Eastatlwx

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Everything posted by Eastatlwx

  1. Beautiful day so March forward to Wednesday, another sneak peek of spring like temps!
  2. the mtns are just so good at blocking the cold, marginal event is likely at its best
  3. This kind of setup where the southeast ridge flexes just enough favors ark-ms-tn-al, these situations rarely work for atl eastward because the nw flow is just not great and the cold can't come over mtns fast enough, so upstate sc I can't see anything for you at all
  4. Lows will ride along the southeast ridge deflecting them towards the lakes which draw up gulf moisture and warm air advection into our region, however there is going to be cold air damming stuck in place initially because confluence in the short range, as storms ride along the boundary we will receive plentiful rain, however this looks to be a short term warm up and cold should spread eastward in the medium range.
  5. Contrary to last year, the SST in the gulf are not below average however this may change as we progess through the season, the current tends to float around obviously like other ocean currents. This above anomaly if persisent will increase the moisture available from the gulf fueling thunderstorms, in the short to medium range we will have a sneak peek at spring temperature wise and hopefully precipitation wise pt.1
  6. The winter made its own name, now we are heading into meteorological spring in a few days. I will add pictures and explanation when I get home
  7. Does anybody know where I can find more about the ice accreation process and how to forecast the amount of accreation related to the actual precipitation falling?
  8. Vorticity - thought it was a fascinating video!
  9. No, but prob have a better chance at forecasting in general snow next year then models past 5 days this year!
  10. yeah we will prob get snow next year
  11. Guys I got to get this off my chest, delete it mods if it is too harsh but please don't ban me, this winter is absolutely bs, it's over its freaking over, forget it and what makes it worse is the dumb models giving us false hope, Ive lost hope in weather, this has never happened, it's not pessimistic it is reality, so as I have fallen off the cliff, I did six feet to bury my hopes
  12. JB said look for wintry weather in the southeast 3/4 weeks from now looking at the JMA on back edge of cold
  13. heck yeah man I'll be watching too, thanks for the heads up!
  14. Ka boo ya! BOOM shacka lacka lack! TD SEAHAWKS!
  15. idk for what its worth, Covington, GA reported quarter size hail this morning in like 43 degrees, with stronger dynamics in play and warmer temps I expect to see something decent
  16. Page 20 of 21 shows the composites for (NDJ) and their significiances of the MJO Phases. Regarding (DJF) composites: phases 3/4/5 all the show warmer then average temperatures for us, including 80% confidence of the influence regarding those temperatures, even phases 3/4/5 for the (NDJ) composites also all show warmth for us except at lower confidence levels being phase 4 the lowest with about 70% to a 80% confidence, with phase 6 being the highest confidence with about 95%. With the GFS Ensembles going into 3/4/5 with MJO showing warmth with high confidence regarding (DJF) and even with a lag, seems to go against its cold Ensembles. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/mjoupdate.pdf http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/Composites/Temperature/DJF/combined_image.png
  17. wind direction? http://www.griffin.uga.edu/aemn/cgi-bin/AEMN.pl?site=AAAA&report=XW
  18. If you would like to follow me it is- @conyersweather