burrel2 Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Ukmet looks terrible. AT 72 hours it has a strengthening surface low located over northern LA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 If I didn't have to work I might have taken a field trip west for this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Ukmet looks terrible. AT 72 hours it has a strengthening surface low located over northern LA. Figures you get one model on your side and another one folds. *sigh* it's just one of those winters with the models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 little bit of a change there.... what a piece of crap model. I would guess it's not done changing either. Do you think it finally has it, or will it transition even more? I truly have not idea where it's heading. By the time it finally arrives, it may have given snow and taken away snow from just about everyone in the SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEGa Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Looks like it Misses DC and then curves back into New England. I think another storm did that earlier this season. Anyway, if yo look at the 850 temps, you can clearly see how the GFS is seeing dynamic cooling, then when precip is over, we warm up for a few hours aloft, then the cold advection kicks in. We pull it out by the skin of our teeth, honestly those are th best snows, if you like high rates. Of course now all eyes on GEM and the Euro. Lets hope we keep this track. It would be good for southern half of TN, northern and central Ala, Mis, GA and western CArolinas, and turning to snow eastern Carolinas. The qpf is very low on this run. maybe the christmas storm? it seems like we got a lot of snow, and NE had the blizzard and the MA pretty much missed out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Good post Brandon... Love the jump in that time frame.. and yes POS model.... little bit of a change there.... what a piece of crap model. So true man... I would guess it's not done changing either. Do you think it finally has it, or will it transition even more? I truly have not idea where it's heading. By the time it finally arrives, it may have given snow and taken away snow from just about everyone in the SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itunis Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 what may be more amusing, is now that the gfs is catching on, the euro will start to loose it like the last couple of events. if it does, then roars back at the last minute and the RUC shows copious qpf we could be in business for yet another really good se winter storm lol i was posting the above when you were posting this. i agree and am getting fairly excited again. i know its still far out, but jeesh this really does seem to be sort of following the trends and pattern with the se storms all winter The Euro has a dark sense of humor, I'm sure the 12Z or 0Z will show an inland runner lol. While it's far from a lock at this point (what I'd give to have another 1/9-10 storm with plentiful cold air), the GFS coming on board to some extent is pretty inspiring. I tend to go easy on FFC, but now that their favorite model the GFS is on board there is no reason to continue being so pessimistic assuming the rest of the 12Z suite looks bullish. Even the NAM shows sig. snow for parts of the CWA, if not for the immediate metro area. I know I gave them a pass last night, but with fresh model data starting to strongly suggest a major winter storm for at least the far N CWA they need to start speaking up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 HP seems to me that it is sliding out. At 90, it is centered WELL east of Maine. That seems to fit the fact that the GFS has GSO hitting 45 Tuesday afternoon and 48 on Wednesday afternoon. Sure 850's stay around freezing, but if the hp were "locked in", temps would be MUCH colder. My thoughts are that will the track of the lp, we'll see the hp start to hold in a little better. Otherwise, it's going to be a cold rain or a warm/wet snow for alot of folks. I think it will make the turn as opposed to ots. TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 I'll bet the Euro goes more with the GFS and is further SE with the low (compared to last nights run) but further NW with the precip...just got that feeling on it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 If the high stays in place during the storm it's an epic win for Brandon. Well i don't think it's going to stay in place per say, but i woudn't be surprised if we see some of the models slow down with how fast they are pulling it out. I just hope folks are buckled up. This is going to be a wild ride. UKMET is now inland, gfs is off the coast, euro is in the middle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Ukmet looks terrible. AT 72 hours it has a strengthening surface low located over northern LA. UK was awful for the Xmas storm, but with the NAM and UK showing Apps runners that is not good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 The fine line you mentioned is how (at least in the foothills of WNC) we score big snows. Heavy rates, large flakes blacking out the sky.. All around 34-30 degrees. I was at 34 for most of the day on 12/25 and scored 5"... HP seems to me that it is sliding out. At 90, it is centered WELL east of Maine. That seems to fit the fact that the GFS has GSO hitting 45 Tuesday afternoon and 48 on Wednesday afternoon. Sure 850's stay around freezing, but if the hp were "locked in", temps would be MUCH colder. My thoughts are that will the track of the lp, we'll see the hp start to hold in a little better. Otherwise, it's going to be a cold rain or a warm/wet snow for alot of folks. I think it will make the turn as opposed to ots. TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Well i don't think it's going to stay in place per say, but i woudn't be surprised if we see some of the models slow down with how fast they are pulling it out. I just hope folks are buckled up. This is going to be a wild ride. UKMET is now inland, gfs is off the coast, euro is in the middle. Well that's what I meant, you were all over that high staying in place a little longer.....it's the roller coaster now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 If that verified I think we might be buried there buddy. GFS gives clt .48 of snow by Wednesday morning, but surface temps don't get below 34. With all the cold air to the north, I think you'll see these temps correct downward, at least with the current track on the GFS. TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
keithinala Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Looks like it Misses DC and then curves back into New England. I think another storm did that earlier this season. Anyway, if yo look at the 850 temps, you can clearly see how the GFS is seeing dynamic cooling, then when precip is over, we warm up for a few hours aloft, then the cold advection kicks in. We pull it out by the skin of our teeth, honestly those are th best snows, if you like high rates. Of course now all eyes on GEM and the Euro. Lets hope we keep this track. It would be good for southern half of TN, northern and central Ala, Mis, GA and western CArolinas, and turning to snow eastern Carolinas. The qpf is very low on this run. Enjoy your analysis very much. One question. What do you think about surface temps for somewhere like Huntsville, Al...models keep trying to show it as rain and above freezing, with over an inch of QPF. Should we be worried about that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itunis Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 UK was awful for the Xmas storm, but with the NAM and UK showing Apps runners that is not good I do believe phil882 posted verification rankings for the models that had the Ukie coming out on top (or near the top at least) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 I'll bet the Euro goes more with the GFS and is further SE with the low (compared to last nights run) but further NW with the precip...just got that feeling on it. I hope your feeling is correct. I'm kind of leaning towards a track of the 0z euro. Not as good for my area but if I had to say, that's the track I would go with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 RDU gets .50. 850's between 0 and 2. Surface temps bottom out @ 35-36 during storm. Just stating what the gfs is putting out.. TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 I do believe phil882 posted verification rankings for the models that had the Ukie coming out on top (or near the top at least) It did, I think it was 2nd w/in 3 days but packbacker is correct, it was awful on the Christmas storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 No doubt man!! Well that's what I meant, you were all over that high staying in place a little longer.....it's the roller coaster now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 BooHoo GFS gives me .04 of snow. lol But I would bet it will be a Inland track rather than a coastal track ! I just hope not to far Inland........ Stinking GFS has got me to smoking again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bingcrosbyb Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 UKMET Day 3 http://vortex.plymouth.edu/gifs/110122163209.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 BooHoo GFS gives me .04 of snow. lol But I would bet it will be a Inland track rather than a coastal track ! I just hope not to far Inland........ Stop wishcasting! Just kidding. I'd bet on a more inland solution as this has plenty of time for the models to flip back what they were showing 24-48 hours ago. I do, however, like the trend for MBY. It's just that daggon' 0c line, no matter where the track, it's over my house. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Czar Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Ukmet looks terrible. AT 72 hours it has a strengthening surface low located over northern LA. Trough is still positive tilt tho. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 I do believe phil882 posted verification rankings for the models that had the Ukie coming out on top (or near the top at least) A MET from the NY board was stating just because the UK is ranked 2nd does not necessarily mean it handles EC storms the 2nd best. This was earlier in the week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 I have to disagree with you about the surface high; it is completely offshore by hour 72. There is a weak hybrid-cad signature for a while, but I think it's pretty obvious that we quickly lose all caa as we progress beyond 72 hours. What is your opinion of precip type in the Triangle, based on the GFS specifically? The track appears to be favorable, with the low strengthening. That looks good, but the cold seems to still be marginal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 I do believe phil882 posted verification rankings for the models that had the Ukie coming out on top (or near the top at least) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Trough is still positive tilt tho. if i had to guess, i would say it's going to take it up central ga/sc/nc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Czar Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Lol.. A lot of discussion about the gfs that just came to the party. I bet its track temps and qpf is all wrong. What a joke of a model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 GFS looks good for me .04 qpf I was waiting on you after I saw that doughnot hole show up. Trust me this would give you atleast a .5 qpf id be willing to bet. Every model that runs, with the exception of the now late to the party gfs(screwed up qpf ) has you in all snow no matter how you slice it. After last night runs, Id say with strong confidence pilot is in the same boat with you in regards to not having to worry about any 850 gimmicks. Powerstroke should feel pretty safe as well. From me east is where the transition line will waver. I feel pretty good after last night euro/ukie. GFS track is right on par with those 2 models. Its the track and the point of negative tilt Im interested in. Also I feel the theory of HP sliding out fast/scouring CAD/50/50 absent e.t.c doesnt carry as much weight up our way like it does down in NE GA/Upstate at the moment if the storm will come on in Tuesday. Been good trends for the Triad since last night, with maybe the exception of the 12z NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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