NYCGreg

I’m in Hoboken.  Lost a few minutes to sleet, but otherwise heavy snow continues.  Just had lightning here too, which was pretty cool.  Anyone else catch that?

6 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said:

Oh no? Comes in as 37° rain for NYC, ends as freezing drizzle. 

I think we got it.  From now on you can say It Gon Rain and move on.  I have no idea why you need to post how NYC will see a driving rainstorm every five minutes.

25 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said:

Good luck. Torch city.. HV ice storm. City has no problem. 

Welcome back.  It Gon Rain.  Rinse repeat.

We're really not that far off from something nice for the NYC area.  Being 72+ hours out, we can still get things to shift a bit in our favor.  Have to wait and see what the next day or two bring.

Just now, Ericjcrash said:

I don't as of now. 850s are +5 at the height of the precip even on the UK. Can change but we're really not that far out now.

We're three or four days out.  The models are a joke that far out.  I'm not saying things are going to change; frankly, I don't really care.  But I don't think it serves a purpose to repeat It Gon Rain every five minutes.

1 minute ago, Ericjcrash said:

Euro should shine some light. UK is encouraging but with that dream scenario we still don't have a great solution. Mid levels torch for bulk of precip. CMC being less amped was encouraging but as it stands we still torch. Need the UK with a(much) earlier transfer to really cash in.

I think we're pretty clear on where you stand on this; you don't think it's going to snow a lot.

Just now, NYCweatherNOW said:

What are you talking about? There’s plenty of potential in the long range

At some point, potential has to become reality, or it's a waste of time.  Sometimes cutters are precursors to our biggest storms, so hopefully this is one of those instances, even if this is not a classic cutter.

As for this storm, well, I'm glad we get instantaneous bad news when it comes in.  Good news tends to lag.

The convection to the NW side of the center is crazy now.  Really blowing up.  For a Category 1 storm, this thing is packing quite a punch.  I think it's what they said - it's distributing its energy in different ways rather than increasing winds.  It's telling that the pressure hasn't dropped at all in a while.

There is still a lot of convection blowing up around the center.  Clearly the storm stalled in a favorable enough spot to keep it going.

7 minutes ago, the ghost of leroy said:

people insisted otherwise because the hurricane hunters weren't finding much of an increase in strength.  the pressure has fallen a bit and winds have gone up a few knots, but let's not act like this is undergoing rapid intensification.

No one is suggesting it is undergoing RI.  But considering it is creeping back towards Category 3 status (it is 6 MPH from that category) is crazy, especially given that it is approaching land and was in terrible shape not too long ago.

I don't know why people insisted otherwise, but anyone looking at the IR loop of this thing could tell it was strengthening.  Now it looks like strong convection is wrapped around the center, and it even appears as if an eye is forming.  Now, I have no idea what will come of this, but the storm certainly looks better organized than at almost any time today.

On a more important note, I hope everyone in the Carolinas is ok and that this storm passes without causing too much damage.  Everyone talks about how "beautiful" these storms look, but the destruction in their paths is devastating to families and wildlife.  Just keep that in mind, because the people in Florence's path don't think anything about this storm is beautiful.

Yea, the eye is gone now.  It's not DOA, but I don't believe it will be close to a major hurricane by the time it even reaches land.

I'm no expert, but the one hour improvement on satellite was pretty impressive, given that the SW side tightened up a bit and the eye is circular and clear now.  Again, just going off of what I read, it is not that odd for a hurricane to struggle a bit coming off an ERC, and people here have noted that pressure falls may precede an increase in wind.  Guess we'll have to see what happens here., but I don't see how people can discount continued weakening or rapid intensification.  We've seen that it does not take a long time for these systems to gain an incredible amount of strength, and that could very well happen here.

Well, the NYC thread is dead, so I'm following with you guys.  Not looking too good for us at this point, though I suppose there is still some hope left if the storm is slower and can get captured earlier. Where is the guy who kept touting that there would be a full phase?  Even if he is wrong I'd like to read more of that stuff.  Hope is a good thing, even if Red in Shawshank Redemption disagrees.

I should say Hoboken (just west of NYC).  Obviously parts of LI will do fine.

Big difference is this one is occurring with marginal temps in March; that one was with great temps in January.  Besides, I can deal with this one much better because I was never forecasted to receive two to three feet.