WinterWxLuvr

Feb Long Range Discussion (Day 3 and beyond) - MERGED

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3 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

Keep coming baby

 

1 minute ago, jayyy said:

NAM led the way with the last storm - no reason to believe it isn’t doing the same here. Just a little weary of being 72+ hours out and it not quite being in the NAM’s wheelhouse yet. Encouraging trends today all around. 
 

Hug the NAM and NAVGAP and pray!

There is a separate thread for Sunday

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5 minutes ago, mappy said:

 

There is a separate thread for Sunday

Sorry mappy! Just refreshed my browser at work for the latest. Didn’t notice. My apologies. 

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18 minutes ago, feloniousq said:

A 6.6 inch difference between JYO and IAD is pretty nuts.  That's about 2 miles per inch.

I live a mile from JYO and feel confident in a seasonal total between 10"-11"

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Just now, jayyy said:

Sorry mappy! Just refreshed my browser at work for the latest. Didn’t notice. My apologies. 

its okay :) 

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21 minutes ago, WVclimo said:

Its rare for my location to see more than double the snowfall that IAD receives.  So I expect that difference to narrow as we go forward.

I feel pretty good with my measuring lol. I've measured 26" and that looks spot on with that map. :sled:

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1 hour ago, WxUSAF said:

 

With a fast moving storm and a pretty mediocre stale airmass ahead, this is totally thread the needle. And I doubt we’re done with the NW trend. 

That’s the spirit

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10 hours ago, Weather Will said:

WB 0Z EPS Control for 14th.  

769EF161-C8E4-4BF2-940A-39DE97C68B8D.png

1C867AF8-9393-4592-8CA6-8A1CCE8EE7B5.png

I hate when I'm bullseyed this far out.  What this map really means for me is 33 and rain due to the northward movement trends of systems the past several years

 

 

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28 minutes ago, yoda said:

Just a tad chilly Sunday morning on V-DAY

376215625_itsabitcoldon12zEUROat240lol.thumb.png.518120966f58b368ce61258d6a3da0e7.png

I’ll give you 20 degrees and bet you a beer that you’re still above that.

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22 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

This...the Arctic cold scenario greatly reduces our chances of a big snowstorm. 

I’d like to see a good snow followed by the Day after Tomorrow

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7 minutes ago, RIC_WX said:

I live a mile from JYO and feel confident in a seasonal total between 10"-11"

Correct approximately 4" first storm and around 6.5" with this one. Someone reported 8" around leesburg and someone in Round Hill reported over 10" color me skeptical 

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5 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

I’d like to see a good snow followed by the Day after Tomorrow

The late next week threat is our first chance for an actually cold snowstorm.  If we have high temps in the low to mid 20s it doesn't even take much to make me happy.  

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16 minutes ago, Chris78 said:

I feel pretty good with my measuring lol. I've measured 26" and that looks spot on with that map. :sled:

You probably average a bit more than here with your better latitude and elevation, but 26" is seasonal climo for my area.  That's a nice spot to be in with most of February and all of March still ahead of us.

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Correct approximately 4" first storm and around 6.5" with this one. Someone reported 8" around leesburg and someone in Round Hill reported over 10" color me skeptical 
Yep we got about 11.5
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On 2/3/2021 at 7:39 AM, frd said:

What in the world made accu weather jump the gun forecasting , even though two options were presented, that a huge snowstorm would hit the East Coast ? 

It never was even close .

 

Accu weather really sucks.  Blah Blah Blah. Both their options from several days ago are in play.  Huge...probably not.  Nice storm maybe.

Cutting up Accu Weather or the Nws...does not earn respect.  Cutting up Dt...maybe.

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19 minutes ago, blue sky said:

Accu weather really sucks.  Blah Blah Blah. Both their options from several days ago are in play.  Huge...probably not.  Nice storm maybe.

Cutting up Accu Weather or the Nws...does not earn respect.  Cutting up Dt...maybe.

Too  bad, I disagree with you. 

Did I say AccuWeather sucks ? No , I did not.

So kindly don't make up s***.

 

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10 minutes ago, frd said:

Too  bad, I disagree with you. 

Did I say AccuWeather sucks ? No , I did not.

So kindly don't make up s***.

 

You said...It was never even close.  Not a compliment.

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7 hours ago, chris21 said:

I know this has been hashed and rehashed but the long term avg at DCA is not really representative of even downtown though. NW DC is prob closer to 20. For instance, in this past storm I measured 5.5 inches while DCA measured 3.2. In 2016, there was a uniform 23-26 inches in NW, while DCA recorded 16. 

This. I have no idea how the heck they measure. I did a video of that storm, had just a shade under 24" in SE.

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13-14 plus -NAO there. Got to keep that SE ridge/WAR or else it’s cold and dry. But verbatim that’s fun stuff.

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Just now, WxUSAF said:

13-14 plus -NAO there. Got to keep that SE ridge/WAR or else it’s cold and dry. But verbatim that’s fun stuff.

Yeah there is some moisture available ahead of the Arctic press. I know some here live in fear of cold and dry but not me. I will take my chances. Love the idea of a moderate cold powder event followed by some Siberian cold. Been awhile. Chasing a KU in the MA in a Nina is pretty low probability, and it may still happen beyond this as things relax up top.

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18z Gfs might have a big overrunning event this run. We’re going to see different placement each run of the TPV near the conus border. Where it sets up & how much breaks off on the day 6 wave will dictate what happens toward day 8-11

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Just now, CAPE said:

Yeah there is some moisture available ahead of the Arctic press. I know some here live in fear of cold and dry but not me. I will take my chances. Love the idea of a moderate cold powder event followed by some Siberian cold. Been awhile. Chasing a KU in the MA in a Nina is pretty low probability, and it may still happen beyond this as things relax up top.

It would be nice to get a solid or better event that's cold powder, followed by some real cold to keep it around for awhile.  But what I wouldn't want is very cold with nothing but bare, frozen ground.  Not expecting a KU...but a nice overrunning type event falling into an Arctic push would be cool.

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Just now, Always in Zugzwang said:

It would be nice to get a solid or better event that's cold powder, followed by some real cold to keep it around for awhile.  But what I wouldn't want is very cold with nothing but bare, frozen ground.  Not expecting a KU...but a nice overrunning type event falling into an Arctic push would be cool.

This is a possible outcome with the sort of h5 look being advertised. I would sign up for that.

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1 minute ago, Wentzadelphia said:

Gfs crush job next week, wow what a run.

0DAD1234-EFBF-4F04-9B16-D5B3315DEF1E.png

Well, you and PSU (and some others) kind of highlighted that time period, and it has been showing up for a bit in various forms...so credit where credit is due if we score!

Oh, and your phone needs a good charge again, LOL!!!

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4 minutes ago, CAPE said:

This is a possible outcome with the sort of h5 look being advertised. I would sign up for that.

The only caveat is if the tpv end up too far west then it runs inland, but I think the day 6 wave helps push the boundary east.

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