weatherbubba

Looking at that EURO model with the associated wind field and accumulation maps, the western half of NC and SC could see blizzard conditions while the eastern half of that area would see ice that would put that section back into the stone age as far as the destruction of power equipment.

At 48 hours, the GFS is a hair faster and further south on its latest run. It looks to be holding serve compared to the 6Z run.

On the latest GFS run Dorian rakes the North Carolina coastline albeit as a slightly weaker storm.  The past twenty four hour model runs have me concerned for the Carolinas receving the brunt of this storm as it moves up the Southeast coast.  It's still early in the game but the Carolinas definitely need to keep an eye on Dorian.

Quote

 

1 hour ago, PackGrad05 said:

I can't wait to see the official snowfall map for this system and see the cutoff for zilch a mile from my house.

My stepson and his family live near you.  He just sent a video expressing his dissapointment at missing out on this storm.  He's got a eighteen month old girl who he was dying to get out and play in the snow with.  It's funny how just a few miles can make a world of difference between rain and snow but that's winter weather in the TarHeel state.  Odds are you will get in on the action later on in the Winter season.

2 minutes ago, thunderwolf said:

It's such a different landscape over a short distance on 401. Wake tech has pretty good snow and people sliding off that hill. Just a little slush near that sheetz and Bojangles and just wet by the food lion.

Sent from my XT1635-01 using Tapatalk
 

You're in my neck of the woods!  I live about two miles north of McCullers Crossroads near Buffaloe Lanes and speaking of hills, I used to go out when it snowed just to watch the accidents and to help push people out who lost it on that hill near the bowling alley.  I'll bet there is some live action going on around there!

I'm located in between Raleigh and Fuquay Varina and the snow has been coming down!  We have been in one of the heavier bands for the past twenty minutes and I would not be surprised if we haven't added another inch or two to the three we got with the first round of this storm in the past hour.  The temperature is 32 degrees and the roads around here are passable if you take it easy on the brakes and accelerator.  This is the most memorable December snow event since the December 25-26 2010 storm for this area.

Well the bad news is I missed out on most of the heavy snow and fun in my location.  I probably got around three inches before it all turned to sleet around 5:00 AM.  It is raining and the wind is picking up now.  The temperature is around 33 degrees.

The good news is it looks like I'm going to miss out on the heavy ice accrual.  The Duke Energy map has quite a few power outages on a line from Raleigh north.  South of that line things are pretty much status quo.  I feel for those who have lost power, especially in the Charlotte area and those to the north of me.

11 minutes ago, wake4est said:

3k nam for Wake has 4-5” on the kuchera and 0.4” of freezing rain

That's a relief!  The last NAM run had me thinking about 2002 when it showed over 1.00" of freezing rain.  I hope things continue to trend colder for Wake and surounding areas.

The eyewall has just reached land according to radar at Topsail Island.

29 minutes ago, Regan said:

Well. Fishel came on wringing his hands a little. Said the Triangle has greater chances of up to 50mph or so now. More to the south. Said it isn’t as bad a Fran was but this is a long period of time and it could be significant in places. 

Well great. 

I think that is possible contingent on where you live in the Triangle.  I live just north of Fuquay Varina and

I wouldn't be surprised to see a 50 MPH wind gust in my area.  Areas north and west of Raleigh probably

will not see any winds much above 40 MPH.  WTVD's Chris Holman did not show any wind gusts above 45

MPH in his wind estimates for the area.  Mother Nature will get the final say as far as how high our winds 

will get.

The GFS has held serve through 66hrs.  It doesn't come as far inland thus it is a little stronger later into the run.

58 minutes ago, downeastnc said:

The FV3 version of the GFS is doing much better I think at least as far as being closer to the other models......the GFS is latched on to that stall off Hattersa then loop back in scenario....it will come around tomorrow......

That FV3 version of the GFS does have what appears to be a more realistic track than the GFS model.  The barometric

pressures are like night and day compared to the GFS.  I think that might be on the right trail when all is said and done.

We'll have to see if the eastward movement on the last Euro run continues.  If it does, we might have something here.

Well, the GFS is consistent even though many here think it is in left field with its track,  At 84hrs, it is near Cape

Hatteras and 1mb higher with its barometric pressure.  It is a smidgen south and west of its previous run.  It would

be a blessing for interior NC but catastrophic for the Outer Banks and NC coast if it even comes close to verifying.

Quote

 

Good Morning, I see the models have pretty much held their own overnight with the GFS, CMC and some

of the others taking the hurricane near the Pamilco Sound and stalling it and the Euro tracking it across

the state from landfall near the NC/SC border towards Charlotte and falling apart over Western NC.  Both

tracks are disasters for North Carolina and have me very worried,  I noticed some 40+ rainfall amounts

for the Charlotte area if this verifies.  All we can say and do is prepare for the worst and hope for the best!

5 minutes ago, DopplerWx said:

this is what concerned me, models shifting south as we close in.  luckily the gfs still shows an offshore stall but the euro ensembles all being at the nc/sc border and some further south is worrisome.

I believe the CMC is in the GFS camp but I don't know if that is a vote of confidence.  Things will change between now and

landfall but the window will be closing faster as we go along.

The Euro shifts west once it gets inland.  That was interesting and would devastate the Charlotte area if that

is the case.  The stall that some of the other models are showing would bring epic flooding to Eastern NC.

It's early but things do not look good for the old North State!

29 minutes ago, yotaman said:

Welcome. I don't buy the GFS. Not because it stalls it out but because it stalls it out and actually strengthens it to a cat 5 while sitting there. No way can those waters maintain that strong of a storm with all the upwelling and land interaction that would happen with a big and strong storm.

Thank you for the welcome!  You bring up a great point about the intensity forecast being way off on the GFS.  Hanging

around off the shallower waters of the Outer Banks would weaken rather than strengthen Florence.  The UKMet did

paint a bleak picture when it comes to track in its latest run.  The Euro is about to do its thing so we'll see if it picks

up on the trend that the GFS and CMC have been showing lately.  

Hello, I'm a long time lurker and infrequent poster here and I've been following the discussion here

on Florence.  I will be very interested to see if the newest Euro model run follows what seems to be

the trend on some of the other models, in particular, the GFS which has stalled Florence near the

Outer Banks for its last two runs.  The last Euro run showed a Fran type track which would spell

disaster for the Raleigh area where I live.  I am still hoping is that Florence will turn more north and

further out to sea but unless it strengthens more rapidily than forecast or the high pressure ridge

is weaker, it looks like North Carolina is in for a hard time later this week.  I know today's forecast

models aren't gospel, especially four to five days out, but it looks like NC will not be able to dodge

Hurricane Florence and its effects.