southpark

7 minutes ago, KPITSnow said:

I saw that too, but I think there must have been something going on with the output. I just went back and looked at the last 2-3 runs and all gave 1-4 inches county wide.

I think the temps on those model runs are initializing too high too

1 minute ago, TimB84 said:

Remember, regular rain is the only p-type we get in May, and June, and July, and August, and September, and 97% of April and October, and a majority of March and November. Would it kill us to see something interesting like copious amounts of ice or sleet tomorrow?

Yeah it might literally kill people if we see ice so no thank you.

Just now, RitualOfTheTrout said:

Well look at the graphic, there's literally 50 - 100 miles between starting at 10am and starting at 10pm. So it the discussion was written relative to the NWS  office that's probably accurate.

It looks like the progress of the cold just stops for hours once it reaches the outskirts of Allegheny county. 

How is it that Nws says I get to around 32 degrees by noon but freezing rain onset isn't for several hours later?

10 minutes ago, Rd9108 said:

To be honest with you it all fell at night. I would rather save our big storm for when we can see and enjoy it.

Yeah. At least yesterday I didn't have to really see it sleet as it was dark at that point. I say I got between 6 and 7 inches here.  I'll take it.

Just now, MikeB_01 said:

Cropper holding onto the 5-9 for AGC

Did he say why considering we are a decent way off from that at this point?

1 minute ago, KPITSnow said:

I honestly just can't buy that we get anything more than a few more inches. The radar looks awful and its going to take hours for the backside to pivot through. The HRRR continually said we should have had 7 or 8 inches on the ground already while I'm not sure if I have three.

It is what it is at this point. I'm not sure we even get to a warning level even. Maybe the airport will being on the west side of the county but this is a huge bust.

I will gladly take just a few more inches at this point!

Well that line coming in definitely has sleet in it...At least for me it does.

13 minutes ago, TheClimateChanger said:

Sad to say the orientation of this just doesn't look optimal for Pittsburgh. Doesn't look like the heaviest bands will pivot in time for the big totals. NAM showing up to about 40" of snow now in Geauga County, Ohio.

 

Forget heavy bands, I would take just some snow showers at this point. Lol

7 minutes ago, MikeB_01 said:

me too

Doesn't mean we can't still see nice rates!

11 minutes ago, Ahoff said:

Rates picked up here.

I am getting better rates here too. 

17 minutes ago, KPITSnow said:

TO get off my doom and gloom about the storm, I do want to say I really do miss the old NWS radar. The snapshot of it you see before you click into it is still the old radar so I generally just zoom in on my phone.

I seriously HATE this newer radar. Awful

1 hour ago, Rd9108 said:

Chill out everybody wait until the storm gets to us first to start freaking out.

It looks like heavier returns are going to start coming into the county very soon

1 minute ago, KPITSnow said:

My point and click cut back totals and added in mix to the wording. Not a great sign.

I was just getting ready to report the same thing.

3 minutes ago, jwilson said:

I think 6-12" is a fine call for now.  There's a slight chance it overperforms locally, but this isn't the most congealed looking precip shield currently and thus accounting for potential threats to the maximum potential.  On a "bust scale" of 1 to 10, I'd probably put this at a 7.  It isn't the cleanest looking setup.  However, in our relatively snow-starved climate for big ones, we take a double-digit potential any day even if it comes with caveats.

Hope for the best as we watch it roll in.

Buzzkill 

3 minutes ago, Rd9108 said:

yep and hopefully mother nature does what it wants and gives us a surprise 

I think things trend better for us. These model runs seem to want to bring it a little further east.

1 minute ago, KPITSnow said:

Probably not. How many times here have we been 5 degrees only to be 45 and rain a day later?

I did notice the NWS dropped my expected high temp for today by 5 degrees this morning.

2 minutes ago, KPITSnow said:

Lol, it was, but I think I saw MAG say that when the 3KM gets in range he tosses the regular one.

THe NAM has been an extreme outlier for awhile now.

We just need a small tick SE to really be in business

1 minute ago, TimB84 said:

The regular NAM was terrible.

Hi-res NAM looked decent though.

2 minutes ago, Burghblizz said:

That’s the plan!

(but I plan on a fun night regardless)

Wait...the Steelers play tonight? Something exists outside of tracking this storm? 

On another forum there are some surprises being reported down south with snow where not really forecasted by models, etc. Anything can happen.

12 minutes ago, vortmax said:

Wow 27 - 0. Wish the NAM would fold like the Pats

This game is a thing of beauty so far!

3 minutes ago, KPITSnow said:

I think the NAM is caving.....

 

Edit: Not fully but it is going to be drastically better.

Our SREF total went up so I was hoping the NAM came in better.

7 minutes ago, KPITSnow said:

Lol, how much does that say? We are literally the bullseye.

Inject that straight into my veins lol

5 minutes ago, MikeB_01 said:

Look at that 31.5 bullseye in Erie


.

These are the only times I wish I still lived up there lol.