rolltide_130

7 hours ago, andyhb said:

D3 ENH, partially hatched for N TX and a good chunk of OK. Given the forcing near the cold front and it's rather fast motion, convection will almost certainly be linear/undercut with time in that area (damaging winds, etc.). I'm a bit curious to see if we can get a few discrete cells popping out ahead given the degree of forecast low level shear and considerable BL moisture content (into the upper percentile for this time of year in this area) across guidance.

This prospect would be more likely in a case where a more well developed secondary surface low can develop along the low pressure trough extending southward from the primary low over the Prairies, which would then amplify low level convergence/surface backing ahead of the front. Such a low is spurned on by the southern in a pair of vorticity maxima that emerges from the Four Corners region through the morning and afternoon Saturday. There is also a bit of a coupled upper jet structure overhead enhancing divergence aloft, which would also imply increased large scale ascent ahead of the front.

The 12z GFS is showing a hint of a possible secondary low developing perhaps along the I-40 corridor near Elk City by 0z Saturday evening. If that comes to fruition, there could be a locally enhanced area in central and southern/SW OK.

Both weeklies and some of the 11-15 day ensembles are starting to hint at a new trough in the Rockies. Some have it unseasonably south. Others have things northern Plains and Upper Midwest which is June Nino-ish. Either way a chaser has to like about a third of the way into June. North would be nice with smaller crowds.

Was hinting at possibly as far south into Dixie a couple days ago. Not sure if I buy it but that sure would be something for that part of the country. 

Long-range ensembles have begun to pick up on a pretty progressive central/eastern ridging and western troughing pattern towards the end of the run, with some good consistency between all 3 ensembles. Has that trough swinging into the southwest at the end of the run and ejecting out over the plains. CFS seems to have keyed in on this system as well, and seems to be favoring TX/OK and eastward into Dixie for a shot at possibly some severe weather within the 9th-12th timeframe. 

Not really seeing the significant threat part of this right now. Lack of thermodynamics and a cold air intrusion into the Gulf in the days leading up to this system could put a lid on this one. Could still be good for a marginal low CAPE/high shear setup, but I'm not sold on this being a significant threat unless thermodynamic profiles start trending upward. 

It 2015'd itself. Squalled out quick and didn't get any discrete action. Man, this year really bites severe wise.

Sent from my GT-N8010

Good ol' 2015

Oh, you have a good setup for some discrete, chasable storms? Have some junk convection.

Oh, there's no junk convection? Have yourself a fat, messy MCS without a single SVR warning on it.

Well this got messy fast. NE and IA already looks like a bust.

Liking what I'm seeing on the radar so far. Looks like the MCS cleared out and doesn't show any plans of backbuilding at the current moment. If that area can get a good few hours of unfiltered sun I'm liking the chances of an isolated strong TOR or two.

Awesome tornado.

 

Another thing you can take from the video is to never trust Reed Timmer's judgement in close proximity to tornadoes. Even if he says, "I promise!"

From about 5:00 onward I'd say it reminds me of El Reno '13. Crazy stuff.

Next in line for this year's list of tornadoes that have produced insane motion...

http://youtu.be/T3ymPt91G14

Facebook post from a storm chaser who was on this tornado states that asphalt was scoured from a road by the tornado. Similar report from Reed Timmer.

https://www.facebook.com/GregJohnsonTornadoHunter/posts/995835310447136?hc_location=ufi

Very strong couplet NW of Fedora. TDS as well.

Tornado was confirmed on broadcast media, although I have no access to the source that saw it.

Forget about severe weather, TX and OK are going to be underwater by the end of next weekend. That's going to be the bigger news over the next week.

I'm really getting worried about a significant tornado running over a populated area that's been hammered by rain. Seeing as a lot of storm shelters are failing because of water, there may very well be a situation in which they could get pulled out of the ground and thrown, or even more cases of people becoming trapped in them because of floodwater.