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WxUSAF

January Storm Term Threat Discussions (Day 3 - Day 7)

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14 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

Too much analysis of a single ensemble control run, guys.

I agree.  6z EPS mean is farther north than 0z, but it's a pretty small bump for 5-6 days out.  

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10 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

Too much analysis of a single ensemble control run, guys.

 

9 minutes ago, Ajb said:

Why is there any reason to look at the control 

 

6 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said:

Control just a short 7 hours ago....someone on here said it was straight filth

Just because it’s just one control run and unlikely to be the final solution also doesn’t mean we should misrepresent/sugarcoat it. It was a BAD run. That’s it. I was pointing that out because I thought it was misrepresented a little and most can’t see it for themselves. 
 

Furthermore no one complains when there are 20 posts breaking down every part of a run that gives us 20” but gets pissy when I do the same with a run that screws us over. Both runs are equally likely and I analyze them exactly the same. 

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1 minute ago, WxUSAF said:

I agree.  6z EPS mean is farther north than 0z, but it's a pretty small bump for 5-6 days out.  

This is the most important take. The eps was north but not nearly as bad at that control run. 

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Sure, but why the control as opposed to p587 or whatever? They have equal weight, right?  Not being pissy; honestly trying to understand. 

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1 minute ago, Ajb said:

Sure, but why the control as opposed to p587 or whatever? They have equal weight, right?  Not being pissy; honestly trying to understand. 

Honestly because it was commented on but I felt was misrepresented. Otherwise I wasn’t going to bring it up.  But the control is unperturbed and typically is very close to the operational at that range so absent an op run at 6z the control is the next best hint at what the euro thinks. More so then one of the perturbed members. That said it’s lower resolution so it won’t handle thermals as well...and the euro op was running slightly colder the last few runs so there is that.  I’m not trying to be a deb I was just correcting what that specific run showed.

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ICON is a nice hit for most of MD...looks like us closer to DC never go below 0c at 850.

 

Edit to add: Northern MD and Pa.

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1 hour ago, psuhoffman said:

I love your optimism but let’s be real since most can’t see the run. The 6z euro control would be a complete and utter disaster and lead to a forum meltdown. It’s all rain for anyone south of a Baltimore to leesburgh line and even up here it’s only a few inches changing to ice/rain.  The entire DC area gets no snow...again. 

 

1028-050.gif

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Just now, clskinsfan said:

Where are you seeing it past 120? I didnt know another site had it. 

Weatherbell updates pretty quickly 

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Yeah. ICON favors areas north of the cities mos.  This this range, I'll totally take it, especially given the trend of systems trending more suppressed as we get closer to game time. Also, give me a block, prime climo,  and cold nearby. That's my attitude toward the coming week. 

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13 minutes ago, LP08 said:

ICON is a nice hit for most of MD...looks like us closer to DC never go below 0c at 850.

 

Edit to add: Northern MD and Pa.

 

5 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

Where are you seeing it past 120? I didnt know another site had it. 

75971342-36E2-481A-BAD7-F8A491F03DDE.thumb.png.555c20c83b6b1a6d75270503729f2868.png

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Icon is mostly rain S of the MD line and mostly snow north of it.

135 hrs  has a continuous stripe of snow from the KS/CO line to the Jersey shore.

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5 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

 

75971342-36E2-481A-BAD7-F8A491F03DDE.thumb.png.555c20c83b6b1a6d75270503729f2868.png

 

2 minutes ago, Amped said:

Icon is mostly rain S of the MD line and mostly snow north of it.

135 hrs  has a continuous stripe of snow from the KS/CO line to the Jersey shore.

hmm....

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1 minute ago, MD Snow said:

 

hmm....

We all know who the posters are that skew everything one way and those that skew the other.   I tend to frustrate both. That’s a good thing Imo. B)

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24 minutes ago, LP08 said:

ICON is a nice hit for most of MD...looks like us closer to DC never go below 0c at 850.

 

Edit to add: Northern MD and Pa.

oh good. i can be hopeful now that the Icon is on board

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33 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Honestly because it was commented on but I felt was misrepresented. Otherwise I wasn’t going to bring it up.  But the control is unperturbed and typically is very close to the operational at that range so absent an op run at 6z the control is the next best hint at what the euro thinks. More so then one of the perturbed members. That said it’s lower resolution so it won’t handle thermals as well...and the euro op was running slightly colder the last few runs so there is that.  I’m not trying to be a deb I was just correcting what that specific run showed.

Thanx for the response. Maybe this belongs somewhere else,  but I’m curious the extent to which the next op follows the control. I guess this goes to the implicit probability distribution over the ensemble numbers (with some large unknown weight on “other” I suppose). Assuming the initial conditions update between runs, is there a physics/ingestion reason for the updated initial conditions to be closer to the control than any other perturbed member?

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Just now, stormtracker said:

GFS looks a bit more amp'd than 6z so far.

drink!

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Just now, stormtracker said:

GFS looks a bit more amp'd than 6z so far.

Indeed.  Not crazy but a bit more poppin’

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1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

GFS looks a bit more amp'd than 6z so far.

But increased heights further north, yes?

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