Eastatlwx

Members
  • Content Count

    137
  • Joined

  • Last visited

Everything posted by Eastatlwx

  1. i went on tropical tidbits and I didnt find the 18z to bring the cyclone down to 941 mb but only found like 980mb and couldn't find the one that said high resolution
  2. Someone on Twitter posted this
  3. we don't want the navgem lmao, has it strong then pulls north
  4. we want it just north of the islands, I think so it isn't too far north and little to no land interaction
  5. yeah, where is the shear at?
  6. same, but if it does end up like it would happen you might as well embrace it cause there is nothing that can be done to stop it.
  7. completely agree, where can I get this analyzed data once it comes out?
  8. that is what I am talking about! I think chances are increasing of a possible threat to somewhere around the southeast, can it thread the needle?
  9. .14" today, high PWATS are really showing themselves today, adds up very quickly with thick drops
  10. Talk about rain shield, rainfall for the upstate of sc past 60-90 days, assuming some of you leave in the rain shield areas
  11. Gfs shows it going into Northwest into Japan out 10 days, looks like the high pressure is directing it to Japan. Constructive Criticism needed
  12. I don't think it is gunna recurve, let me check data real quick
  13. I have been lurking for about 2 years and only a few post here and there
  14. I wanted to add what I think is the best lightning picture I have ever took, this storm was in conyers and Covington ga, cool fact the surface based cape was like 4000 kg/j that day, several lightning injuries happened that day
  15. it was with a camera phone, here is a few more pictures that day!
  16. It has begun, I have also attached a lightning picture I took in GA the other day chasing. ...SUMMARY... SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE EXPECTED FROM THE OZARKS EASTWARD ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY DURING THE DAY AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. ...SYNOPSIS... A BROAD AREA OF WSWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL EXIST ACROSS CONUS WITH TWO MAIN SHORTWAVE TROUGHS. ONE WILL DEVELOP EWD ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES WITH SURFACE LOW OVER ONTARIO BUT A COLD FRONT WILL TRAIL SWD ACROSS LOWER MI...IL AND MO BY LATE AFTERNOON. SRN PORTIONS OF THIS FRONT ARE FORECAST TO STALL AND BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY OVER SRN MO. TO THE W...A SECONDARY TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS STATES DURING THE DAY WITH A SFC LOW DEVELOPING OVER SRN CO BY AFTERNOON. THIS WAVE IS FORECAST TO SHIFT EWD ACROSS KS/OK AND INTO SWRN MO/NWRN AR BY 12Z FRI AND INTERACT WITH THE BOUNDARY OVER SRN MO. AHEAD OF THESE AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARIES...DEWPOINTS WELL INTO THE 60S F WILL SPREAD NWD ACROSS THE ARKLATEX WITH 60S AS FAR N AS SRN KS INTO SRN INDIANA. THIS WILL CREATE A LARGE AREA OF INSTABILITY BENEATH AMPLE SHEAR PROFILES WITH SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD. ...MID MS INTO THE OH VALLEY... SCATTERED STORMS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING ALONG THE DECELERATING COLD FRONT/OUTFLOW COMPOSITE ACROSS IL AND MO WITH SOME MARGINAL WIND/HAIL THREAT ONGOING. THE GREATER THREAT WILL BE LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AS DESTABILIZATION OCCURS TO THE E OVER ACROSS SRN IL...INDIANA...WRN KY AND SERN MO. A REJUVENATION OF STORMS IS LIKELY ALONG THE FRONT/OUTFLOW...AND VEERING WINDS WITH HEIGHT WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS AND A FEW. Day 2: SPC AC 020558 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1258 AM CDT THU APR 02 2015 VALID 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS AN ENH RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE TN VALLEY AREA SWWD ACROSS NRN MS/NWRN AR/SERN AR/NERN LA... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE MID OH VALLEY SWWD INTO E TX... ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE UPPER OH VALLEY SWWD TO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY OF S TX... ...SUMMARY... SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE EASTERN HALF OF TEXAS FRIDAY; SOME OF THESE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME SEVERE DURING THE AFTERNOON FROM THE WEST SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS INTO TEXAS. ...SYNOPSIS... WHILE A GULF OF AK UPPER LOW/TROUGH SHIFTS SSEWD ALONG THE BC COAST AND BEGINS AFFECTING THE PAC NW...A SECOND TROUGH IS PROGGED TO CONTINUE ADVANCING EWD ACROSS THE MIDWEST/OH VALLEY AREA DAY 2/FRI./ AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT INITIALLY EXTENDING FROM NEW ENGLAND WSWWD INTO OK/TX IS FORECAST TO PROGRESS EWD ACROSS THE TN/MID AND LOWER MS/SABINE RIVER VALLEYS WITH TIME. BY THE END OF THE PERIOD...THE FRONT SHOULD STRETCH FROM A DEEPENING LOW OVER SRN NEW ENGLAND SWWD ACROSS THE ATLANTIC AND GULF COASTAL AREAS...WHILE CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES ACROSS THE ERN 2/3 OF THE COUNTRY. ...MID OH/TN VALLEYS SWWD ACROSS THE LOWER MS/SABINE VALLEYS... CONVECTION SHOULD BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE PERIOD INVOF THE COLD FRONT...FROM THE OZARKS EWD ACROSS THE OH VALLEY. SOME LINGERING SEVERE RISK MAY ACCOMPANY THIS CONVECTION -- PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE OZARKS AREA. MEANWHILE...AS THE FRONT ADVANCES SEWD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...SOME HEATING OF THE MOIST PRE-FRONTAL BOUNDARY LAYER WILL YIELD MODERATE DESTABILIZATION. THIS SHOULD FUEL EVENTUAL/VIGOROUS STORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE FRONT BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON...INITIALLY WITHIN A ZONE ROUGHLY FROM WRN KY SWWD TO NRN LA. INITIAL STORMS WILL LIKELY BECOME SUPERCELLULAR GIVEN WEAKLY VEERING/INCREASING FLOW WITH HEIGHT YIELD SHEAR FAVORABLE FOR UPDRAFT ROTATION. THOUGH TORNADO RISK SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED DUE TO MODEST LOW-LEVEL SHEAR EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT...LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS ARE EXPECTED. WITH TIME...UPSCALE GROWTH INTO A MORE LINEAR EVENT WILL SUPPORT ONGOING DAMAGING WIND RISK INTO THE EVENING HOURS. WITH HEATING MUCH MORE UNCERTAIN INTO THE UPPER OH VALLEY AND THUS INSTABILITY LIKELY WEAKER...LOWER/LESS WIDESPREAD RISK FOR HAIL/WIND IS EXPECTED. MEANWHILE ACROSS SERN/S TX...STORMS WILL LIKELY REMAIN ISOLATED AT BEST ALONG THE BOUNDARY -- WITH MID-LEVEL ASCENT REMAINING WELL TO THE N/NE OF THIS REGION AND THUS LIKELIHOOD FOR CAPPING TO REMAIN IN PLACE THUS HINDERING DEVELOPMENT. STILL...CAPE/SHEAR WOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR ROTATING UPDRAFTS AND ASSOCIATED SEVERE RISK WITH ANY CELL WHICH COULD BECOME EVOLVE ACROSS THIS AREA. ..GOSS.. 04/02/2015
  17. well if you don't like spring or summer then stop posting useless banter on how you hate it so much in this thread,the S word is over, stop hoping of something that is just not there.
  18. Here it is guys, the beautiful lady ms. Spring
  19. sorry man, it was the supercell in eastern North Carolina today, I forgot to put on the cities and towns, I look forward to posting more when severe weather arrives.