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MAG5035

Central PA - Winter 2020/2021 Part 2

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Thermal gradient could argue for that closer surface low track ala the NAM.. which has the low into the southern Delmarva vs the GFS/EURO staying notably off the coast. Not like we're stuffing this system down with a significant arctic air intrusion that can push the baroclinic zone offshore.  (actual cold air comes in behind this sytem).  DC's coming off a day where it's 50ish tomorrow and temps during the event aren't overly cold even in the LSV.

Ugh, this system just had to suck me back in lol. 

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I am back to post another comment about the murder-suicide in Plains Township.  Much to my surprise, the popular UK news website the Daily Mail has a second article about it today.  I see that yesterday's article got almost 3,000 comments.  I guess this story struck a nerve.  I won't include any quotes today; those of you who are interested can go to the linked articles yourself and those who are not don't want to read more about it.

Yesterday's article at the Daily Mail:

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9223991/Couple-killed-row-shoveling-dumping-snow-neighbors-yard.html

 

Today's article at the Daily Mail:

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9228805/Pennsylvania-couple-shot-dead-neighbor-snow-argument.html

 

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12 minutes ago, paweather said:

NWS zone is 1-3" right now. But I would expect if 0z holds we could be in a WAA WSW tonight or tomorrow morning.

Border MD counties have a WSW so I agree we should as well.

 

 

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10 minutes ago, paweather said:

Gosh GFS brings rain into the LSV. And MAG you look good on there in fact all of PA gets snow even 2001K. 

:thumbsup:

Nice band of wind driven snow rolling through now.

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29 minutes ago, canderson said:

Do you have a rescheduled flight? That's when we know we'll all get hammered with snow. 

No. There has been a change of plans and I will stay local. I do start the new job...yup...on Sunday, so this is why the snow is coming...lol.

Basically, after the flight cancelled, I had 3 more big bills to pay this week and it scared me enough to re-think the road. I'd have run out of money before I'd have gotten home, especially since a lot of truckstops are pay to park now at $15 to $20 per night. Add to that the fact that I couldn't even take all of my warm bedding and winter gear without adding $90 to the baggage fee, and I was kind of backed up to a wall.

I'm happy though. I do prefer being home daily, but most companies insurances weren't allowing me to come on board because of the bus driving. My water hauling former employer could and did.

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Weather Nation was using the Baron model for snow accumulation for Sunday's storm. And it gave us a lot of snow.

Has anyone used that model?

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11 minutes ago, pawatch said:

Weather Nation was using the Baron model for snow accumulation for Sunday's storm. And it gave us a lot of snow.

Has anyone used that model?

What is the Boron model?

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1 hour ago, Itstrainingtime said:

CTP has 4" for LNS for the expected accumulation for Sunday. It has 4" for LNS for the high end amount (10%) chance. I don't know if I've ever seen the expected amount be exactly the same as the high end amount...

StormTotalSnowWeb.png

Don’t worry, it will change 10 times between now & Sunday morning!

 

 

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3 hours ago, paweather said:

Gosh GFS brings rain into the LSV. And MAG you look good on there in fact all of PA gets snow even 2001K. 

18z GFS looked just fine to me with a widespread 3 to 5 inches of snow for many in CTP on Sunday.

F4A82B5A-00E1-41B9-84E3-96259C0A5EBC.png

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32 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

Don’t worry, it will change 10 times between now & Sunday morning!

 

 

I’ve learned to not take those seriously until literal flakes are flying, they seem to change constantly.

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15 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said:

Did you guys lose much of your snowpack there with the warmer temps?

It took an absolute beating today. Sounded like it was raining with roof runoff. 

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2 minutes ago, canderson said:

It took an absolute beating today. Sounded like it was raining with roof runoff. 

Yuck. We were in the 40s with sunshine up here too. The snowpack definitely took a hit, but I'm guessing still a foot plus?

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Just now, Blizzard of 93 said:

Yes, but we are getting it back on Sunday & next week!

What is the threat next week? I don’t see much past Sunday, maybe next weekend I think?

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How much would you say most of the Susquehanna Valley has left?

I'll probably be joining you guys the week of Feb. 15th as I hopefully (tentative of course) get to visit the family in Danville.

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6 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said:

How much would you say most of the Susquehanna Valley has left?

I'll probably be joining you guys the week of Feb. 15th as I hopefully (tentative of course) get to visit the family in Danville.

In lycoming county we have about 11 or 12 still on ground

 

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The 3k NAM has the low nice and tucked in just off of the coast of OCMD. It brings the heavier band of snow into the LSV. This run ups the ante to make this more of a 4 to 7 inch event for most of the Susquehanna Valley.

2471B132-4D84-4637-86DD-95ACCF3FAD42.png

EF08EB96-D29F-45BB-B1F9-D492C4DE8D06.png

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4 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

The 3k NAM has the low nice and tucked in just off of the coast of OCMD. It brings the heavier band of snow into the LSV. This run ups the ante to make this more of a 4 to 7 inch event for most of the Susquehanna Valley.

2471B132-4D84-4637-86DD-95ACCF3FAD42.png

EF08EB96-D29F-45BB-B1F9-D492C4DE8D06.png

Yep Nam is on target. Thanks Blizz.

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