vespasian70

1 minute ago, buckeye said:

6z gfs is moving more towards that look, although it's snow is still primarily anafrontal.    At 5h the 6z euro and gfs have a similar orientation and shape of the PV but the euro keeps more energy in the sw allowing heights to rise in the east.   The gfs bundles most of the energy in the ns and so the precip focus is strictly on the front. 

It's no longer about rooting for a southern trend to the clipper, (that ship sailed anyways).  Now we want the opposite to happen, a further north and weak clipper.  The PV diving south through the northern plains will have a better chance to deepen and sharpen the trough with the clipper out of the way.   That should slow the front and hopefully gives us a shot of having something spin up it.

The last panel of the 12z NAM looked very intriguing for us.

4 hours ago, buckeye said:

Euro isn't bad.  It has a different way of giving us snow.  Sends the clipper from Chicago to Detroit with not much precip at all for us from the actual low.  But then develops a low on the front that goes from AL to KY, which is how we get our snow. 

Something to watch for in future runs.  We might actually be better off with a further north low to allow enough space and timing for a scenario like that to play out.

Yea, that may be out best shot before we go bitterly cold and dry. Wasn't the GFS trying to this as well?

FWIW, FV3 still south.

I haven't been checking, is the GFS the only model showing this far north solution? The euro looks like weak sauce and south.

*Edit* 18z NAM looks like the last panel is heading in the right direction for us. Again

11 minutes ago, buckeye said:

Hope the gfs is wrong....that would be a really insulting way to usher in a record cold outbreak. 

At least it's still 4 or so days out. Lots of time for adjustments.

Picked up around an inch this morning. Nice to see the ground white again! Hopefully more to come before the polar hammer comes down next week.

06z FV3 more robust hit for OH.

00z Euro took the clipper early next week south. Not as strong as previous runs.

HRRR is still playing up tonight's backend snow. Current radar isn't having any of it. We shall see ...

11 minutes ago, buckeye said:

gfs and gem still north with the mon clipper.   A lot depends on the orientation and how the PV rotates as the storm rides around the edge out of the north central states.  Still a lot could change in 5 days, and the old 'bullseye' rule applies.   That's one hell of a brutal air mass on it's heels.   I'm having a hard time believing it's going to cut up towards north east OH with that air mass....  but of course that's probably the weenie in me talking.

I wouldn't want to be in the bullseye 5 or 6 days out. The track will move ... no place for it to go but south.

15 minutes ago, dilly84 said:

Holy God. What a clipper on monday.

A clipper on steroids! Wow.

19 minutes ago, buckeye said:

Both the 18zgfs, and fv3 both trended significantly south with the monday clipper.  Euro is still north but I bet it also comes south.   It would be unusual for such a strong clipper to go through northern OH, especially this time of year with the PV so far south.

 

Isn't the Euro showing a couple of inches for CMH tomorrow night?

FWIW regarding the backend snow event tomorrow.

3 minutes ago, Buckeye1994 said:

18z GFS. 168 hours. Shifted the Monday clipper 

Hopefully a trend!

I find that clippers develop quite nicely as we get closer to the event. All aboard the clipper train!

9 hours ago, buckeye said:

I'd still keep an eye out for some backside lov'n, (no sexual inuendo intended), possibly thursday night.   Wouldn't be surprised to see that come a little further west.  Wouldn't be a biggie, but might be good enough to cover the grass back up after we lose the snow cover from the rain.

Looks like WPC agrees with you.

00z FV3 showing a decent clipper a week from now. Pattern still looks active.

The end result of a week's worth of tracking.

9 hours ago, snowlover2 said:

0z GFS is pretty robust with the clipper Sat/Sun.

Lock it in!

3 hours ago, jbcmh81 said:

So... what's on the horizon?

Euro showing some back end snow behind the Tue/Weds system.

4 hours ago, buckeye said:

Hard to measure, but after a drive around ....5-6".... Jay?

This had a huge local variability with snow amounts probably due to the convective nature.   There were areas where it looked like they got 8 or 10 inches and only a couple miles away, maybe 3 or 4.  Curious what you central Ohio guys think on amounts in your back yard.

That's what I would say it looks like around here. Some places did slightly better than others. Not bad considering it only lasted 5 or 6 hours. The lake effect snow showers this morning was a nice touch too.

I think we ended up with 4" from the deformation band last night, kind of hard to tell with all the blowing and drifting. Looks like a snow globe out there this morning.

Looks like some potential out there in the long range for stuff to track. Glad to have winter back!

We're about to get dry slotted.

Just now, dilly84 said:

Oh yea. Like I said getting close to half inch 

Well f*ck.

If this deformation band doesn't get it's act together this may rank as one of the worst storms we've tracked.

7 minutes ago, dilly84 said:

Did a lot of that fzra stick to the trees?

Just now, Angrysummons said:

You guys should be turning over soon. Even 4 inches will be nice with waa pump like this.

You were safe with your 2"-12" call.

Just now, buckeye said:

Was out driving in Westerville .  rain, sleet, slush drops.

Hopefully you'll see snow by 8pm.