twim19

Easily 10 to 12 for me.  I haven't been out to measure yet, but based around surrounding spots and the rate it is still coming down, we'll get there.  Told my kids to remember this one.  
 

Two more Maryland counties under Blizzard warning.  Wicomico and Somerset have been added to Worcester.

Wicomico and Somerset thrown in there as well.  Trying to remember the last time we were under a Blizzard warning in Salisbury. . .

Projections up to 8-12 now too.

Yeah, yesterday when the WSW was issued, it was for 5-10.  Before I went to bed it was 6-11.  Now it's 6-12.  Alex Seymore is pretty bullish too, so I'm game.  

Off topic: Your signature cracks me up.  I've been lurking in weather forums for about a decade now (How I miss the Accuweather forums) and you are spot on.  

One of our local stations.  
 

I too am on the east side of town and am expecting a foot.  The trends have seemed to be moving towards more, not less and now with the Blizzard warning for OC, I suggests a bigger storm. 

Fortunately, I don't have any reputation to protect and so I can make these outlandish claims and let Dan and Co. keep putting out their conservative estimates.

I was a teen for the blizzard of '96, but I can keenly recall watching the news the night before the storm hit and BBK (our local legendary forecaster who has long since retired) came on to tell us that we were about to get hit with a major blizzard.  I wasn't following models or anything at the time so I don't know if his not telling us sooner was because he didn't know or he was being conservative--I just remember it feeling like a surprise snow storm.

This storm has been great for "We should have a pretty good idea with the next set of model runs" only to have no idea after those models run.  Could we get a little consensus, please?  We almost had it last night with the 0z until the GFS was like "HAHAH"

I wish Alex were joking, but flurries to 2 feet sounds about right (though I'm more confident the lower shore and beaches are still going to easily break warning criteria).  

Euro seems to have simmered down.  Still would be a very nice storm for most of Delmarva, though the trends have me worried.  Onward to the 18z NAM.

Puking snow here.  2inch/hour, I think.  

Moderate flurry started in SE salisbury (near airport). 

Did it?  I never saw the maps for the Euro.  A 30-50 mile shift is not at all unusual with a big dynamic system like this.  12Z GFS came in cold, looking like 10-12 for SBY from the low-res clown map.

Yeah, saw it posted in the accuweather forums, I think.  There's something about this storm that makes me think it's going to veer cold.  That something is probably the snow weenie in me  

Hugging that Euro.  Think the last run kept the 850s off the coast the entire storm.  Only model that's show big accumulations for SBY for three (or more?) straight cycles. 

12z GFS, NAM, CMC, and Euro.  I think it looks good a good bet that the 'Bury gets buried.  

Euro:

http://forums.accuweather.com/index.php?act=attach&type=post&id=277655

The little system that's coming across tonight might end up surprisingly robust. Coming more south than clippers usually do and going right across a warm bay.  

I believe warm air aloft is a concern with the easterly flow we're expecting.

Right! So if that's the case, then the lowest levels might stay cold enough to freeze sleet or rain?

Then again, if the 850s stay cold enough, I have to believe that the precipitation rates might be enough to drag all that cold air down to the surface and keep us snow. 

Obviously, I have no training. . just pondering based on things I've seen happen in the past. 

Wow. Nearly 3 feet of snow in Dover.  

Go home NAM, you're drunk. 

This will be our problem.  I would expect a good thump up front, brief mix, extended rain, brief mix, then snow again at the backend.  I would imagine the only accumulation will be a base layer of slush and then whatever comes at the end.

Aye.  Wish we could just get a nice, fat southern slider.  Coastals rarely end up perfect for us.  

I do wonder, though. . .so the front end is going to drop a nice thump of snow which will have a cooling effect on the lower levels.  If the temps are just above marginal, woudl this keep the lower levels cold enough for freezing rain and/or sleet?

I'll take a foot in the 'Bury and be be quite happy.  How sloppy is it, though?  Much rain to melt all our front-end thump away? Don't mind sleet, but hate the rain in the middle of storms.