dsaur

4 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 The 2/13-20 0Z 2/12 GEFS predicted AO rose quite a bit again to -1.2 (see image below) vs -2.2 on 2/10, -2.7 on 2/9, -3.2 on 2/8, -3.0 on 2/7, and -3.5 on 2/6. Also, the NAO is significantly higher than yesterday with it hitting +0.7  In addition, the soon to peak PNA will be dropping to negative in ~a week. So, terrible trends again for cold lovers on the GEFS for late month:

 AO from just 4 days ago (2/8 run) : -3.2 for 2/13-20 and headed for a major bust

AO today (2/12 run): -1.2 for 2/13-20

Sounds like some bank of Crays needs more buoy data. Look out side when the time comes is still be best predictor, lol.  Climo says it's a good time, so let's wait and see.  Of course climo is in the process of adjusting too...so look outside to be sure

8 hours ago, GaWx said:

Wintry precip way down in my area on 2/18 on 12Z GFS! These sharp changes from run to run show the level of uncertainty.

 Not all of this is snow as some is other wintry:

 

Kind of reminds me  of the 73 bowling ball.  I've been reading about the year without a summer, and they were complaining about the warm winters, and how it used to get cold, etc. and it was warm right until about a year after Tambora blew...then suddenly heavy snows in May and off they went, lol.  Of course we don't have a historic volcano going off, but other things can make anomalous weather.  Of course they had a huge sun spot that looked like a spider on the sun, and people were watching it without fear because of all the dust...so watch out for spiders on the sun.

On 3/18/2023 at 6:24 PM, GaWx said:

 After the prior impressive one, the second Canadian airmass is even more impressive in Atlanta. Tomorrow's high is progged to be 45 (with full sunshine!), which would be the coldest since the 45 of way back on January 14! There are 3 freezes on the way, with high 20s forecasted to be the coldest at Hartsfield the next two nights. Anything 28 or lower would be their coldest since 12/26! Let's go!

 You don't often get -15C at 850 in TN in mid March, but this may occur tomorrow at 12Z.

Edit for 3AM at KATL: it is down to 41. But with only 5 more hours of cooling time, I don't know that there will be enough time to get down to the forecasted 28. Actually, 24 hours ago it was already down to 40. But the dewpoint then was still up at 32 vs the current way down to 19. We'll see if KATL makes it as a secondary cold front came through recently and cooling may accelerate with clearing skies. Nashville is now down to 27. Huntsville is 32, Chattanooga is 33, and Rome is 37 (all with clear skies).

 Regardless, Sun night will probably be colder if it doesn't get to the upper 20s later tonight.

 Edit: @dsaurI would have loved for you to get a pellet or three but it was way too dry for anything to get to the ground.

Thanks, Abacus Man, I've had my trace to a quarter, and heard some sleet patter early in the season, and that's more than I usually get, lol, so I'll deal.  Especially with such a pleasant day like today was.  Sunny and crisp...reminded me of winter beginning, not ending.

16 hours ago, dsaur said:

With a low of 27 to a high of 80 forecast this week it's a typical messed up winter for the 00's so far. 8.4 to open the season, and 27 near the close, with spring in between.  It just ain't right.  I've lived a long time, and seen a lot of winters, and this one just ain't right, lol. Last time I got in a real good frozen street sledding was in 05, and it's been so long, I'm not sure I could get up from the sled, if I managed to get down there now.  Thanks a lot, climo, you and your geologic time.

Now the NWS and the system to the sw are mocking me.  A forecast low of 28 tonight, fully in clouds now, and 50 at 6pm, with a lot of precip in MIss, some in Ala, and a bunch sw of Miss. all headed toward me. So if one speeds up and the other slows down, I could could get some glory.  Guess which one is probably going to speed up, or dissipate, and which is likely to slow down?? And even if Santa should suddenly appear, the outcome would probably be the same, but I'm drunk on hopium so I'll keep an eye on it all, lol.

With a low of 27 to a high of 80 forecast this week it's a typical messed up winter for the 00's so far. 8.4 to open the season, and 27 near the close, with spring in between.  It just ain't right.  I've lived a long time, and seen a lot of winters, and this one just ain't right, lol. Last time I got in a real good frozen street sledding was in 05, and it's been so long, I'm not sure I could get up from the sled, if I managed to get down there now.  Thanks a lot, climo, you and your geologic time.

On 3/10/2023 at 12:25 AM, GaWx said:

Thanks for that info. I didn't mean in quite a few Marches. I meant it has been quite awhile since we had that (several freezes close together) this winter. The last time Atlanta and Athens had two consecutive freezes was way back in late January, for example.

I need to be sure of something, Mr. Abacus....for every day I get over 80 in Jan, Feb and March I get a huge big ginormos ip/sn storm, is that like climo guaranteed? You got the cold right, so I need to suss out the rest.  Is it like one big huge storm for all the over 80's, or is it many separate storms through out spring?? Whatever, I think I've done enough weathering of nasty winter heat to deserve a sleetapoxyclips. Oh, and I do appreciate the coming freezes....and the moles are still wearing Larry masks, so that fantasy storm is sure to verify.

1 hour ago, GaWx said:

 Thanks for posting. What's amazing is that in addition to plentiful upslope snow for the mountains, the 18Z GFS has not one, not two, but three different systems (in a row) bringing significant wintry precip to parts of the SE (mainly NC to NE GA) during just the period March 13-18! I know it is just the operational GFS way out in the 11-15 but the prospects for the upcoming pattern are so way out there that this kind of thing is actually believable.

Reel it on in from Abacus Central, Larry...and get me a huge,big, once in 200 year ip event while you are prognosticating, please.  The moles are all wearing Larry masks, and it's kind of freaky, but further predictive, I hope.

1 hour ago, Shack said:

69deg when I awoke this morning.  Birds seemed abnormally vocal. 

Macon averaged 8.2deg above normal for the month of February and had 8 days at 80deg or higher,  hitting 85deg on the 28th.

Pollen kicked off here about two weeks ago. 

 

I'm pretty sure I spotted some wisteria way up a tall pine yesterday while I was out.  I was stunned as it's way early, I think, so I need to double check when I'm out again, but I don't know what else looks lavender, and is way up a tree. I suppose  it could be a troup of pastel mandrels, but that would be equally as unusual, lol. Song birds have been obnoxiously loud the last few weeks, mocking my love of cold.

On 2/22/2023 at 7:03 PM, GaWx said:

That's not a problem for RDU. They had 83 F on 2/3/1989 followed by 11.1" from two storms later that month along with light accumulations in both March and April.

Well, I got an 82.7 so I'm counting on tons of ip and sn right around the corner, lol.  And sans that, a nice cool to cold March and April will do just fine.  I want to see those boys wearing coats and ear muff at the Masters, with periods of frozen precip. Don't think the Master's has even been snowed out, and that's the kind of heating up cycle anomaly I do so enjoy

On 2/17/2023 at 9:16 PM, GaWx said:

 The GEFS (used in CPC daily updated charts for indices) based NAO forecasts have gone markedly in the -NAO direction over the last 4 day period:
 

- The 2/13 forecast had only 2 members (~6%) with a sub -0.25 NAO (what I consider -NAO) on 2/27. The mean for 2/27 on the 2/13 run was up at +0.5 vs 0 on the 2/16 run and -0.3 on the 2/17 run.

- The # of members with a -NAO on 2/27 rose sharply on the 2/14 run from 2 to 8 members (~25%).

- The 2/15 and 2/16 forecasts each had ~10 members (~33%) with a -NAO on 2/27.

- The 2/17 forecast has ~15 members (~50%) with a -NAO on 2/27.

- So, the progression from the 2/13 run to the 2/17 run has been 2 to 8 to 10 to 10 to 15 members with a -NAO on 2/27.

- The 2/16 forecast had ~10 members (~33%) with a -NAO on 3/1 vs ~23 (~75%) on the new one

- The 2/16 forecast had only 3 members (~10%) with a sub -1 NAO (what I consider a strong -NAO) on 3/1. The 2/17 forecast has 10 (~33%).

- The 2/16 forecast had 12 members (~40%) with a +0.25+ NAO (what I consider +NAO) on 3/1 vs only 3 (~10%) on the 2/17.

 With this trend toward -NAO for 2/27-3/1+ remaining strong even on today's run as per the above, I wonder if the trend will continue to an even stronger -NAO over the next few days of runs as the models get an even better grasp of the downwelling of the major SSW that won't peak til tomorrow (as per the 10 mb 60N winds). Keep in mind that the main period in question (2/26+) is still 9+ days out, which for this uncommon situation (a major SSW with a dip to ~-15 m/s 10 mb winds at 60N) is probably not the easiest for the models to handle well.

 Also, are the models correct in keeping a +AO with this increasingly strong progged -NAO? Or is the modeled AO going to start dropping if the progged -NAO keeps strengthening? I especially wonder about this since a strong -AO is often the hallmark of a successfully downwelled SSW.

  What do others think? It remains to be seen whether or not the SE will cool down significantly by early March. Unlike the NE even if the AO ends up also falling, the SE is likely going to also need the PNA to rise (better Pacific than currently). So far, modeling is hardly budging there.

I don't recall bookend winters having huge sleet storms at the end, but I have seen some cold/cool Aprils and they are wonderful.  Kind of like sticking a thumb in the eye of summer and saying back off.  Sure it's only slows the inevitable heat, but it's so so satisfying to defy summer with a cold/cool spring.  Of course, my point forecast has an 81 in it, lol. My trees are budding, I have a cherry in full bloom, and a wasp was dive bombing the dining room light the other night, so there's that. Either way I'm pulling for you to pull another Sav snow out of your hat.

3 hours ago, GaWx said:

 Courtesy of Dr. Simon Lee's Twitter, the 0Z EPS mean is also now forecasting a major SSW and a rather stout one at that with a 60N 10 mb wind low of -10 m/s on 2/19 (see image below). That would be a whopping 33 m/s below the climo mean of +23 for the date. It is currently +30. The run from four days earlier had it dipping down only to +3 (on the same date). So, now all of the major ensemble means have a major. Most importantly, note that over 90% of the 50+ EPS members show a major. Also, note that the bottom 10% of members are in the -25 to -30 range, which is where the 0Z GFS is and would be near a record low for Feb.

------------------------

 0Z 2/6/23 EPS mean prog (thick blue line) of 60N winds at 10 mb showing a major SSW (below the pink line from 2/16 through 2/22) with it dipping all of the way down to -10 m/s on 2/19:

 As the globe heats up I think we'll see more crazy stuff, like wall to wall heat with a blizzard in the middle of it.  More extremes....multiple 10 inch spring snows, ice storms in Nov, lol. In my old age I'm holding out for the amazingly anomalous as I doubt I'll see winters like the 50's, 60's and 70's again though I can imagine a winter like the early 40's or late 1800's had thrown in just for climo giggles

 Here's a tweet from Dr. Lee from earlier today:

  A

 

21 hours ago, GaWx said:

 Although earlier in the month (like the timing of the current minor SSW) would have been optimal, this later one definitely wouldn't be too late to potentially have significant downstream effects in the SE outside of the mountains. Yes, likely ~2/25 or later for first effects should they occur. The key would be getting the effects in the first place and then getting them to start quickly enough. If they can start 2/25ish, that would give many in the SE still another week or so of prime climo to work with. After all, March 2nd has had more SN/IP at RDU than any other day if I'm not mistaken. If the start of any effects is delayed til, say, March 10th, then it likely wouldn't do much good though even then there could be some benefit.

Edit: The 0Z GFS joins the prior two 18Z GFS runs in having what appears to be a major SSW at midmonth.

The only blizzard I ever saw was March 13th.  I don't quit on blizzards 'til mid March, and snow until April 1st, and cold until after the Masters is over

1 hour ago, Shack said:

Tony ! Where you been? 

I'm with ya' on the 100 year sleet storm.  Disappointed in our immediate outlook, though, for anything of the such as the cold looks allergic to our latitude.  Maybe the SSW will deliver us a Valentines Day sledding event.

Off topic, but how'd you fare in last weeks breezy conditions around Griffin?  I came through on Saturday and whoa, what a mess !

 

Hey, Shack!  I've been lurking mostly, forgot my id and password, so it took a while for my old man brain to limber up enough to get them right so I could post.  I wanted to follow Larry.  The  storm missed me by a mile to the south.  Just lost some pines. But Hobby Lobby is a mile and a half or so as the crow flies, and it was much closer sw of that.  Too close for comfort.  The killer Sunny Side Easter storm was a mile and a half, or so north, and this one south, actually there were two side by side as they passed  me.  So many huge old oaks down everywhere, but oddly not so many into houses.  You see them cut up and piled on the curb, but the house seems in tact.  Of course, not in every instance.  I feel for those poor people that got blasted. I reacted the same way to the Easter storm as I did this storm.  My weather radio gave me positions as it came and I calculate the Easter storm would miss north, and these two the other day miss south, but when they were on me, all I could do was stand in the glass porch and look out watching for them, and tracking the position of the thunder.  It got dark as night, then the rain in torrents making a funnel impossible to see if it was there, and the siren a quarter mile south, either got taken out by the wind, failed to go off, or the wind and rain and thunder was so loud I couldn't hear it.  No one I've talked to heard it.  They put it up after the Easter storm killed people when it went thru. The oddest thing happened a minute or two before the super cell got here.  It got really quiet, and the wind died.   It was like all the air was sucked out of the space.  I remember thinking it was like the sea pulling away from shore before the tidal wave came in.  No way I was going outside, lol, ...and then the daylight just went away. Next time I'll head to the basement, it could have be Godzilla, and I wouldn't have been able to see him, stomping thru my yard.  No need to look for it, when it gets like that.

3 hours ago, GaWx said:

 Well Tony, don't shoot the abacus lol. In the first week of Feb for whatever reason, I could find no major snow or sleet officially at Atlanta! I found nonmajor ones, of course, and several bad icestorms. And I'm sure you know there have been a good # of major snows/sleets both the week before and the week after. (Peak at Atlanta is near mid-Feb.) One of these days that will change for the first week of Feb. Maybe that's what you're alluding to for this year as that would be highly anomalous!

Thanks, Larry.  I thought I remembered late Jan, then mid Feb as being more propitious times.  I guess it's Goofy being goofy trying to put a major on at the wrong time.  One of these days, though, it will be in the 20's in Cuba, and I'll get my foot of sleet....just hope I'm not experiencing it from under the ground.

7 hours ago, GaWx said:

I'd say we're already in the midst of a pattern shift from torch dominating most of the month to averaging near normal (some BN and some AN) for the rest of this month and possibly further in the SE and in much of the E US. Ironically, the 12Z EPS is significantly colder overall vs prior runs in the SE (coldest run in quite awhile) in the 11-15 day. The last couple have been colder than prior runs. Also, the 12Z GEFS is as cold as any of the last few days. Neither ensemble now has it mild in early Feb. with near to a little BN on the 12Z EPS/GEFS in most of the SE. The colder model trend could be a psyche/wrong, of course, especially with them being too cold overall this winter to date, but regardless, I didn't see a model cooling trend coming. 

 12Z EPS mean of 51 members is a whopping 10 F or so colder in not only the SE US but also almost the entire E 1/3 of the US vs just three runs ago in much of the 11-15! Example: the ensemble mean at Charlotte for 12Z on 2/4 was an AN 40 just three runs ago and is now a BN 30!

There has been a signal for the first week of Feb for a while.  What does climo say for that period, Mr. Abacus? Going from 8.4 in Dec to 70's in Jan, has me expecting something equally as anomalous soon....like 100 year sleet storm, lol.

So far, only 15% of the board are killsjoys when it comes to freezing rain.  The rest of us at least like a bit of it.  And over 60% of us are okay with the Armageddon scenario of no power for a week.  That's the adventurous spirit I was hoping to find here amongst my SE brethren. 

 

BTW, we need a freezing rain emoticon of some sort.

But I may be the only one to post who lived thru Atl in 73.  Ask 100 people who live through that, and let's see what the vote is, lol.  Pray you never see a truly bad one.  An inch or an inch and a half is just nuisance ice, but it would scare the pants off most people. 73 was twice that in some places.  Seeing Peachtree street in Buckhead completely covered in downed trees, broken phone poles, with transformers exploding, and the wires popping every were, as far as the eye could see, I mean everywhere, was interesting, and pretty, but I hope I never see the like again, lol.  Once was more than enough. Unless you thrive on carnage and destruction.  Losing power is like boy, and girl scouts camping, and no biggie. You might have to wear a coat, and eat dry dog food, lol.  That's the least of it, and if you live in the middle of a field, you're good too....but, if you have trees....... different deal. Atlanta has trees.   T

Well, it's only fitting after last weeks sleet train!  Good lucky going forward, you've had it so far.  T

We kinda seemed to be in the middle of the heavy rain, heaviest to the southeast and northwest parts of the state. I measure near 3 inches at my house. Trip to Destin got ruined though, couldn't go in the water last week.

Yeah, I'm surprised at how selective the heavy amounts were.  That train ran on some narrow gage tracks.  The pattern as a whole gave me some good rains, but in small batches over more than a week, where some got the same amount in one or two days, easy.  Sorry about the ocean trip, but I can't knock the cooler summer temps.  I've only hit 90 once all summer on my remotes, 90.3 toward the end of June.   Tony

Hey, SnowMan, how'd you do on rain over there?  Did the train come to your house? 

Way to go Kitten!!  T

Rotfl, the more I think about that the more I think there is a fortune in there   We'd have to pay Hanna Barbera royalties I'm sure, but still the Scoopy Doo turd collector would surely sell in the bazillions!!!   YOu see to manufacture and distribution, and I'll issue encouragement, and attaboys.   T

 It's Scooby Doo not scoopy doo.  Unless your walking him in NYC of course.

A typo with meaning, lol.  T

  A kin to that existential cry..."Scoopy Doo, where are you"......

I didn't know that because I didn't want to know that. Sent from my Alex Bell crank phone using whatever the hell I want to use.

"To learn is to know.  To know is to grow!  To grow is to live!!"   From the Mole Mantra of Gibbe rish.  T

There are no moles in space.

Sent from my Alex Bell crank phone using whatever the hell I want to use.

 Actually,  Principal Burns, they are even now doing extensive research on the Space Stay into whether Moles can help star ships navigate through Worm Holes!!  If we have a future in deep space it may be due to SpaceMoles!!  Bet ya didn't know that....  T

Thank you Dave

 

 Nope....Aries     The zoo didn't have a ram  

Sorry, forgot.   Yep, us Aries like our lions!  Tony