rolltide_130

It took 7 years but I finally saw a season of sustained A/AA activity.. although I know that may be a controversial statement in itself lol. The pattern looks somewhat similar to last winter at this time so I'll stick with persistence. 

1345

First high risk 4/20 

1050 tornadoes 

First (and only) high risk May 24th 

I think overall things are improved from 2018, but I'm still wary of the state of the PDO until there starts to be a long term reversal of its pattern (and it doesn't help that the NOAA site I've relied on for it is shut down currently) 

I think we see at least somewhat of an improvement over 2018 with a lot of that reasoning being that 2018, at least in the modern era, is the rock bottom in terms of an active severe weather year. Going to have to closely watch for any sort of late season SSW shenanigans again like what happened last year, but the current pattern looks improved to hopefully set the stage for a better season W of I-35. 

As for Dixie, I imagine we'll get some threats here as well but nothing really sticks out to me about the Dixie season as of right now. Years coming off a Nino are pretty hit-and-miss here, but the PDO plays a large role in that and IIRC its positive still but I don't know where to access that data outside the currently closed NOAA pages. 

And today was downgraded even further to Slight, with a Marginal where the original MDT was. 

I think we may be locked in to 2018 being the worst severe season on record at this point, even worse than the 1980s... this is abysmal. 

Just now, Quincy said:

In all honesty, the moderate seemed a bit overdone. It's a very complex setup and it doesn't take much to throw a wrench in higher-end potential, especially with a seasonally anomalous setup so far south. 

On the bright side, drought areas have and should continue to get drenched with much needed rainfall. 

That's true. However as for severe, I'm now back into looking towards the next season. 

2019, at least for now, looks a bit more promising in terms of seasonal analogs (I saw 2010, 2007, and 2005 mentioned - 2010 and 2007 both being good years and 2005 not being great but still a massive upgrade over this year), but we'll have to see if that holds or if, when we do get good setups, mesoscale features don't actually ruin it. 

21 hours ago, Quincy said:

You do realize tomorrow was upgraded to a moderate risk? Granted it's not looking like an outbreak of discrete storms, but significant  severe seems likely given the degree of shear and instability expected. 

Before being downgraded back to Enhanced risk. 

On that note, today and tomorrow have both trended down significantly. 

Expect next week to do the same within 36 hours.. that's all I really have to say about that. It will happen. 

Tomorrow is a giant big pile of "meh" on the nightly guidance IMHO. 

Looks like an early/midday MCS washout which may kill the threat entirely unless this just doesn't materialize, although 999/1000 times it does and it puts a damper on things. Not impressed at all tonight. 

Don't rule out a severe threat for the first few days of June - GFS has been holding the idea and some of the thermos are flat out riduclious for Dixie Alley. Shear is meh but if some of the CAPE profiles verify, it may not matter much especially with the SE motion that seems likely. 

3 hours ago, Chinook said:

For this data, I have looked at 2010-2017, 8-year climatology of severe weather reports per day. All numbers come from http://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/online/monthly/newm.html

March tornadoes have been relatively low in this 8-year time period, compared to April. This is probably due to weak severe weather setups in March, over a period of years.

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Edit: a longer-term climatology of tornadoes/month is posted here: http://www.ustornadoes.com/2016/04/06/annual-and-monthly-tornado-averages-across-the-united-states/

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What would happen to the data if you removed April 2011 from the dataset? I noticed that April averaged more tornado reports per day than May but that seems to be heavily skewed by 2011. 

Going to need to watch these next couple of weeks closely.. some alarming analogs are popping up and the trend is towards a massive, low-amplitude trough to sweep through here within the D 10-15 range. Those can spell trouble.. 

Oof, the NAM has a potentially isolated but significant event near Enid on the 12z run for Sunday evening. Dryline bulge close to the triple point.. that can spell trouble. 

6 hours ago, monsoonman1 said:

Wouldn't sleep on Saturday, still some questions but parameters seem to be there.

Sent from my SM-G920V using Tapatalk
 

NE Texas may be needing a close watch.. this is definitely one of the more bizzare systems in terms of model handling that I've seen. 

Euro holding on to what may be a potentially substantial threat on Monday across areas E of I-35 and into AR/MO. Almost looks like more of an April/May setup with how much that SE ridge is pumping itself up, and this will be coupled with a strong LLJ response. This could be the first significant severe threat of the year.. 

On 2/5/2018 at 8:45 AM, nrgjeff said:

Kelvin wave may save the first half of severe season. Dixie is due for a whippin'. 

Literally anywhere is due for a whippin by this point. Our last event that was a synoptically evident violent event multiple days out was 4/28/14

5 hours ago, nrgjeff said:

Just need it to hold on until May for my Plains trip. If the Euro weeklies are right about weeks 5-6, action should get rolling in Dixie in March. CFS would keep things quiet longer. With La Nina still going in March I have to learn toward the Euro here. 

What significance would Nina lasting in May have for the plains? Increased rainfall for March/April? I have a trip out there this May as well but I've more or less written off any hope of much action west of the I-35 corridor and I'm more prepped for an E OK/KS year this year. 

11 minutes ago, ouamber said:

Just looked at the GFS and Euro and it disgusts me! Once again...our best chance at a storm or any moisture is being pulled east and south. I thought there was supposed to be a pattern change??? If we get nothing for that February 1st storm...I'm genuinely worried that will be out last chance at winter. Terrible!

At this point, anything putting a dent in the drought is a win. This could be a bad one..

Both weeklies and some of the 11-15 day ensembles are starting to hint at a new trough in the Rockies. Some have it unseasonably south. Others have things northern Plains and Upper Midwest which is June Nino-ish. Either way a chaser has to like about a third of the way into June. North would be nice with smaller crowds.

Was hinting at possibly as far south into Dixie a couple days ago. Not sure if I buy it but that sure would be something for that part of the country. 

Long-range ensembles have begun to pick up on a pretty progressive central/eastern ridging and western troughing pattern towards the end of the run, with some good consistency between all 3 ensembles. Has that trough swinging into the southwest at the end of the run and ejecting out over the plains. CFS seems to have keyed in on this system as well, and seems to be favoring TX/OK and eastward into Dixie for a shot at possibly some severe weather within the 9th-12th timeframe. 

Not really seeing the significant threat part of this right now. Lack of thermodynamics and a cold air intrusion into the Gulf in the days leading up to this system could put a lid on this one. Could still be good for a marginal low CAPE/high shear setup, but I'm not sold on this being a significant threat unless thermodynamic profiles start trending upward. 

Forget about severe weather, TX and OK are going to be underwater by the end of next weekend. That's going to be the bigger news over the next week.

I'm really getting worried about a significant tornado running over a populated area that's been hammered by rain. Seeing as a lot of storm shelters are failing because of water, there may very well be a situation in which they could get pulled out of the ground and thrown, or even more cases of people becoming trapped in them because of floodwater.