Area of interest in the central Atlantic (currently at 10/60)

[Michelle Davies]

Model runs have this taking a similar path to Gabby, but at a higher intensity.

https://weather.substack.com/p/september-21-2025-sunday-hurricane
 

[Michelle Davies]

An extract from Maue’s newsletter:

Two more areas being watched by NHC including a new 30% yellow hatchling based upon ensemble guidance from the A.I. models.

The 60% orange will be our next Invest and likely to develop into Humberto in next 5-7 days. Models also show it becoming a major hurricane on a similar course as Gabrielle.
 

ECMWF 12-Days Integrated Vapor Transport | 12z cycle

 

 

 

Flagship model ECMWF 12z now develops Humberto north of the Caribbean in 5-6 days … but not seeing the yellow hatchling catching fire (NHC 20%) 

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Atlantic Satellite Imagery | Infrared

 

 

 

NOAA Tropical Surface Analysis | 12z

 

 

 

Atlantic Tropical Waves = 2 

Sea Surface Temperature + Anomaly | ECMWF 12z Analysis

 

 

Anomalously warm water centered upon Bermuda
 

 

ECMWF EPS 12z Ensemble | All Cyclone Tracks Through 7-days

 

 

 

ECMWF EPS 12z Ensemble | All Cyclone Tracks Through 12-days

 

 

 

I see Humberto — and there are a few more tracks that randomly extend westward presumably from a leftover tropical wave — but low chances < 10% 

ECMWF EPS 12z Ensemble | All Cyclone Tracks Through 15-days

 

 

 

Gabrielle and Humberto but small chance of something else (< 10%) through 15-days (October 6) 

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AIFS-ENS Comparison at 12z | All tracks at Day 7

 

 

 

The A.I. trained ensembles also show Humberto … and if we look at the MSLP contours at Day 10 — a bunch of members show a TS or Hurricane from the Gulf to Bahamas. 

 

 

AIFS-ENS Comparison at 12z | All tracks at Day 12

 

 

 

Meanwhile — AIFS blows up more member tracks w/ TS/Hurricane west of Humberto in the Gulf and out of the Caribbean 

AIFS-ENS Comparison at 12z | Active Tracks at Day 15

 

 

 

 

[Michelle Davies]

Nooooo! Looks like I’d have to reformat the links but I gotta get up early for work! I’ll do it later!