First Legit Storm Potential of the Season Upon Us

[mahk_webstah]

32 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Not very good in short term. It def kicked the operational’s butts though in that D3-5 period. 

Maybe that’s the take away. Good with the pattern in the medium range but not great with the details in the short range. If that’s the case, that would be a good thing to know going forward.

[dryslot]

You want it to get it right in the shorter terms though.

[dryslot]

Nobody is shoveling day 3-5 snow.

[Baroclinic Zone]

4 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Nobody is shoveling day 3-5 snow.

Emotional shoveling 

[mahk_webstah]

6 minutes ago, dryslot said:

You want it to get it right in the shorter terms though.

Absolutely but for meteorologists, and for very skilled and knowledgeable hobbies like yourself, you want to know which models to use at what point and in what context. So if that’s where the AI models are now then that’s where they are.

[dryslot]

Just now, Baroclinic Zone said:

Emotional shoveling 

Seen plenty of tears from a bunch on here that you would probably need a pump instead of a shovel, Maybe now this will subside some.

[dryslot]

6 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said:

Absolutely but for meteorologists, and for very skilled and knowledgeable hobbies like yourself, you want to know which models to use at what point and in what context. So if that’s where the AI models are now then that’s where they are.

TY, This is true, But we have many that are already decent in the mid term but very few getting it right in the short term.

[dendrite]

45 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said:

Maybe that’s the take away. Good with the pattern in the medium range but not great with the details in the short range. If that’s the case, that would be a good thing to know going forward.

That’s why I like them more for the extended and mid range. Granted that was an AI ens to begin with, but even with the “op” AI I’m still hesitant to use use them close in except for trends. Yeah, the coarseness tightens up as we get closer, but it hasn’t been to regular op gradients. But it’s a new tool and we’re all figuring out how to use it. 

[ORH_wxman]

49 minutes ago, dryslot said:

You want it to get it right in the shorter terms though.

Yes but we just don’t use it in the shorter term since we have great short term models. If we can rely on AI as a solid tool for medium range, then that has a lot of value. 

[ORH_wxman]

Fwiw, I think it’s good to talk about it a lot because the more we all recognize and point out where the AIs were successful, then we can start to pick up patterns….maybe they are good in some types of setups and crappier in others relative to the OP guidance. 

[weatherwiz]

This was an absolutely confidence boost in taking AI more seriously in the medium range. Now, we can't assume that AI is just going to nail the medium range but the value this could provide is huge. Inside of 48 hours we just continue relying on the mesos and.

[vortex95]

I still like 2-5" for SNE, srn NH, and coastal ME.  Now, will the rear weenie squall mesolow thingy push some locations to 6 or 7".  As CoastalWx always said to me years ago, "WE'LL SEE!" (implied optimism in his tone).  There is a distinct vort at 500 w/ this thing, and a clear twist/hook in the pcpn pattern as it gets just off Cape Ann.  If there is TSW+ in Weymouth? LOL.

Going back to ydy, 10.5" at Savoy MA for the max.  That is among the biggest synoptic snowfalls in SNE I can recall for such a "lame" sfc low/track (weak and well NW) and SW winds sfc and aloft the entire time.  It was screaming SW 30-60 kt 925-850 during the event, yet it stayed all snow.  Not just elevated areas either. 4" in Haverhill MA and 4.8" Old Orchard Beach ME.

So the piecemeal, piling on, lgt-mdt SN events continue this winter.  Ydy was it central and west, today will be central and east.  But CoastalWx still grumpy I bet.  "I want a KU to end all KUs!!!"  

The 1.3" at Marianna FL this morning, did it w/ nothing atypical for a pattern across the CONUS.  Fairly avg ridge/trough wave pattern currently.  FL had accumulated snow 2 years in a row March 1954 and 1955.  In Feb 2010, accumulating snow occurred twice in 3 days.

CoastalWx *not* happy about the "cold 'n dry, kiss'em goodbye" pattern after today the global model op runs show?!  But the GEFS gives hope for next weekend!  Does look like a nasty snow/ice event from the Srn Plains to SEUS.
 

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 minutes ago, vortex95 said:

I still like 2-5" for SNE, srn NH, and coastal ME.  Now, will the rear weenie squall mesolow thingy push some locations to 6 or 7".  As CoastalWx always said to me years ago, "WE'LL SEE!" (implied optimism in his tone).  There is a distinct vort at 500 w/ this thing, and a clear twist/hook in the pcpn pattern as it gets just off Cape Ann.  If there is TSW+ in Weymouth? LOL.

Going back to ydy, 10.5" at Savoy MA for the max.  That is among the biggest synoptic snowfalls in SNE I can recall for such a "lame" sfc low/track (weak and well NW) and SW winds sfc and aloft the entire time.  It was screaming SW 30-60 kt 925-850 during the event, yet it stayed all snow.  Not just elevated areas either. 4" in Haverhill MA and 4.8" Old Orchard Beach ME.

So the piecemeal, piling on, lgt-mdt SN events continue this winter.  Ydy was it central and west, today will be central and east.  But CoastalWx still grumpy I bet.  "I want a KU to end all KUs!!!"  

The 1.3" at Marianna FL this morning, did it w/ nothing atypical for a pattern across the CONUS.  Fairly avg ridge/trough wave pattern currently.  FL had accumulated snow 2 years in a row March 1954 and 1955.  In Feb 2010, accumulating snow occurred twice in 3 days.

CoastalWx *not* happy about the "cold 'n dry, kiss'em goodbye pattern after today the global model op runs show?!  But the GEFS gives hope for next weekend!  Does look like a nasty snow/ice event from the Srn Plains to SEUS.
 

I'm on the Haverhill line....3.25".

[The 4 Seasons]

11 hours ago, weatherwiz said:

If referring to bufkit, both are separate. If you’re using cobb11 it’s deriving the snow ratios from 5 or 6 products. 

If you choose maxT in profile you can adjust the max temp to compute different ratios 

i know, i was just asking what you were using in that image you posted, it must have been max temp.

i dont see how to adjust the max temp, its just button you click, theres no options. you can adjust fixed ratios but thats it. maybe you're using a newer version but from what i can tell Bukit19 is the latest version. 

[TheSnowman]

20 hours ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

I think the box map looks pretty good to be honest, widespread 4-6” pretty much across the board. 

We definitely lost the slightly juicier solutions that were doing 6-8”, but not a huge difference.

I do think someone in maybe an Attleboro to Easton area could do 6 or 7” and box has also highlighted that potential 

This was Spot On in Both Statements.  And I’m Just West of Attleboro and 200’ higher.  I’m going to end with at least 6.5” in an Overachieving Happy Storm.  Been Big Flake Fluff since 6pm.  

[weatherwiz]

9 hours ago, The 4 Seasons said:

i know, i was just asking what you were using in that image you posted, it must have been max temp.

i dont see how to adjust the max temp, its just button you click, theres no options. you can adjust fixed ratios but thats it. maybe you're using a newer version but from what i can tell Bukit19 is the latest version. 

My bad  totally misunderstood.

I was actually using cobb11 in that screen shot

You're right...its not the max temp you can adjust, its the fixed ratio. 

[The 4 Seasons]

1 hour ago, weatherwiz said:

My bad  totally misunderstood.

I was actually using cobb11 in that screen shot

You're right...its not the max temp you can adjust, its the fixed ratio. 

lol thanks i was like huh, he must have read that wrong

[weatherwiz]

2 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said:

lol thanks i was like huh, he must have read that wrong

I sure did...I was reading it while eating breakfast and making coffee lol.