duncanwxnh

4 minutes ago, tunafish said:

Anecdotally...and fwiw... I've been tracking GYX forecast amounts to actuals for PWM this year (and last) after (Chris, I think?) mentioned they have an over-forecast bias.

This year they've been remarkably accurate.  They are under-forecasting to the tune of 7.6", half of which came on the 12/16 event.  They have only over-forecast on the 1/25 event (by 2.3")

real good team up thar

Just now, mahk_webstah said:

not if you believe GYX.  But...maybe.  If you get a lot of sleet we definitely get some significant sleet.

we have a 1400 call with them tomorrow. See what the 'true' feelings are :-) 

28 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said:

I should probably learn to look at models, but it seemed to me that people in the thread were talking about slightly further south, and slightly colder solutions, which I assumed would result in more snow up by me north of Concord. It sounds like the midlevel warmth is going further north though. The watch is still in place, but seems that they are leaning advisory.  Gene might be safe but sounds like this is not a big event south of the Lakes region and foothills.  I’m kinda surprised.

Neighbor, looks like one of those storms where I will be in Concord and Jealous of you in Bosc.... :-( 

48 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said:

those MFers are gonna steal our snow...

Just remember, we are in Central NH. There is a reason I got an ulcer before I retired :-) It'll change again

Keep our fingers crossed neighbor.

2 hours ago, mahk_webstah said:

Well I have learned that the NAM is often very good with the warm tongue.  So I hope it's coming in a little warmer than reality.  But it seems to me that some of us are on the line for a bunch of sleet and a few inches of snow vs. some sleet and 8-10 inches of snow.  And that line probably runs very close to KCON.

Aren't we just lucky! Nooot!!Time for the crampons

21 minutes ago, Great Snow 1717 said:

 

...and both were better than any current Boston TV/radio met....

In the old days we didn't have these models to drive us nuts. So many have forgot the science without the machines. I was an intern at Bos NWS the night before the Blizzard of 78 and the Senior I was with HIT the storm 100%. He didn't say 2 feet (because he didn't want to panic the public) but he knew 2-3 feet were coming.  Thank you all btw because I love the 'analysis' comments. But some of these jokes today have had this ole man ROFL ing

18 minutes ago, dendrite said:

What I should say we may get some gusts late morning once we erode that cold wedge and warm sector a bit. We’ll be ripping in that LLJ late morning.

Since we always seem to be on the transition edge it would be nice if it were Manchester this time!

21 minutes ago, SnowGiant611 said:

NWS Gray has us under a WSW, calling for 6-12”. Surprising for others here? They state periods of 1-3” snowfall rates (thundersnow, anyone) will drive total accumulations. All this storm would need to do is drift 50 or more so miles from its forecasted position and Mark and I could be in the Jack zone.


.

At this point as long as it's snow then I'll be happy. (I don't know about our neighbors in the Capital City :-( ) 

1 hour ago, mahk_webstah said:

I accept an outcome of 15" for me.

no dreaming allowed neighbor!!! (However, I agree)

12 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said:

Unlike some, usually when you’re hopeless you’re right.

I agree with you. The 'hope' side of me was pushing the logical/science side :-(.  We have the day off in the State so it's always a good day for snow. Oh well, the Old School New Englander in me will hope our little corner of the world (Concord, Boscawen, Northfield) will remain unique and fun in our weather forecasting. :-)   Bottom line, BE SAFE everyone on Monday - Jack

18 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said:

Maybe 2” light to mod.  Low visibility due to fog. Hopefully we get heavier. This evening

Here in Concord (ON the Heights Mahk) it has been snowing since 1pm. Moderate with little mix all day. Gut telling me our Max will be 4 inches (and its a pretty old gut)

30 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

There could be a mini Jack near the coastal front. It’s possible you get shit flakes just west of the front along with the sleet. 

A mini me! wooT

20 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Oh thanks.   Yeah, I'm a bit much for some people, admittedly.  While others seem to like, if not appreciate my particular brand of assholier than thou - lol

So are you a Meteorologist or some other in environmental sciences ...or?  I mean you tucked, 'in their forecasts' in that.   Most of us...well, some of us, go back a decade or more at this point of blogging this and bitching that/forum time waste... lol, kidding (well, a little :-) )  Anyway there's some familiarization among a few of us ; I just don't recognize your handle.

 

 

LOL - interned with NWS at Logan Airport during '78 (Long before Taunton) and went to BSC (Bridgewater). in early 80s.

In 2000's Radio broadcaster here in Concord for about 10 years . Should have retired a few years ago but in my role within Emergency Mgmt I can't get out of my ow way :-(  

On 12/5/2021 at 4:20 PM, weathafella said:

Hi everyone!  Thanks so much for the multitude of good wishes-it means a lot and touches my heart!  We were watching a movie around 12:30AM when out of nowhere I got lightheaded and experienced severe vertigo.   I also got nauseous and thought I was having a heart attack even though I didn’t have much chest pain.  On the way to the emergency room my wife had to pull over t..............

 

Glad you went because my HA was masked by the fact, I had ZERO Chest Pain. Instead, I had Jaw Pain! (Another sign to watch) Welcome back to the insane asylum 

25 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I'm sure this has been mentioned - all do creds and salutations ...

(Lines deleted tom keep down length)

Just to let you know, I ALWAYS enjoy and respect your analytical comments!! Some of us have people lives in their forecasts and every ounce of input is always enjoyed! (Well, most :-) ) 

58 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

I wanna be Jack Nicholson. We know Scooter is nurse Ratchet. Anthony is Martini. Kevin is Billy Bibitt, Ray  is Charlie Cheswick, Garth as Chief  Will as Dr John. Wolfe as Dale Harding . RUNNAWAYICEBERG as Max

I see me!! 

Just now, Ginx snewx said:

Hey Jack just talked to Jerry thinks he's heading home soon.

Great news, its never fun. Appreciate!!

13 hours ago, weathafella said:

I’m heading to the hospital-some concerning symptoms so I doubt I’ll do pbp…

I've quietly been on this forum for years. Being a 'slightly' elder retired meteorologist, I love this forum.  Special group of geeks.  Jerry, I know the feeling and hope your symptoms turn out to be just a warning. Thinking and praying for thee! Always, Jack (Concord NH formerly Boston)

56 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said:

Just go 1-2 for our area.  If it is 3 nobody will notice.  cept the weenies

HEY neighbor, I represent that  

4 hours ago, dendrite said:

Not true. I talk about Tolland all of the time.

Dendrite - do u really feel in the 4 range? I was feeling Concord is in one of our 2019/2020 'on the edge of everything' storms. (Have faith in your thoughts)

4 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Guess I should add 3.9" total snow here. Pretty much just spitting -ZL since I got home around 3pm.

Down here in Concord we are starting to ice up. Main roads still ok but the heavy mist we've had all day is adding up!  Stay safe tomorrow

Just now, CoastalWx said:

It’s snowing. I’m happy. But jeez some of you need a reality check. 

Snow starvation is an issue this season I guess :-(

Dendrite, they'er talking about you on Boston TV. Well, Dendrites anyway :-) 

43 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said:

Not for the mountains of VT and NH thats pretty much a lock there. Some may approach double digits with the upslope

In the end I hope so. our TRAIL system needs it really bad!!