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MN Transplant

February 10-12, 2021 Winter Event

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9 minutes ago, Ji said:

i dont want to hit climo....we should be way above it. We have had a -AO/-NAO for 2 months in  a row

Given the pattern I think you have a very good chance to hit and exceed 30” this year. 

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3 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

11"...but still, not that bad.  Probably 40-45% of normal to date.  Hopefully 17" by Saturday...

Oh crud! For some reason I thought you said 17” a few days back, my apologies!

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5 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I guess you missed that day in school but 2 days is not the same as 6 days. The number 4 would like a word with you. 

I said 5 or 6. It’s still 3.8 inches over 5 days. Yippie. Sorry for being off by one. Tough crowd here. Sheesh. 

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2 minutes ago, jayyy said:

Oh crud! For some reason I thought you said 17” a few days back, my apologies!

And I dorked up those percentages.  I was typing % of seasonal total normal to date.  Probably 75-80% of normal by this date.  

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16 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Given the pattern I think you have a very good chance to hit and exceed 30” this year. 

I'll take the under on that at best Leesburg is at 14" this year and that's being generous with measurements. I say when all is said and done Leesburg finishes with 24" which to me is a fine year, right on climo but I'm sure will be a great disappointment for some.

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19 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Given the pattern I think you have a very good chance to hit and exceed 30” this year. 

Northern Delaware included I hope. HM seems annoyed  by models today and folks complaining.  I am watching that TPV out West. Strange changes today overall.  

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43 minutes ago, ovechkin said:

1/25- 0.3

1/31- 2.3

2/1-0.2

2/2-0.7

2/6-0.3

Sure, 3.2 was from one storm, I will grant you that, but it was over 2 full days. 

My bad, I thought you were talking about model output for THESE upcoming waves

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7 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said:

I'll take the under on that at best Leesburg is at 14" this year and that's being generous with measurements. I say when all is said and done Leesburg finishes with 24" which to me is a fine year, right on climo but I'm sure will be a great disappointment for some.

I am not sure that is being generous with measurements. I measured, 3.5" in Dec, 7.5" in January, and 3" last week. Right in line with 14"-15" in downtown Leesburg. I do think we go north of 25" this year with the goal of 30"

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2 minutes ago, LeesburgWx said:

I am not sure that is being generous with measurements. I measured, 3.5" in Dec, 7.5" in January, and 3" last week. Right in line with 14"-15" in downtown Leesburg. I do think we go north of 25" this year with the goal of 30"

trust me, i'm pulling for you :) we got 29-30" in 2018-19 and if we do that again in 2020-2021 then two out of 3 years around 30" and yet some still complain excessively.

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8 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said:

I'll take the under on that at best Leesburg is at 14" this year and that's being generous with measurements. I say when all is said and done Leesburg finishes with 24" which to me is a fine year, right on climo but I'm sure will be a great disappointment for some.

You guys got unlucky with dryslots so far this year. You could easily end up getting the bands with the next couple events though. It has been pure luck out here so far this year. 

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@high risk something to keep in mind as this gets inside 30 hours or so....the NAM won that fight with all other guidance yesterday regarding the wave today to our north.  Everything else that showed a nice snow event in central PA into N NJ and NYC area busted and the NAM was right taking that north. 

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Just now, psuhoffman said:

I'm not even part of "all" anymore.  sad sad day lol 

why would you be? we all know you'll get at least 6" 

share the wealth

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Euro by far the coldest it seems of all models.  Very little ice in va.

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Just now, NorthArlington101 said:

Tough to draw the line but I'd call all of this "wave one."

1613077200-4szsZuOM0Ec.png

Yikes, thats awful north of Reagan Natl

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Euro's pretty darn dry for both waves.  Everyone north of EZF lost 0.2-0.4" of QPF from 0z.  

 

eta...it's not so much that it's "south", its just weaker with both waves and has a little more arctic air push, particularly for wave 2. Wave 1 is just weak sauce.  Quite a change even from 0z.  

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Just now, WxUSAF said:

Euro's pretty darn dry for both waves.  Everyone north of EZF lost 0.2-0.4" of QPF from 0z.  

Yep, NAM and Euro dry...doesnt that seem to be a good model combo lately?

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If you click through the last 5 Euro runs the trend is definitely not our friend.  Trending away from anything particularly significant even in the DC metro.  Of course I'd still take a 1-3 type event but it would be nice if this trend stopped now. 

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May finally have a nice storm in MBY.... Northern Neck of VA   been since 2018.  Euro seems to be done by Friday morning...

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