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Upstate/Eastern New York

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BGM hitting on the potential as well...mentioning potential banding. Won't factor much for me in the SE corner of their CWA but definitely will to the north of here

 

Meanwhile, a surface low will start to develop near Long Island
and this low will deepen quickly as it tracks into western New
England. The approaching upper level trough starts to become
neutral to negatively tilted, slowing down its eastward
movement. 12Z model guidance shows an area heavy precipitation
developing Wednesday night from Steuben County northeast into
the Adirondacks. The latest guidance shows an area of PVA
entering western NY and enhancing forcing ahead of a strong
150+ knot jet at 300mb, with the bullseye of the left exit
region passing the Western Southern Tier and into the Tug Hill
by early Thursday morning. As the column continues to cool
Wednesday night, dynamic cooling should cause precipitation
to quickly change from rain to snow after 0Z Thursday from west
to east. At this time, the highest confidence for possible heavy
snow will be in line with the area mentioned above...from Steuben
County to Oneida County, where more than 4 inches may fall. It
is looking likely that a band of heavy snow is going to set up
somewhere, based on the impressive forcing, and amounts could
end up much higher where this band ends up.

StormTotalSnowWeb.png

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3 minutes ago, crossbowftw3 said:

BGM hitting on the potential as well...mentioning potential banding. Won't factor much for me in the SE corner of their CWA but definitely will to the north of here

 

Meanwhile, a surface low will start to develop near Long Island
and this low will deepen quickly as it tracks into western New
England. The approaching upper level trough starts to become
neutral to negatively tilted, slowing down its eastward
movement. 12Z model guidance shows an area heavy precipitation
developing Wednesday night from Steuben County northeast into
the Adirondacks. The latest guidance shows an area of PVA
entering western NY and enhancing forcing ahead of a strong
150+ knot jet at 300mb, with the bullseye of the left exit
region passing the Western Southern Tier and into the Tug Hill
by early Thursday morning. As the column continues to cool
Wednesday night, dynamic cooling should cause precipitation
to quickly change from rain to snow after 0Z Thursday from west
to east. At this time, the highest confidence for possible heavy
snow will be in line with the area mentioned above...from Steuben
County to Oneida County, where more than 4 inches may fall. It
is looking likely that a band of heavy snow is going to set up
somewhere, based on the impressive forcing, and amounts could
end up much higher where this band ends up.

StormTotalSnowWeb.png

and the HE totals, would be a sizable storm in its own right in January lol

SnowAmt90Prcntl.png

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I’m contemplating driving up somewhere upstate NY for the winter finale. If we get closer and there’s a shot for 15-20” somewhere I’ll do it. I give that about a 10% chance but ya never know! It’s a pretty potent ULL but it closes off too far NE. Wish the block could force it South some.

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5 hours ago, Syrmax said:

Deep thoughts:

If we are not here for the storm...did it really happen?

We’ll take pictures. 

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1 hour ago, Wentzadelphia said:

Anyone on here from near like Malone NY? Wonder if that could be a good destination 

If you head that far north I think somewhere like Saranac Lake or Lake Placid with good elevation would be a better spot. Malone isn’t exactly a snowy place, downsloping off the Dacks probably limits their totals. 

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44 minutes ago, Buffalo Bumble said:

If you head that far north I think somewhere like Saranac Lake or Lake Placid with good elevation would be a better spot. Malone isn’t exactly a snowy place, downsloping off the Dacks probably limits their totals. 

Thank you! Had no clue about the elevation there. The models keep showing heavy totals up that way but i learned my lesson on my last chase to Colorado. 

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52 minutes ago, Buffalo Bumble said:

If you head that far north I think somewhere like Saranac Lake or Lake Placid with good elevation would be a better spot. Malone isn’t exactly a snowy place, downsloping off the Dacks probably limits their totals. 

I was aiming for those really heavy totals in the extreme N part of the state. Just saw Malone was near that. If you take the 00z NAM at face value (heh) it seems like 3 maxes like up near that area and NW, then Lake placid region, and near Syracuse. I guess Syracuse region could be a fun trip. 

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1 hour ago, rochesterdave said:

Ok 0z. Maybe starting to see a little less on the western edge. IDK. I’m still very skeptical. It’s fun to watch though. Anything will be more than expected. 

I'm with you Dave...we've pretty much all been bitten hard by the models this past winter season at some point.

But, much like a punched-drunk boxer, getting up just before the ref calls the fight, we go one last time!

With the bulk of the snow falling overnight Wed, and temperatures (for a lot of areas) most of Thurs below freezing on pretty strong CAA, the totals that many of the models are putting out look somewhat reasonable....

...and maybe some stout LES early Thurs night to boot!!!

 

image.thumb.png.96c8bd04b9106fbf2a8cea73eb1d8dc9.png

image.thumb.png.68168bbb58a2388660015caf81c56e9d.png

image.thumb.png.670e3a922e0161f9b9d3cccac0dbe25f.png

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7 hours ago, Wentzadelphia said:

I was aiming for those really heavy totals in the extreme N part of the state. Just saw Malone was near that. If you take the 00z NAM at face value (heh) it seems like 3 maxes like up near that area and NW, then Lake placid region, and near Syracuse. I guess Syracuse region could be a fun trip. 

Hills south of Syracuse?

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Temps aren't really that marginal.. Mid-upper 20s during the afternoon hours.. Obviously the sun angle will still be an issue somewhat..

namconus_T2m_neus_45 (1).png

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