;)

    Prospects of epic banding over eastern New England brought me here to watch y'all get hyped up! What a stretch.

    • Like 2

  7. 5-day mean pattern from the GFS for next week has been consistently a picture of just persistent favorable conditions, thanks to ideal wavebreaking from the Plains to Midwest.

    This is one of those situations where I haven't bothered looking at any individual day yet, and probably won't until morning of. A signal like this in a time-averaged pattern is impressive and something that does not come around every year -- an indication of potential that surely will be realized by at least one or two days.

     

     

    GFS_SVRpattern_04_08.thumb.png.8e302bb045c0593edfd40aa5b95661b4.png


  8. On 10/20/2016 at 0:14 PM, ORH_wxman said:

     

    Winter forecasting is hard. There's always discussion when some new stuff comes out, and then it dies down again once it is realized that nothing can hit a seasonal forecast with accuracy that many folks want.

     

    It is particularly true for New England and the metric that just about everyone cares about...snowfall. We have basically no correlation to most of this crap that goes into a seasonal forecast (ENSO, QBO, PDO, IO, etc)...most of the stuff that would be useful isn't very predictable such as the NAO. It's easier to predict temps for a place like the southeast U.S. or parts of the west coast where the ENSO correlation is higher.

     

    I cannot remember how many times since like 2000 when I was lurking on ne.weather when everything looked awesome for a winter and it sucked or vice-versa (remember the torches predicted before the strong Nino of 2010-2011 or the epic winter forecasts before 2001-2002?). Sometimes, winter looked horrible for many in the east but we would make out great like 2007-2008 or to a lesser extent 2012-2013.

     

    I'd probably never feel good about a single set of variables in SNE for snowfall...ok, maybe predict above average snowfall in a weak Nino...lol...but that's it.

     

    2007-8 ... nickel and dimed to death, and enjoyed every bit of it.


  9. On 9/13/2016 at 1:36 PM, billgwx said:

    A little too early for me for watching snow. The SAI (Snow Advance Index) targets Eurasian snow advance south of 60N during month of October--or is it weeks 40-44, which is October 7th-November 4th? I forget exactly which. So too much snow advance before then would not be in cold/snow lovers' favor.

    What does intrigue me right now is Arctic sea ice extent, which bottomed out a few days ago and whose minimum was second lowest on record. Could be pointing toward big Siberian snow advances when we want them, especially with the ice extent near the Barents/Kara seas below average. I wonder though if the minimum occurring earlier than usual and sea ice extent already recovering could throw a bit of a wrench in the works?

    6a0133f03a1e37970b01b7c8928d29970b.png

     

    The earliest sea ice min on record, by far. Likely the result of a strong upper level cyclone, but wow this is impressive and significant - because we've reversed that positive feedback process a week earlier than normal

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