MoistWx

11 hours ago, MJO812 said:

Gfs 

Yeah... can someone else take one for the team on this one? I can throw in some boudin and crawfish to sweeten the deal lol. Pretty sure the city just came by recently to do their "last" round of debris pickup for Laura/Delta.

Not the best SS of it, but wow. Thing is a monster.

1 minute ago, CheeselandSkies said:

Dorian was from '19.

Oops... Yes, good catch. That's what I get for posting while also being in severe weenie mode 

According to the WMO, the names Dorian, Laura, Eta and Iota from the 2020 Atlantic Hurricane Season have been retired. The Greek alphabet will no longer be used for future hurricane seasons, and a supplemental name list will be used in its place. Interesting.

https://public.wmo.int/en/media/press-release/wmo-hurricane-committee-retires-tropical-cyclone-names-and-ends-use-of-greek

For anyone wondering, this is what the majority of roads in Lake Charles look like at the moment. I assume the surrounding cities that were impacted look similar as well. Debris pick-up was starting to make progress on some of the more busy roads, but just barely. Mostly only semi-cleared on the main arteries. It was nice having north facing windows for a bit I guess? .

With a large pile of debris in eyeshot of my apartment and a tarp on the roof (the normal around the city right now), yeah, can confirm I'd rather not have this one.

Interesting. Wasn't really expecting to see a mid-day day 3 update come out.

Quote

   ....Louisiana and Mississippi upgraded to Enhanced Risk for
   Thursday...
   Models are in good agreement with the general setup for Thursday,
   indicating a deepening upper trough across the lower MS Valley. Wind
   profiles will increase throughout the period, ahead of a developing
   squall line. Models indicate substantial low-level moisture will
   surge northward early through midday across LA, with cells possibly
   developing ahead of the ongoing frontal convection to the west. Any
   cells ahead of the line could be supercells capable of tornadoes.
   With time, a consolidation into a severe QLCS is expected.
   Hodographs will be supportive of supercells and/or embedded
   corridors of significant wind and a few tornadoes. A strong tornado
   is possible. 

 

Last couple of HRRR runs want to push an isolated cell through Central LA overnight with the warm front retreating north. Cant think this would really cause too many problems with the overall environment... But wonder if it could leave some remnant mesoscale boundaries that could persist until initiation time tomorrow.

11 hours ago, Chinook said:

Fairly good verification on this day-1 outlook

6 more tornadoes surveyed by LCH today too per the PNS. I believe LIX and SHV might have confirmed a few more as well. 

Public Information Statement
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
830 PM CDT Fri Nov 2 2018


...NWS Damage Survey for 10/31/18 and 11/1/18 Tornado Event...

.West Bundick Lake Tornado...

Rating:                   EF-1
Estimated Peak Wind:      107 MPH
Path length /Statute/:    1.5 Miles
Path width /Maximum/:     280 Yards
Fatalities:               0
Injuries:                 0

Start date:               OCT 31 2018
Start time:               940 PM CDT
Start location:           10 SE DeRidder/Beauregard/LA
Start Lat/Lon:            30.7193 / -93.2022

End date:                 OCT 31 2018
End time:                 943 PM CDT
End location:             9 SSE DeRidder/Beauregard/LA
End_lat/lon:              30.7389 / -93.1926

Survey Summary: A tornado snapped several trees along Chester Davis Road,
northeast to Lumas Road.

.Southwest Sugartown Tornado...

Rating:                   EF-1
Estimated Peak Wind:      104 MPH
Path length /Statute/:    2.6 Miles
Path width /Maximum/:     300 Yards
Fatalities:               0
Injuries:                 0

Start date:               OCT 31 2018
Start time:               1143 PM CDT
Start location:           6 SW Sugartown/Beauregard/LA
Start Lat/Lon:            30.8151 / -93.1132

End date:                 OCT 31 2018
End time:                 1146 PM CDT
End location:             4 SSW Sugartown/Beauregard/LA
End_lat/lon:              30.8140 / -93.0702

Survey Summary: A tornado started east of Rutherford Road, and moved
across Vaughn Road, ending near Smyrna Road. Several trees were snapped.

.Oakdale/Turkey Creek Tornado...

Rating:                   EF-2
Estimated Peak Wind:      118 MPH
Path length /Statute/:    13.3 Miles
Path width /Maximum/:     900 Yards
Fatalities:               0
Injuries:                 0

Start date:               NOV 01 2018
Start time:               1217 AM CDT
Start location:           1 S Oakdale/Allen/LA
Start Lat/Lon:            30.7914 / -92.6606

End date:                 NOV 01 2018
End time:                 1233 AM CDT
End location:             4 NW Turkey Creek/Evangeline/LA
End_lat/lon:              30.9027 / -92.4782

Survey Summary: A strong tornado started south of Highway 10, and as it crossed
the highway it snapped several power poles. The tornado then moved down Cypress
Creek Road, where it snapped numerous trees and power lines. In Evangeline Parish,
it moved from Cypress Creek Road to Cypress Road and Red Lick Road, before
dissipating south of the Rapides Parish line. Many trees and power lines were down.

.Hessmer Tornado...

Rating:                   EF-2
Estimated Peak Wind:      122 MPH
Path length /Statute/:    13.6 Miles
Path width /Maximum/:     800 Yards
Fatalities:               0
Injuries:                 0

Start date:               NOV 01 2018
Start time:               1250 AM CDT
Start location:           2 SE Cheneyville/Rapides/LA
Start Lat/Lon:            30.9874 / -92.2640

End date:                 NOV 01 2018
End time:                 106 AM CDT
End location:             4 NE Hessmer/Avoyelles/LA
End_lat/lon:              31.0786 / -92.0629

Survey Summary: The tornado started near US Highway 71 near Cheneyville, snapping
several power poles. As it moved northeast, it blew down many trees and power lines.
The most significant damage was to a new home on Bordelon Road, built of steel beams
and metal sheets. A large roll up door was blown in, and picked up an outside AC unit,
tossing it into the garage. The steel beams were bent in three-fourths of the building.
Half of the metal roof was blown off, and what remained shifted several inches. One
exterior wall shifted several inches. Several other homes on Bordelon Street had part
of their roofs removed. Many trees were snapped and power lines were downed. Tree
damage was noted on Highway 115 south of Hessmer, and the tornado dissipated before
it reached Highway 1 in Mansura.

.Russells Landing Tornado...

Rating:                   EF-1
Estimated Peak Wind:      107 MPH
Path length /Statute/:    9.9 Miles
Path width /Maximum/:     350 Yards
Fatalities:               0
Injuries:                 0

Start date:               NOV 01 2018
Start time:               113 AM CDT
Start location:           4 ENE Marksville/Avoyelles/LA
Start Lat/Lon:            31.1468 / -91.9918

End date:                 NOV 01 2018
End time:                 127 AM CDT
End location:             14 NE Marksville/Avoyelles/LA
End_lat/lon:              31.2513 / -91.8780

Survey Summary: A tornado started in remote areas east of Marksville, and moved across
Lake Ophelia Wildlife Refuge, where numerous trees were blown down or snapped. At
Russells Landing, many trees were blown down or snapped. One landed on an RV. The
tornado dissipated northeast of that region in the wildlife refuge.

EF Scale:  The Enhanced Fujita Scale Classifies Tornadoes into
the following categories.

EF0...Weak......65 to 85 MPH
EF1...Weak......86 to 110 MPH
EF2...Strong....111 to 135 MPH
EF3...Strong....136 to 165 MPH
EF4...Violent...166 To 200 MPH
EF5...Violent...>200 MPH

Note:
The information in this statement is preliminary and subject to
change pending final review of the events and publication in NWS
Storm Data.

And the other:

"Public Information Statement
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
241 PM CDT Fri Nov 2 2018

...NWS Damage Survey for 11/01/18 Tornado Event...

.Iowa Tornado...

Rating:                   EF-1
Estimated Peak Wind:      90 MPH
Path length /Statute/:    0.97 Miles
Path width /Maximum/:     75 Yards
Fatalities:               0
Injuries:                 0

Start date:               Nov 01 2018
Start time:               1230 AM CDT
Start location:           5 SSW Iowa/Calcasieu/LA
Start lat/lon:            30.1758/-93.0467

End date:                 Nov 01 2018
End time:                 1232 AM CDT
End location:             5 SSW Iowa/Calcasieu/LA
End lat/lon:              30.1660/-93.0349

Survey Summary: A weak tornado formed north of Nick Martone Road
and moved to the southeast. The tornado crossed Nick Martone Road
where it damaged two outbuildings. The tornado then dissipated in
a field south of Nick Martone Road.

EF Scale:  The Enhanced Fujita Scale Classifies Tornadoes into
the following categories.

EF0...Weak......65 to 85 MPH
EF1...Weak......86 to 110 MPH
EF2...Strong....111 to 135 MPH
EF3...Strong....136 to 165 MPH
EF4...Violent...166 To 200 MPH
EF5...Violent...>200 MPH

Note:
The information in this statement is preliminary and subject to
change pending final review of the event and publication in NWS
Storm Data."