SnOvechkin

1 hour ago, Hoosier said:

Took a look at tomorrow's setup, and I definitely think there is some tornado potential.  Once again we are looking at marginal moisture (dews may actually remain in the 40s this time in the threat area, unlike Iowa where dews managed to surpass 50) but ample low level CAPE along with good shear.  

The HRRR/RAP are again more bullish than other models with dewpoints.  Observational trends tomorrow will be key.

In Ohio, evening time, there is severe potential for sure as the circulation pushes through. Idk about the Hoosier state

40 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:

new guy wants to consolidate the ohio thread with the regular threads.

Huh? These are all part of the Ohio/lakes board. And now I see a 'short/medium range SEVERE weather thread' as if it couldn't be contained in the other short/medium range thread. And I can only assume the same is done for medium/long range SEVERE vs. the other medium/long range. Good grief

Next 10 days look very snowy on the Canadian for just about everyone. Euro and GFS leave north-central Indiana out of most of the action, offering a frustrating solution with heavy snowfall narrowly missing us every time, whether to the north or south. Meanwhile GDPS and GEM place us in a bulls-eye and leave us with 8" or more on the ground when all is said and done. Whatever happens, it looks like a lot of us will see a lot of snow next week

Is it just my or could Let's Talk Weather, Winter Banter, January thread, Short/medium, Medium/Long be consolidated? Short and Long range instead of having two medium range threads. Then a Winter banter. At the very least we could remove either the monthly or the winter banter, as these five threads have a lot of overlap

Just now, SnOvechkin said:

Near New Buffalo, Lake Michigan last week. Looks like the freezing spray and tops of waves all froze solid. The water was incredibly calm; air was still, and the minimal wave action was all cutting under the mounds of ice which now comprise the shore. Was a strange feeling to realize how far out over the water I was after walking out to the edge 

 

53 minutes ago, hardypalmguy said:

Ground is 100% frost free -- I know that.

The ground may be frost-free, but the shore certainly is not!

1 hour ago, Chicago916 said:

Given the overall above average temperatures and above freezing temperatures, I'm curious how the Great Lakes ice cover compares to other years.

Near New Buffalo, Lake Michigan last week. Looks like the freezing spray and tops of waves all froze solid. The water was incredibly calm; air was still, and the minimal wave action was all cutting under the mounds of ice which now comprise the shore. Was a strange feeling to realize how far out over the water I was after walking out to the edge 

He doesn't make any predictions. The only time he even wanders into that territory he says "by 2030."  The unbelievable lack of self-awareness it takes to post something like this when you are on the side of "Children in North America and Europe won't know what snow is by the year 2015" or "There will be no ice on the polar caps in the summer" (It reached record levels in the southern hemisphere a couple years later) or "Seafront property will be underwater" (The bankers and climate fraudsters are still buying up ocean front property because the water levels haven't budged). Or the side that worries that warm temperatures -- associated with abundance of life would be something to worry about to begin with! Imagine thinking it would be better to slide into an ice age than to turn the entire planet into a tropical paradise!

You're a bunch of lunatics. Literally worse than every other religion combined. Doomsday prophecies you merely push back by 10 years every time they fail to materialize. At least the Christians believe God is coming to save them. You think you need to enslave all of the non-believers or the world is going to end in -- what is it, now? Seven years?

Please seek help.

Perfect track for Ind-Det. Unfortunately as far as models are concerned there is not enough cold air to play with. Probably see snowflakes after rain but will have little to show for it

6 hours ago, A-L-E-K said:

depressing carpet wall combo 

Carpet is more beige in person, and I love wood panels! It's cozy

13 hours ago, Jackstraw said:

Luvin' my forecast for the foreseeable future, mud, mud and then some mud.  Y'all know how much I luv mud.  Seriously, my grass is gone.  I now own mud dogs.  Shits everywhere. I give up.

Jack Straw from Wichita 
loves his muddy lawn 

5 hours ago, Baum said:

wrong thread....self anointed thread police.

You're right. I'm happy to take the discussion elsewhere; I won't pursue it any further here

5 hours ago, RobertSul said:

Ah, I see your understanding of how metaphors work is just as comprehensive as your understanding of science. 

Yes I am just lost in the wilderness -- it wasn't a critique of your metaphor. Bleach is a harmful chemical solution that only serves one purpose. Carbon is the basic building block of life. It's defined as: "the life-giving element." 

You're right that one of us is lacking even a basic understanding of this stuff

2 hours ago, RobertSul said:

Yes, adding billions of tons of man-made gasses into the atmosphere per year and gradually changing the composition and viscosity of where our weather forms has no impact. The sun is the only thing that matters! You can safely add a couple teaspoons of bleach to the glass of water you drink and it’ll be fine, because all that water originates from the faucet that you’ve been safely and reliably drinking from for years. 

And thank God we have the plucky band of  oil tycoons funding Fox News hosts to expose the malicious claims made by thousands of worldwide climatologists. I mean, clearly these climatologists got into the field not for their passion, but for the 5-digit incomes that leads them to a life of extravagant middle class luxury. Oil tycoons on the other hand lead a very modest and simple life off of the millions and billions they make, so it’s not like they’ve got a vast amount of wealth to potentially lose. 

And it’s just sheer coincidence that 3 times as many record high temperatures are broken per year than record cold temperatures, or that 10% of all weather stations, the vast majority of which are over 100 years old, in the U.S. had their all-time record temperatures broken in 2021.

Nope. Definitely a socialist conspiracy. 

cArBoN dIoXiDe iS BlEaCh

Ironically enough GFS now has an all rain solution for my area 

7 minutes ago, sbnwx85 said:

Two days ago the GFS was also showing a decent ice storm across I-80 in Indiana and Illinois. Good thing mets didn't sound the alarm about that because it's long gone now. They waited to see if there would be model consensus. Shocking concept!

That was one run and the point is the GFS showed a rain-to-snow winter storm for each and every run. We are likely getting a rain-to-snow winter storm. They didn't mention the chance. Only rain. Don't move goalposts. Nobody said anything about details

38 minutes ago, Stevo6899 said:

The timing of the phasing is key and no model will pin that down until within 24 hrs or less. So who cares what model saw it first. I don't think anyone respects any model nowadays. 

Nobody said anything about pinning down details. I suppose you think they should forego making any forecasts past the 24 hour range .  A weak rain storm all the way to the Atlantic is not a lake-cutting deep low with a deformation snow band. 

1 hour ago, Malacka11 said:

I would argue that the Euro's thermal issues are no worse than the GFS being off by a day. Also let's wait till we see what actually happens before playing this game to begin with. Not even arguing that the GFS is that bad compared to the other models I just don't know why you feel the need to fellate it full force

The point is the Euro never showed a snow storm -- for anyone. Never showed a deepening low. Until yesterday morning. The GFS made it clear there was a winter storm brewing. It's generally the first model to show winter storm setups IMO and I find it irresponsible to toss its ideas until the Euro starts to agree.

For example in my area the GFS has been consistently showing snow. GFS was giving us up to 18" in my county on some runs while NWS was "rain likely" for the duration, not even the mention of a 'chance' for snow or rain/snow. Obviously there was a chance. GFS needs to be respected a little more is all I'm saying

22 minutes ago, frostfern said:

Anyone else find SAD especially bad this winter?  Perpetually cloudy, bare ground, and in the 30s is the worst.  It's just cold enough to make me want to sleep all the time, not cold enough to be invigorating.  I'm not just being dramatic.  I'm seriously depressed right now.  Like I don't even know if I'd get excited about a snowstorm these days.  Hard time caring about anything.  Anhedonia and constant mental exhaustion for no reason is the worst. No end in sight.

I was having a conversation about this topic as a warning to my friend -- a transplant from Vegas -- just before I opened this thread! Indeed it's been extremely cloudy lately. I appreciate all the seasons and have gone for road trips just to enjoy the different scenes around the lakes... but can still feel that extra heaviness associated with the lack of sunshine. It is important to get as much sun as possible and to be aware of this effect. I will also add that it's not really a disorder if it's a perfectly natural phenomenon that affects everyone

Pictured: me, this morning, enjoying the first real sunshine of the year (I also love lasagna)

3 minutes ago, beavis1729 said:

Point taken, and I agree…but this is exactly why I get so frustrated with our winter climo.
 

Even if the average high is around 30 in January, we have so much variability around the average…which means that high temps of 40+ occur way too often for my liking. 

You really need average highs of 25 or colder in the winter season (not just January) in order to have a wintry climate, since you can absorb the thaws more easily while still preserving ice cover on the lakes and snow cover. Basically, Wausau WI and north…where (coincidentally) the “north woods” and black spruce trees begin. 

Yes it is no coincidence that our population centers lie just outside of snow belts

5 hours ago, beavis1729 said:

I hope you're being sarcastic. 

Normal lows are around 10 in Madison...so you can have frost even with a +10 to +20 departure.  A January day with a low temp of 20 in Madison is considered a torch. 

Some day, I hope sooner than later, people will no longer use the word 'normal' when they mean to say 'average.' Then we can understand that there is no such thing as normal weather

re: "if you were paying attention two days ago GFS was lagging"

Two days ago EC showed zero snow for any locations in the cont US aside from Washington State or Maine and a very weak (never reaching sub 1000mb) low spreading rain across the country while the GFS was already depicting a deepening low and a rain to moderate snow event for the midwest. 
 

vs.

Sunspots. That's it. It's a sunspot cycle. And it can be back-tested for thousands of years. You aren't a weather enthusiast. You're a socialist conspiracy theorist. Cope harder. The name-calling surely wins people over to your ridiculous assertion that it is man, and not the sun, which drives changes in climate

47 minutes ago, Malacka11 said:

I think there's a correlation between arguing the GFS is the best performer and denying climate change. On a weather forum of all places. Nonce.

Also you lose an argument when you start name-calling. Which means you lost before it even began. Excuse me while I pick up this W

45 minutes ago, Malacka11 said:

I think there's a correlation between arguing the GFS is the best performer and denying climate change. On a weather forum of all places. Nonce.

Silly me for noticing that the GFS is always ahead of the curve. Now that the EC is showing what the GFS has been printing for, oh, three days we have your attention. Cute. 

Why do they even run the GFS? lol 

36 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

SnOvechkin has risen up from out of nowhere.  Been here 8 years and is now posting.

lmao I was in Vegas and California. I used to post on the old East Coast Weather Forums