nycemt123

Nobody but you guys would understand... my wife truly understands my snow obsession & broke out the meatballs split pea soup!

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Three photos from this morning:

I like the 2-12 call. That's pretty much what I said to my wife a few hours ago. 

I am forecasting 2-12 inches.  Depending on which model verifies.  

It was not an overnight event. Destroyed the evening commute. Started at 2, peak was 4-6 PM. So heaviest was during dark, but just after. https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KNYC/date/2018-11-15

Band missed us by about 2 miles south lol

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It was close but yeah, I was in Goshen and saw only snow, if there was anything else it was very brief.  I did see mPING reports of mixed precip in southern Orange County yesterday afternoon.   

I slipped and slid down the stairs of the train station.  The ice is terrible everywhere.

Thought you guys might find this snippet interesting

https://apple.news/AjU1UC8ilTGabmhH9udcz5Q

Edward Lorenz was a weatherman during World War II, tasked with forecasting cloud cover before American bombing raids in the Pacific. But meteorology in those days was largely guesswork and produced only crude predictions. After the war ended, Lorenz decided to try to unlock the secrets of the weather using more sophisticated methods and harnessing the nascent power of computing. He created a simplified, miniature world on his LGP-30 computer: Instead of the millions of different variables that affect weather systems in the real world, his model had just 12 variables.

One day, Lorenz decided to rerun a simulation he’d done earlier. To save time, he decided to start midway through, plugging in the data points from the prior snapshot. He figured that so long as he set the variables at the same levels, the weather patterns would be repeated just as they were before: same conditions, same outcomes.

But something strange happened instead. The weather in his rerun simulation was different in every way. After a lot of scowling over the data, Lorenz realized what had happened. His computer printouts had rounded data to three decimal places. If, for example, the exact wind speed was 3.506127 miles an hour, the printout displayed it as 3.506 miles an hour. When he plugged the slightly truncated values from the printouts back into the simulation, he was always off by a tiny amount (in this case, just 0.000127 miles an hour). These seemingly meaningless alterations—these tiny rounding errors—were producing major changes.

That observation led Lorenz to a breakthrough discovery. Minuscule changes could make enormous differences: Raising the temperature one-millionth of a degree could morph the weather two months later from clear blue skies into a torrential downpour, even a hurricane. Lorenz’s findings were the origin of the “butterfly effect” concept—the notion that a butterfly flapping its wings in Brazil could trigger a tornado in Texas—and, ultimately, of chaos theory. They also explain why meteorologists are still unable to forecast the weather beyond a short time frame with much accuracy; if any calculation is off by a tiny amount, the longer-term forecast will be useless.


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My street was plowed no less than 4 times this morning between 4 am and 7 am. Ridiculous. 
 
roads are going to be an absolute nightmare later. Temps ticking down closer to 30 now with steady freezing rain. 

24° & freezing rain in monsey, Rockland County

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The severe storm for later Tuesday into Wednesday (January 9-10) remains on track. In terms of deviations from normal, both in terms of precipitation and wind, it will be an infrequent event.
Extreme Forecast Index (EFI) data is below.
Wind Gusts:

Precipitation:

 

Atrocious. That brine does jack shit. The main roads are snow covered, side roads are even worse.

New City looks like a postcard,,,,my son just asked " when are we going for a walk " 

feel like im going nuts in white plains, i can feel the snow coming but nothing yet. im keeping my fingers crossed we dont change over until overnight.
just skated for about 2 hours and it certainly feels plenty cold out there. frozen trucks, if you know you know

I don’t see how we would luck out due to the way that rain is moving and extremely slow at that… certainly looks like flooding rains over the next 12-18 hours unfortunately 

North of 80

The HRRR has a swath of 2-4” today over extreme NNJ and the LHV.

Not looking forward to this event. Really ho0e it busts low.

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Stupid post 

Stupid post 

I don't know why the mayor is doing remote tomorrow 

166 in Rockland County

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Yea, I have the central a/c on and the windows closed. So far the hepa filter is keeping it good inside.

This smoke outside is so gross. Just thought I'd mention it, as it's weather related. It's such a weird sickly color of yellow outside too...

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