ROOSTA

Just arrived back home after a stop in GA. Probably a perfect trip. The Eclipse was out-of-this-world. It took about a minute and realized...start taking pictures, IDIOT! Ended up with only 5 or 6 and only (1) good close-up. Etched in a memory for a lifetime.

Not a cloud in the sky throughout the event, not even a wisp of cirrus.Snapped a few pics. Truly spectacular. To pick a location on Friday night and play out as it did, I'm shocked. Might have been the best place to observe the event outside of New England 

A Total Solar Eclipse is A MUST SEE! Not 99%, need to get into center of 100% totality.
Experienced the one in '17 so for seven years I've been waiting for this one.
Leaving tonight and driving to AR., MO., IL., IN. Should be enough time to chase clear skies in a 200-mile area starting at sunrise.
It doesn't look good presently. I put 0% confidence in a Cld Cvr prediction. Looking at 700MB humidity combined with surface Td... OUCH.  

Any snow is good snow. I'm pleased to see many cashing in, many more disappointed, bummer. 
Oh, what could (should) have been.  
How many times must I learn to start conservative, setting the amount and effects to high and then only to pull back? 
In the Winter of little still nice to track.

For a majority of posters in the Forum this is a hobby!

THANK THE GOOD LORD!!!
NEXT..... 

The obligatory map. 
I'm all mapped out. There are to many maps, they all show the same thing! 
Should be a separate thread just for maps.
Still going with an overachiever.
 

Devils in the details. Goalposts have shifted. I get it, happens every single snow event. Oh, my goodness which model is "less wrong" and choose your poison.
Think about the trends and bias of each.
Stick to your guns, there should be no emotional invest, no control just go with the trend and blend.
Yea, TREND AND BLEND 
A killer CCB FTW    

Looking good.

5 minutes ago, ChangeofSeasonsWX said:

Does anyone have a link to that site where you can see the top analogs for a particular storm?

Just look up CIPS.

First things first.

FOOTBALL

It's annoying and often forgotten how bad the IMBY posts seem to overwelm the "good" posts.

To those watch the game, come back and maybe by 00z things will have changed. 

These many models depicting a good snow dump 8-12 inches can't be all wrong. A strong signal.
The usual BL issues can't be known until nowcasting.  A deepening system with an almost perfect track.
Go with the gut feeling, mine is telling of an overachiever. 
---------------
Oh, I'm sitting at 82F with a dew of 68F.

So you say there's a chance? 
This looks pretty accurate!  ******50%******* 

1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said:

HRRR? 

Yes.  My bad not ID'ing

MESO's coming in juiced. SW PA 12-18" end of the 12z run.
I know...out-of-range.
Just something to watch...

Just sitting back relaxing. Doesn't get any better, tracking a storm, Super-duper Superbowl Sunday!
Soundings with QPF., blend 'em. you'll get a reasonable amount to forecast for a given location.  Max SF amounts creeping up.
Sometimes these events are over analyzed. In the forum it should be.
A good handle on what is going to transpire. 

IT GONNA SNOW...BOMBS AWAY.  

Time to throw a foot here and there, and you get foot and you get a foot. A couple of inches either side of a foot doesn't make much of a difference. "That's what she said."

Go 8-10" South coast and E. Including the Cape. Getting into a CCB aka Comahead could produce higher jacks.

6 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I wouldn't call it "11th hour" in a warm ENSO.....especially over the past 20 years....just hitting 6ish-

Yeah, that's present time. It's the henceforth I'm referring to. Really nothing modeled in the near term. 
By the time the atmosphere realigns in a week or three that then will be almost to late to enjoy.
A disappointing season when all is said and done.   

Feeling it for you's guys and gals.
Time to except what it is.
Seems the season of which we all look forward to has been coming later, ending earlier. What up with dat?
Time is running out. IMO maybe the only way to save this year would be to pull an 11th hour Blizzard.   

IT GONNA SNOW!

Expecting Power outage this evening. My grid is so fragile a butterfly could just think of farting and out she goes.
SPC is a little busy today.

The southern tail on this is packing a punch.
Severe Warnings are being issued all around down here.
Gusts in the 40mph. range with temps in the 80's.

I was hacked bigtime. My tracking curtailed to the dark ages. Two computers down after installing WhatsApp. Beware of Walware, went right to my OS boot.
Good luck all you weenies! Looking good after 2 yr. hiatus.   

Appears knowledge of micro-climate of SNE, climatology re:, structure of how the storm evolves, temp profile, intensity but most importantly the track will determine how much and what type of precipitation will fall. Thinking CF will be a given. To early to determine jacks.

Guess I just encapsulated the purpose of the forum. Everyone should keep expectations in check. No control over the event so emotional expression should be kept at a minimum. IMBY- nobody gives a rats arse. 
 

Foreplay arousal, WOOD inbound.
She's more beautiful than initially thought. 

6 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

What are your thoughts Roosta? Plowable incoming? 

From the trends I 'm thinking fringe effect in SNE. It's a Jersey, Mid-Atlantic event. Still time to change thoughts with the evolving model runs.