wxdawg10

2 hours ago, NorthHillsWx said:

If anyone’s in need for some entertainment today, head to the New England forum. They have had warnings posted for up to 12-18” since yesterday and the latest EURO completely blanks a lot of those areas. Total meltdown mode up there 

Full blown meltdown on twitter right now from NE mets and followers.  i feel bad for them but a little glimpse of the heartbreak we go through every winter..

put a fork in it, winter is over. Start planning those walks to the park

21 minutes ago, NJsnow89 said:

Hopefully we get some NW trends that will put NC in the game

NC has gotten burned so often by this dreaded trend..forced to watch in misery as friends up north get pasted.  The meltdown threads of lost storms the past 5-10 years on this forum are nothing short legendary. and actually quite sad.

There are three constants when it comes to winter weather in the southeast that you must always remember.

1. The warm nose will always overperform

2. The Northern trend is inevitable

3. The Appalachian mountains will shred anything to their west

Anytime you're tracking a storm, apply these principles in relation to said storm.  and always lean towards more conservative solutions.

But to give everyone some hope, the Euro and other models do have a suppression bias.  The trend north is just an overcorrection for that bias overtime.  So NC folks should be in a good position when taking that into account.

i just hope for the sake of our brothers up north this thing doesn't take a 200 mile last minute jog east and misses almost everyone..that'll be enough pain to last a lifetime

Euro buries boston with a modest 40 inches of snow 

7 minutes ago, burrel2 said:

Congrats for the Spartanburg to Charlotte to Greensboro area. You guys are getting 2-4 inches from the meso-low. 

why are you saying that like it's a certainty..no one knows exactly where these bands set up.  you'll get people excited only to be disappointed.  Allan Huffman touches on this in his first call map.

Dare i get excited..im holding back but there are hints..we keep going back to it..so close. Lot energy and variables with this storm models don't know how to act or where to look.  the signs are there..

Don't forget the GFS was the first to sniff a potential major storm for the mid-atlantic.  it's starting to sniff it out again and bringing it back. These trends are telling me EURO is about to cave again. But man theres gonna be a lot of chaotic energy floating around out there and someone is bound to cash in on the east coast

who's ready for the February torch? ☺

1 minute ago, Brick Tamland said:

Who made Fishel mad?

OK I’M GONNA CALL SOME PEOPLE OUT HERE. 

SOME OF THESE FOLKS ARE METEOROLOGISTS AND KNOW BETTER, WHILE OTHERS ARE RANK AMATEURS WHO THINK THEY KNOW WAY MORE THAN THEY DO. I DON’T CARE WHICH GROUP YOU’RE IN, IF YOU’RE POSTING DETERMINISTIC MODEL FORECASTS A WEEK OUT SHOWING SOME WEATHER CALAMITY, YOU’RE NOT IN THIS TO SERVE OTHERS, BUT RATHER TO SERVE YOURSELF. YOU’RE HOPING AGAINST HOPE THAT A MIRACLE WILL OCCUR AND YOU’LL BE ABLE TO BEAT YOUR CHEST AND SAY YOU WERE THE FIRST, AND THAT PEOPLE WILL FORGET ABOUT ALL THE OTHER  TIMES YOU WERE WRONG. AND DO ANY OF YOU UNDERSTAND THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN DETERMINISTIC AND PROBABALISTIC FORECASTS, AND THAT THE LATTER IS THE ONLY RESPONSIBLE WAY TO GO? LOOK, I KNOW OF WHAT I SPEAK. I WENT THROUGH THAT ATTENTION SEEKING, INSECURE PHASE DURING MY 20S, AND THEN I GREW UP. I HIGHLY SUGGEST THAT WE ALL REMEMBER WHY WE DO THIS, PUBLIC SERVICE AND NOT SELF SERVICE.

is it just me or has he been a little..unhinged..recently? he's losing it

that GFS run..oh boy. not just NC but the entire east coast is destroyed lol. 

9 minutes ago, PackGrad05 said:

I'd be shocked to see more than 3" anywhere in Wake.  Trust me, I'm pulling for it, but based on climatology and situations like this in the past, I agree with RAH's statement about the dry air this far back and the extent of the western precip shield.

I'm going 1-3" across Wake, with most areas 1-2".  Still a great snow!

what about climatology? there is no warm nose to contend with for this storm. What falls will stick.  wake is in spot where heavier rates are possible. get under a band and you can do 3 inches in 3 hours. If anything, i can see this busting higher.  So its definitely possible.  

1 minute ago, CaryWx said:

Yeah after the overnight models thought Wake country would be upgraded to a WSW but looks like RAH left their advisories as is.

they talked about the westward push in their am briefings and that it's likely they'll be updating amounts.  they already increased RDU from 1-2 to 2-3 inches.  i expect warnings later today.

Lol GFS is a win for pretty much the entire state of NC holy..expect snow totals to start going up

Just now, NJsnow89 said:

Hearing 18z RGEM is a beauty

https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1484271620600610822?t=fCxNlxZcUJDGLmrCMHxgEA&s=19

15 minutes ago, 27596WXNUT said:

Here is Fishel’s post on FB. 
 

SORRY I'M LATE. HERE WE GO!

I want to discuss two concepts with you, so I hope you'll take the time to read this in its entirety. I'm going to discuss 2 things in a fair amount of detail.

First, the atmosphere is an incredibly complex system. It can be simulated extremely well by a myriad of mathematical equations that mimic the laws of physics and thermodynamics. However, these equations do not provide exact solutions, and add to that the fact that models are very dependent on initial conditions. And no analysis of current conditions is perfect, because we don't have enough observations to make it perfect. So there is inherent error in model forecasts right from the start, and those errors only grow with time. 

A trained monkey can read a map! What I as a meteorologist try to do is look at the processes involved in a given weather event, and try to decide if the model output is consistent with those processes. I mentioned yesterday that the disturbance in the southern branch of the jet stream was weakening, and that the disturbance in the northern branch could very well be too far north to do us any good with regard to snow. My views on that haven't changed, even though the models are oscillating wildly as to how much, if any snow we will get. 

Now, concept #2 is instability. You usually only hear me talk about that when it comes to thunderstorms and tornadoes. But it's a much broader concept. Imagine a ball at the base of a valley. No matter how hard you push that ball up the hill, it's eventually gonna return to its original place. Now imagine a ball at the top of a mountain. You give it a shove and it accelerates down the hill and never returns to it's original location. There is something in meteorology called baroclinic instability. The word baroclinic refers to a zone of temperature contrast, which we clearly have with this front moving through today. The instability refers to a certain threshold that must be met for a low pressure area to form and intensify. What I feel is happening here is that one model run falls just short of that threshold, while the next barely exceeds it, and hence the differences in how far west the precipitation gets tomorrow afternoon and night. And frankly, I'm not smart enough to know which side of that threshold we will end up on. 

So all I know to do is give you the range of possibilities. I will not take credit for any outcome, as I have already admitted to you that my confidence level is very low. The best(worst) case scenario for snow lovers is 3-5 inches. The worst(best) case scenario for the Triangle is a Trace of snow tomorrow afternoon and night. The most likely solution in my mind is 1-3", but I am in no hurry to call my bookie in Vegas and put any money on it!

I know this was a long read, and I hope at least some of it makes sense. I'm not gonna pretend to be confident when I'm not. That would be lying, and my parents brought me up better than to do that! As always, I will keep an eye on things and update as needed. Happy Thursday!

Ole Gregg has been burned so many times on past storms he's become the snow grinch

Just now, Brick Tamland said:

I agree. But it still doesn't mean it's crazy to either have the Euro be totally off or have the NAM make such a dramatic change in 12 hours and only 48 hours out. It's just a message board.

why is it crazy? this is not the first time or will it be the last. You know how hard it is to forecast winter weather down south.  Model chaos is almost expected. 

8 minutes ago, Brick Tamland said:

Funny how they start hyping things when the models start going south.  Meanwhile, Greg Fishel posted on Facebook a few minutes ago we might not even see that much precipitation now. 

Fishel flip flops as the models go

3 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said:

I believe it's more so of the trend towards less and less precip...

i mean not really..the areas that were expected to get the most precip havn't really changed.   

2 minutes ago, Brick Tamland said:

If this falls apart 48 hours out the globals will never be trusted again for winter storms around here. 

Dude..you sing this same song everytime.  Models are tools. experienced Mets who are paid for this look at science not just models. stop living and dying by models and their effectiveness.

3 minutes ago, lilj4425 said:

Models are nowhere near in agreement. NAM gives me almost a foot while Euro is bone dry. 

for areas that i noted, most models are consistent in showing moderate to significant accumulation.

paste job triangle SW and NE on EURO.  feels like models are all in agreement.  Hopefully everyone gets at least  a little snow at some point.  

2 minutes ago, Brick Tamland said:

Greg Fishel's thoughts. 

OK, NOW THAT I'VE RETURNED TO HOME BASE, LET'S TALK ABOUT THIS NEXT STORM!

One thing that is clearly different about this one is that the cold air is going to blast in, and this time it's gonna stick around for the duration of the storm. At this point in time, I honestly believe that everything the Triangle area receives from Thursday night through Friday night will be in the frozen form. And yes it is possible it will be all snow, but I'm not ready to make a commitment on that just yet. Whereas the last system was rapidly intensifying and cutting inland across the southeastern states, this storm will be offshore and weaker, allowing the cold air to make it all the way to the coast. We could even see freezing rain here in Myrtle Beach!

Another thing that's tricky about this one is that instead of a precipitaton shield moving in from another location, in this case it will be developing almost right over us. It's much easier to watch a ball rolling toward you at a certain speed, and estimate when the ball will get to you. It's an entirely different matter when the ball suddenly appears in front of you, and you have to react quickly! Will this storm be a series of weak waves of low pressure, or will there be a consolidation of atmospheric efforts leading to one main surface low pressure area? These are the issues for this particular event, and it will probably be another 24 hours before I feel some degree of confidence as to how weather conditions will evolve late in the week. 

One thing for sure, I won't have to travel 300 miles to see winter weather this time. Mother nature is going to save me a ton of gas money!

he's a believer.