Misstertwister

I’m battling a couple of sick kids that need to go down for bed. Looks like most the bad stuff is south and east of us in Edmond/Deer Creek for the night. Opinion on here from the professionals to put the kids to bed and tuck in for the night? I know the watch is until 3AM but exhausted from all the activity today and taking care of the sick kids 

Boy that cold front sure is racing into western Ok. Methinks this undercuts and goes linear fast. Environment too ripe and storms popping up too quickly. 

Hey all. I come on here for weather updates. I am learning how to read analogs. However, I’ve got a business trip coming up in New Orleans and ill be driving in from East Texas Wednesday and arriving in NO Wednesday afternoon. Is this more of an AL/MS event or Louisiana/NO also?

ill obviously be watching the SPc next few days but does travel and stay in NO look alright for Wednesday?

This just goes to show how hard it is to forecast these severe storms. The SPC does a great job for the most part highlighting the risk area but OKC metro was under a very low risk of tornadoes today. I know these weren’t classic tornadoes in terms of funnels but more or less QLCS spin ups and a lot of people don’t understand just how dangerous and life threatening they are because it’s not a traditional tornadoes. 

And to add there were fatalities in a hotel proably from people traveling and had no clue about the weather in the area. 

Has anyone looked at tomorrow for SW/C. OK?  Looks like a line of storms blowing thru at 21z on the 00Z run? But I don’t know how to interpret if it’s run of the mill storms or severe

1 minute ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said:

I don't think we have peaked from SW MO to SE OK at all, parameters support Supercells producing tornadoes instead.

You mean NE OK?

19 minutes ago, pen_artist said:

SPC was on the mark today with this threat. Kudos to them. Although we just became aware of a threat like this only around 24 hours ago they did a good job. The only thing ofc would be the issuance of the PDS watch in Central OK

Let’s not step over dollars to pick up dimes

13 minutes ago, pen_artist said:

SPC was on the mark today with this threat. Kudos to them. Although we just became aware of a threat like this only around 24 hours ago they did a good job. The only thing ofc would be the issuance of the PDS watch in Central OK

Let’s not step over dollars to pick up dimes

While I understand forecasting weather is probably not easy but this weather forming down around burkburnett and Wichita Falls wasn’t even in a risk area for two days. And now it’s got a monster cell. 

This goes to show is how weather can humble us

22 minutes ago, bdgwx said:

According to the SPC mesoanalysis the newer VTP and EEHI parameters are very high in NW OK right now. If storms could get a bit more isolated these things might drop some strong tornadoes in a hurry. I will say the cell south of Tulsa has a lot of room to work with.

You mean NE OK

Mike Morgan just called a hook a stinger tail or the scorpions tail. I’ve never heard that. Does he make up his own language?

2 minutes ago, wildwestpb said:

Those are updraft helocity tracks where hail cores or possible tornadoes could be.

Thank you. I love this forum

Random question as we all watch this unfold. 

What are the darker red streaks on a CAM? 

When I do an HRRR loop say for UH reflectivity > 25?  I’ve alwasy wondered what those signify?

thanks. 

Well despite the conditional or not the weather outside just feels a lot worse than Monday did. 

Im sweating inside my house with the AC on

Uh, wasn’t today a conditional today for some areas? Now a PDS?  You just never know with the weather

When a sounding is posted is that for a specific area or the atmosphere in general?  Like, where so this sounding at lat/lon?

and as green as I am isn’t that a stout cap at 850mb?

don’t beat me up. I am still trying to learn how to read these thing

So is this cloudiness northwest of the OKC metro goign to delay/hamper initiation?

i feel like a lot people around here, are weather exhausted and may think today doesn’t have some risk. 

26 minutes ago, KeganR said:

Tomorrow’s environment is incredible.

Data in the morning sounding is going to be extremely telling.

More incredible than Monday’s? I know that didn’t yield what was forecasted but it was talked about several days out

To preface I don’t really know how to read soundings. I only look at that little box although i take that with a grain of salt

So being a novice i looked at the NAM 3k CAM and at 18z showed several cells over OKC metro with a PDS Tor sounding. Am i reading that right? 

9 minutes ago, weatherextreme said:

Definitely not over

 

NWS Norman

 

✔@NWSNorman

 · 58m

 

Replying to @NWSNorman

Given the lack of large scale forcing for pressure rises and the strong low-level jet the front will have a hard time making anything more than very slow progress, even with the support of outflow.

 

NWS Norman‏Verified account @NWSNorman 59m59 minutes ago

More

This leaves all areas south of the boundary in an exceptionally favorable environment for tornadoes into tonight. We still believe considerable severe weather is yet to come and areas in the warm sector should remain vigilant.

Where’s the boundary? Me thinks NW OK?edmond area is north of the boundary. It’s fricking cold out when I took my dogs for a walk in Deer creek

Is there cold front crashing from NW to SE in Oklahoma?  

55 minutes ago, pbrussell said:

Keep an eye on the Blair ok storm at kfdr...

Is that low slowing down some slightly? Seems like some new thinking might have it lagging a little further west now and I-35 corridor more of a late evening threat or MCS

15 minutes ago, Indystorm said:

18z NAM 3k has initiation in the TX/OK panhandles in the morning and moves to central OK by late afternoon.  But this is one run of one model.  Keep alert to future forecasts.

Do you look at composite reflectivy dbz?

 I use pivotal weather.