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58 minutes ago, RogueWaves said:

Somehow, COVID's managed to kick Pneumonia to the curb..

 

Pneumonia death rate by year.PNG

I’m pretty sure this is a fake chart.  Here is a screenshot from cdc.gov with the total pneumonia and influenza deaths 

10695D70-B765-459D-A8AB-FAE5DA6FDA08.png

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The Illinois Department of Public Health announced Saturday there are 899 new cases of coronavirus disease (COVID-19) in Illinois, including 31 additional deaths.

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3 hours ago, Baum said:

Alot more discussion on the after affects and the economy today which is interesting. I saw this as a retweet on twitter, and I'll assume it is accurate which would be a positive:

The @IHME_UW model vs reality for New York State, April 5. The model is less accurate than ever. 69K beds projected, 16.5K actually needed; 12,346 ICU beds projected, 4376 needed. Even better (tho not for the model), overall bed count rose less than 600 statewide - less than 4%.

 

Hope it stays wrong

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One thing I am wondering about the beds in NY.  Are they turning some people away who would normally be hospitalized during a time of lower demand... or maybe some people who would normally go to the hospital are trying to ride it out at home for as long as they can?  Wouldn't entirely explain that large of a gap in projected/actual but could be a factor.  Something doesn't make sense because they are still having hundreds of deaths per day in NY, generally in line with the model projection.  How could the bed numbers be so far off but the deaths not? 

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26 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

One thing I am wondering about the beds in NY.  Are they turning some people away who would normally be hospitalized during a time of lower demand... or maybe some people who would normally go to the hospital are trying to ride it out at home for as long as they can?  Wouldn't entirely explain that large of a gap in projected/actual but could be a factor.  Something doesn't make sense because they are still having hundreds of deaths per day in NY, generally in line with the model projection.  How could the bed numbers be so far off but the deaths not? 

https://www.westernjournal.com/cdc-tells-hospitals-list-covid-cause-death-even-just-assuming-contributed/

 

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43 minutes ago, buckeye said:

I know Indiana is waiting for a positive covid test before listing that as cause of death. 

I have seen a weird argument being floated around that if somebody has covid-19 along with underlying conditions, then covid-19 wasn't really the thing that killed them and the death shouldn't be classified as such.  Once somebody tests positive, I have no problem with that being listed as cause of death (unless they were hit by a car or something), even if they have a bunch of underlying conditions that played a role.  You can live for years or even decades with some underlying conditions with covid-19 being the thing to push you over the edge.   

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@Hoosier

WaPo had an article about this just today

https://www.washingtonpost.com/investigations/coronavirus-death-toll-americans-are-almost-certainly-dying-of-covid-19-but-being-left-out-of-the-official-count/2020/04/05/71d67982-747e-11ea-87da-77a8136c1a6d_story.html

Quote

Coronavirus death toll: Americans are almost certainly dying of covid-19 but being left out of the official count

 

59AA61F2-0EBD-4D79-A32D-E8F27CFDEC29.thumb.jpeg.96f9d633bc52cdc5e299096e6811b303.jpeg

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What a world. We debate how someone should be classified in death, and just point fingers as to who's to blame versus pulling together and hoping this ends sooner rather than later and with less pain and sorrow for our fellow people. We really need a lot of folks to reexamine what's important starting with turning off your local and national news media outlets, and twitter pundits and focus on friends,family, and community. Bottom line, whether it's the virus itself or the residual damage we are all in for a very tough time. Time to take stock of what's important.

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2 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

British pm has been sick with the virus for a week and a half and now admitted to the hospital for "tests."  What are they testing for at this point?

https://mobile.reuters.com/article/amp/idUSKBN21N0VI

He was on the news yesterday.  He wasn't coughing much but he seemed kind of haggard.

Hoping for the best for him.

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44 minutes ago, Baum said:

What a world. We debate how someone should be classified in death

I mean, its not just something that only became relevant for the ‘rona, mortality and injury data is also fundamental to public health policy nationally and internationally, for doing demographic and actuarial research, for IDing patterns of domestic abuse & child abuse, for understanding social inequality, for workplace safety & health, to understand emerging health concerns, and so on. my wife tells me its also not so simple to do a good job assessing a cause of death & that its an art and a science worth studying

 

edit also, sad to say, its important to law enforcement generally and also for tracking elder abuse

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10 minutes ago, sokolow said:

I mean, its not just something that only became relevant for the ‘rona, mortality and injury data is also fundamental to public health policy nationally and internationally, for doing demographic and actuarial research, for IDing patterns of domestic abuse & child abuse, for understanding social inequality, for workplace safety & health, to understand emerging health concerns, and so on. my wife tells me its also not so simple to do a good job assessing a cause of death & that its an art and a science worth studying

I was referring more to the fact it's being politicized. I have no doubt there is a lot that goes into it on a professional level.

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47 minutes ago, Baum said:

What a world. We debate how someone should be classified in death, and just point fingers as to who's to blame versus pulling together and hoping this ends sooner rather than later and with less pain and sorrow for our fellow people. We really need a lot of folks to reexamine what's important starting with turning off your local and national news media outlets, and twitter pundits and focus on friends,family, and community. Bottom line, whether it's the virus itself or the residual damage we are all in for a very tough time. Time to take stock of what's important.

Damn... I thought this would at least get a weenie from Alek. Back to watching Ozark.

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Church around here held service today and got busted

https://www.nwitimes.com/news/local/crime-and-courts/police-ticket-church-leaders-after-they-refuse-to-disperse-sunday-service-of-more-than-30/article_9d26619f-955b-5a69-b87b-f47d01effb38.html#tracking-source=home-trending

I imagine there will be more of this next weekend.  Would not be surprised to see a bit of a spike in cases later this month, tied back to gatherings on the religious holidays. 

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1 hour ago, Baum said:

I was referring more to the fact it's being politicized. I have no doubt there is a lot that goes into it on a professional level.

It’s been political since the industrial revolution, or for a more specific starting point since the radium girls and since  SoL Frances Perkins hulked out hardcore about silicosis in wake of the protracted horror of the Gauley Bridge miner’s disaster. Because in many cases it invokes a proper regulatory question.  I suppose the best way to look at it is, “it is automatically political, how can we make it productively political”

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This thread has gotten a bit to dark. I'll pop back in around the 15th of April to check in on the stats. 

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2 hours ago, Hoosier said:

Church around here held service today and got busted

https://www.nwitimes.com/news/local/crime-and-courts/police-ticket-church-leaders-after-they-refuse-to-disperse-sunday-service-of-more-than-30/article_9d26619f-955b-5a69-b87b-f47d01effb38.html#tracking-source=home-trending

I imagine there will be more of this next weekend.  Would not be surprised to see a bit of a spike in cases later this month, tied back to gatherings on the religious holidays. 

The church leadership wants that donation money BIG TIME.

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2 hours ago, Hoosier said:

Church around here held service today and got busted

https://www.nwitimes.com/news/local/crime-and-courts/police-ticket-church-leaders-after-they-refuse-to-disperse-sunday-service-of-more-than-30/article_9d26619f-955b-5a69-b87b-f47d01effb38.html#tracking-source=home-trending

I imagine there will be more of this next weekend.  Would not be surprised to see a bit of a spike in cases later this month, tied back to gatherings on the religious holidays. 

Very sad to hear of this practice and theology.  Our church has followed the governor's orders and halted public worship.  We communicate with e mail including my sermons each week since we do not have live streaming and a fairly elderly congregation.  We are United Methodist, and John Wesley's three simple rules were,  First, do no harm.  Do good, And stay in love with God.  You can't be a witness when you are harming your neighbors by exposing them to a potentially deadly virus.

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14 minutes ago, Indystorm said:

Very sad to hear of this practice and theology.  Our church has followed the governor's orders and halted public worship.  We communicate with e mail including my sermons each week since we do not have live streaming and a fairly elderly congregation.  We are United Methodist, and John Wesley's three simple rules were,  First, do no harm.  Do good, And stay in love with God.  You can't be a witness when you are harming your neighbors by exposing them to a potentially deadly virus.

 Good job, sir.  

You'd probably know better than me but I think Holcomb's order carved out an exemption for places of worship, provided they adhere to the recommended crowd/social distance guidelines.  Of course that would be difficult for most places to accomplish unless the congregation is very, very small.

 

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9 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

 Good job, sir.  

You'd probably know better than me but I think Holcomb's order carved out an exemption for places of worship, provided they adhere to the recommended crowd/social distance guidelines.  Of course that would be difficult for most places to accomplish unless the congregation is very, very small.  

 

I think the guidelines are ten or less.  We have even dispensed with board meetings for this period.  I have a varied background.  My major on my bachelor's degree from I.U. decades ago was public health education with a minor in earth science, and I eventually got training in theology and became a minister.  Go figure.

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Zero care for human life virus with this, Admin.   Y'all can debate all ya want.   Wake up. Resist the Red with blood on their hands.   

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4 hours ago, Baum said:

Damn... I thought this would at least get a weenie from Alek. Back to watching Ozark.

Alek has giving up on us.   Congrats.  Trump 2020..   Sham Country.  RIP,  Wisc if we don't stop the April 7th vote.      

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Well, the IHME model updated.  There is good news and bad news.  The good news is that it dropped the total US deaths to a bit over 80k (was like 93k on previous update).  The bad news is that the peak day is really ugly.  But more *potentially* good news... notice that enormous range on peak day.  Maybe things break favorably.  

Screenshot_20200405-231118.thumb.png.a2774427ef7077c3a633ebca3c777cb6.png

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wonder when the collective realization that this will never end is gonna hit people?

 

 

 

 

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8 hours ago, Hoosier said:

Well, the IHME model updated.  There is good news and bad news.  The good news is that it dropped the total US deaths to a bit over 80k (was like 93k on previous update).  The bad news is that the peak day is really ugly.  But more *potentially* good news... notice that enormous range on peak day.  Maybe things break favorably.  

Screenshot_20200405-231118.thumb.png.a2774427ef7077c3a633ebca3c777cb6.png

Well at least we are close to the peak. Looks like things will get much better very soon, maybe even by late April.

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My two cents here, but they need to really ramp up mask production and require it for going out in public. Then May 1st we re-open everything with better PPE for ALL Americans.  The social distancing measures seem like they have done well, but we cannot keep our economy shut down past this month or the cure is going to be worse than the virus.  I don't think people realize we're going to be in a legitimate economic depression when this is over, but how long is lasts is going to be the difference.

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4 minutes ago, snowstormcanuck said:

Not that it's a walk in a rose garden now, but it looks like the worst is over for Italy.

Yep. And arent we like a week or two vehund Italy ? If so the worst should be over for us soon.

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