ohiocat5908

Quite a difference between the 12km and 3km NAM snowfall amounts. Wonder if the 3km is picking up on a quicker transition to snow over NE Indiana and NW Ohio??

Another insane GFS run. 40 hours of continuous snow with 2.84" of all snow QPF at kTOL. Would shatter the snowfall record here. With wind gusts 35-40 from hours 84 to 99. Crazy to think of how historic this storm could be. A true blizzard.

Are those ens at 10:1??

If that GFS run were to verify (it wont) that would be beyond historic. Hard to imagine the impact that would cause. Large 2"+ QPF of all snow for a large portion of the region. 

Just went out to measure. 6 to 6.5 depending on surface being wood/grass/metal

Final call for wave #2: 11.5" for KTOL

Got about 1.5" from the overnight wave. Wave 2  now getting underway. Pumped. 

NAM trying to push towards blizzard like conditions in NW OH for tomorrow night. Wind gusting 30-40 with 1"/hr snowfall rates for about a 6-8 hour time frame.

Breaking the waves down for Toledo Metro, I'm thinking 2-3 for wave #1 and 7-9 for wave #2 for a total of 9-12. I came to this conclusion by taking the average qpf of all models minus the highest (NAM3k) and lowest (GEM) which ended up being 0.62" and a ratio of 15-18:1 overall. 

Looking at trends there should be a WWA for wave #1 and a WSW for wave #2. 

I'd pay big $$ for the 3k NAM to verify

Just now, dilly84 said:

0 chance it'll be 10:1

I know that. I just don't believe the ratios spit out at WB and want to compare more apples to apples to the 12Z run.

What's the 10:1 map look like??

Fully prepared for the Low Party to be at my house. 

Those snow maps may need to become my new avatar. 

2 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said:

The euro is at least flat and weak with that lead wave compared to the GFS.

Similar to the UKMET

FV3 further North and stronger than GFS