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2021 Short/Medium Range Severe Thread


Hoosier
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2 hours ago, fluoronium said:

ILX confirms 4 EF-U tornadoes so far for yesterday's event: https://www.weather.gov/ilx/May3_2021_SevereWeather

I ended up chasing further south than I originally intended, and was able to observe the weak tornado near Ashland, IL. I'm pretty sure I captured another tornado near Raymond, IL as well.

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How do you embed your photos? Like how do you generate the link for them? At least I assume that's how you're doing it...

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Interesting Meso

 
  
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0552  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK  
0110 PM CDT THU MAY 06 2021  
  
AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL/EAST-CENTRAL IL  
  
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY   
  
VALID 061810Z - 062015Z  
  
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT  
  
SUMMARY...UNIQUE ENVIRONMENT CAPABLE OF BRIEF LANDSPOUTS WILL EXIST  
ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS.  
  
DISCUSSION...FILTERED DIURNAL HEATING AHEAD OF THE FRONT HAS  
RESULTED IN STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN A NARROW CORRIDOR AHEAD  
OF THE COLD FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL/EAST-CENTRAL IL. STEEP MID-LEVEL  
LAPSE RATES EXIST ATOP THESE STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES, RESULTING  
IN A THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE CHARACTERIZED BY AT LEAST 7.0 DEG C/KM  
LAPSE RATES FROM THE SURFACE TO ABOVE 500-MB. ADDITIONALLY,  
INCREASED SURFACE VORTICITY EXISTS IN THE IMMEDIATE VICINITY OF THE  
FRONTAL BOUNDARY.   
  
COMBINATION OF THE STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND SURFACE VORTICITY  
RESULTS IN THE UNIQUE ENVIRONMENT WHERE DEVELOPING/DEEPENING  
UPDRAFTS COULD PRODUCE IN BRIEF LANDSPOUTS. LIMITED AND BRIEF NATURE  
OF THIS THREAT PRECLUDES WATCH ISSUANCE.  
  
..MOSIER/GRAMS.. 05/06/2021  
   
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT  
  
 
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BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED  
TORNADO WARNING  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL  
217 PM CDT THU MAY 6 2021  
  
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LINCOLN HAS ISSUED A  
  
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...  
  SOUTHEASTERN CHRISTIAN COUNTY IN CENTRAL ILLINOIS...  
  SOUTHWESTERN SHELBY COUNTY IN CENTRAL ILLINOIS...  
  
* UNTIL 245 PM CDT.  
  
* AT 216 PM CDT, A CONFIRMED TORNADO WAS LOCATED OVER PANA, OR 12  
  MILES EAST OF NOKOMIS, MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 25 MPH.  
  
  HAZARD...TORNADO.  
  
  SOURCE...WEATHER SPOTTERS CONFIRMED TORNADO.  
  
  IMPACT...EXPECT DAMAGE TO MOBILE HOMES, ROOFS, AND VEHICLES.  
  
* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...  
  TOWER HILL AROUND 220 PM CDT.  
  COWDEN AROUND 245 PM CDT.  
  
OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THIS TORNADIC THUNDERSTORM INCLUDE  
HERRICK AND OCONEE.  
  

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Good instability and shear doesn't arrive until Tuesday, at the earliest.  Before that there just isn't good mid-level lapse rates or shear, except for the far northern plains.  Of course ECMWF and GFS disagree on the position and timing of of fronts / synoptic waves that far out, so it's impossible to tell where the action will actually be.

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:weenie::weenie::weenie:ECMWF has some supercell potential Tuesday evening for MSP into northern Wisconsin.  Wednesday the setup moves into Michigan.  Could be something if timing isn't garbage.:weenie::weenie::weenie: 

Way too early, but there isn't really anything noteworthy outside the northern plains before then. :(I'm praying the backdoor cold front on Sunday gives me some precip, but the instability looks to be pretty pathetic as typical.  

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KIND. 

Focus will then shift to a surface wave kicking out across the
Central Plains along the boundary. This will pull the boundary back
north into the forecast area Thursday night with what is likely to
be the most organized threat for convection as the surface wave
tracks through the forecast area Friday morning. Expect widespread
showers and storms with the low pressure passing through the region
late Thursday night into Friday and riding along the instability
gradient which at this point which is likely to setup over the
forecast area in the vicinity of the front. With the presence of a
stronger low level jet nosing into the region and modest BL shear
values as well...potential for robust convection to impact parts of
the forecast area remains a threat. CIPS analog guidance continues
to offer historical support in a greater threat for strong to severe
convection over parts of the region.
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Eyeing Thursday night

KIND



Models then show a low forming over the central plains that will
then move into the area Thursday. Rain could begin as soon as midday
in the far western portion of the forecast area, but better chances
look to be for the evening to overnight hours. This system seems to
be a better organized event with a threat for severe weather
included as the low passes through the area Thursday night into
Friday. The low level jet will likely set up aloft and ample CAPE
(in excess of 1000 J/kg) is also expected.
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Out chasing in the Plains, caught the large tornado as it moved into Selden, KS yesterday. Got some pretty amazing video as it started to hit town, you can make out power flashes as it gets to the edge of town in my video here 

 

was def by far the best chasing experience I’ve ever had 

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24 minutes ago, NEILwxbo said:

Out chasing in the Plains, caught the large tornado as it moved into Selden, KS yesterday. Got some pretty amazing video as it started to hit town, you can make out power flashes as it gets to the edge of town in my video here 

 

was def by far the best chasing experience I’ve ever had 

It never ceases to amaze me the idiots that drive right into the tornado. Smh

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15 minutes ago, Malacka11 said:

I'm entertaining the thought of going downstate to chase but I really don't know if Thursday's severe potential is worth driving all the way from Aurora for.

You could wait for severe weather to visit northern Illinois, which should be no later than, oh, June 2025.

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8 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

You could wait for severe weather to visit northern Illinois, which should be no later than, oh, June 2025.

I'll take that as a "yes, do it". That's exactly what I'm worried about myself, I really don't feel like waiting all season long for something to pop up locally. 

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6 minutes ago, StormfanaticInd said:

Wow

People still don't understand what a tornado looks like when the condensation funnel isn't on the ground. :(

Edit:  Oops.  Even the funnel is all the way to the ground and debris is obvious, yet some people still don't stop.  :blink:

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