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Holston_River_Rambler

NAM vs the Euro cage match storm, Feb 20 - 21

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Plumes for Knoxville went down .07 qpf for the mean and went back down to around 2 inch average in snow totals.

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HRRR and RAP neither give the east TN valley a boost of confidence in the current situation.  Here's hoping for the best, but I'm prepared for the worst.  

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We may have received the kiss of death when Jeff got fully on board earlier.  The forum area seems to do much better with “pessimistic Jeff”. Haha!

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HRRR and RAP neither give the east TN valley a boost of confidence in the current situation.  Here's hoping for the best, but I'm prepared for the worst.  

Welcome back!!! Well....welcome to the new forum. Missed your posts on the other one.

 

 

 

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I hope we can thread the needle and get a true near forum wide slider.  It's a sad world when we get a weak gulf low with overrunning and a 1045+ HP in Iowa and it's not a slam dunk in February. 

That said, surely QPF won't be an issue. We've constantly out performed short range modeling on QPF for the last several months.  Including the first system this week missing by an average of .25-.30 to low imby with that one. 

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I was feeling hopeful when I dropped to 39 by 8 p.m. here in the foothills, but since then, I've risen to 41.  So, having experienced winter weather here since 2003, I know how fickle it can be in the east TN valley. I've got my fingers crossed, but I'm getting older, and I can't keep them that way forever.  When I roll out of bed in the morning, I'm prepared to see rain falling at 35.  :raining:

It's all good.   I'm used to it. 

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Who’s gonna post some OBS overnight? Links for relevant satellites/temps/etc?

 

best of luck everyone!

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The 4z RAP, which is a pretty good model under 8-10 hours with some events, is starting to really key on West Tennessee out in its later range. It appears to be dropping heavy snow under its heavy returns but rain all around it. 

Creeping down here. DP has shot up. Wet bulb is holding around 32. 

Screenshot_20200220-002201_Chrome.jpg

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Have been studying weather for a hair over 25yrs and this is one of the reasons that makes E. TN so hard to forecast. For whatever reason (topography/angle of dry advection/etc), a small bubble of moisture has been trapped over southern Monroe Co into Polk Co all night. We can't seem to advect the dry air SE of Hwy 411. DP has been between 35-40 all night.

20200220_003551.jpg

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18 minutes ago, TellicoWx said:

Have been studying weather for a hair over 25yrs and this is one of the reasons that makes E. TN so hard to forecast. For whatever reason (topography/angle of dry advection/etc), a small bubble of moisture has been trapped over southern Monroe Co into Polk Co all night. We can't seem to advect the dry air SE of Hwy 411. DP has been between 35-40 all night.

20200220_003551.jpg

There's so many microclimates here. I wonder if southerly flow is somehow going on there due to terrain or something?

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Not looking too good in the Chattanooga area. With that said, Gatlinburg is now under a Winter storm warning until late tonight with heavy snow expected.

 

Edit to add: The first picture is current Chattanooga observation.

 

dad7319a3902eb17c01ddfef8f1f88f0.jpg&key=e14ce91edbf5242332235bc84829625c0e501d0154123039f19089822191b80cf183b3f1b17d429a6a75eaccfcbbe82e.jpg&key=6d9695285d285b24eec9fe112d425cbc5b98bbf013140c6a3eef746d58e5e4b7

 

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MRX basically says too warm, NAM is wrong etc. Seems to feel this will bust even in areas they forecast snow. I have managed to hold steady in the mid 30s overnight. But they say even though I have 1-2 inches of snow forecast, they aren't confident my area will get enough moisture so didn't bother with a WWA because of the bust potential.

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4 minutes ago, John1122 said:

Returns starting to move overhead. Showing up as snow on radar but not reaching the ground yet.

Maybe some evaporational cooling will get the temps down enough for flakes. I think you’re in a good spot John.

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4 minutes ago, Reb said:

Maybe some evaporational cooling will get the temps down enough for flakes. I think you’re in a good spot John.

I'm at 34.9 right now. Just need the qpf, MRX mentioned that as being the issue for my area.

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Current Wetbulbs show the plateau right at 32..central/southern valley 34-36 is uniform from Knox Co south. Looks like pretty much everyone will see some flakes, not sure how much (if any) can accumulate outside plateau/mtns.

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Light rain has started here in Ooltewah. Temp dropped from 45* down to 40* in a matter of minutes. We still have a long way to go. I'm just not seeing us dropping too much more to get the conversion to all snow for any extended time. If it does snow I hope folks post pictures! I won't be able to see the light of day at work being at VW.

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