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Kmlwx

2020 Mid-Atlantic Severe Weather - General Thread

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Already a cumulus field popping over my house today. Last night produced far better than I thought it would. It was premature to call this a bust.

Today looks like a flooding and a lightning threat.

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25 minutes ago, [email protected] said:

0.41” imby Thursday on east side of Columbia. Not great, but not a total miss either.  

How did we have 1” differences?? And usually the PWS in my neighborhood runs a little low I think.

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12z 3k NAM and 13z hrrr both have nice storm complexes moving east at 20-21z which mostly fall apart when they hit the corn dust over the corridor

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My yard is soooooooo happy after last night. DC proper doesn't seem to get training like that during the summer much anymore.

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44 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

12z 3k NAM and 13z hrrr both have nice storm complexes moving east at 20-21z which mostly fall apart when they hit the corn dust over the corridor

     The HRRR Is better than you think.    It's unfortunate that Tropical Tidbits shows only 1 km HRRR reflectivity, as the model rarely shows its best signals at that level.   Pivotal Weather shows composite reflectivity, which always looks much better.  (Composite will always be "hotter" than 1 km, but for the HRRR, it's usually a more realistic representation.)      The composite reflectivity in recent runs suggests a lot of outflow interactions with potential for multiple rounds of storms well into the evening again.   

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In need of another half inch or more, pool needs water :lol:

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Some rumbles of thunder going on right now, but cell is to my south looks to miss me to my east

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oooo lots of stuff around now, surely something will hit #desperate

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4 minutes ago, mappy said:

oooo lots of stuff around now, surely something will hit #desperate

Your yard is in the slight risk area for excessive rain. Good luck!

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4 minutes ago, mappy said:

oooo lots of stuff around now, surely something will hit #desperate

If you compare the obs at Westminster to Balt. Inner Harbor and Martin State, there appears to be a weak convergence zone setting up along the I-83 corridor. Looks like jackpotville may be living up to its name today.

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1 minute ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Your yard is in the slight risk area for excessive rain. Good luck!

 

Just now, Eskimo Joe said:

If you compare the obs at Westminster to Balt. Inner Harbor and Martin State, there appears to be a weak convergence zone setting up along the I-83 corridor. Looks like jackpotville may be living up to its name today.

I dunno guys, the one that popped up to my south has been crawwwwwling east. may just clip me, hoping the rest behind it fills in and we get some rain. 

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I mean seriously, wtf 

97D9DC71-0584-45C2-91E0-95D447D50F70.png

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some rain falling now, but not very heavy. im telling ya, that edge is like across the street. i could walk to a downpour. 

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i hate this hobby

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RAIN!!!!!! GLORIOUS RAIN

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2 minutes ago, mappy said:

RAIN!!!!!! GLORIOUS RAIN

and its done. i give up. good luck yall!

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2 minutes ago, mappy said:

and its done. i give up. good luck yall!

It's just getting started.

HREF looks pretty decent for N central/ NE MD into SE PA for a bit later.

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2 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

It's just getting started.

HREF looks pretty decent for N central/ NE MD into SE PA for a bit later.

 

Just now, weatherCCB said:

You will get rain today Mappy.    

Thanks guys, I'm just pouting. Hate being missed on all sides, just need some rain lol 

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1 minute ago, mappy said:

 

Thanks guys, I'm just pouting. Hate being missed on all sides, just need some rain lol 

lol that is usually what happens here. 

Been jack-potting a lot so far, but it will surely change in a few weeks at peak sun angle and when the legit heat is on, like clockwork. There will be storms within a few miles in every direction, but bupkis in my yard.

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16 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

It's just getting started.

HREF looks pretty decent for N central/ NE MD into SE PA for a bit later.

Hrrr likes i81 corridor in Va and also SE Pa and it keeps the action going late in se Pa . Not much for central Md fwiw.

Edit...the Hrrr v4 actually looks decent for parts of central Md FWIW 

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i’m under that warmed storm—a little thunder, no wind, whiteout rains.

as it came in:

 

 

C7CEE319-4F69-4773-A7F1-67A31AC52016.jpeg

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Radar looks really good. HRRR looks pretty terrible but it wasn't great last night and is initializing with less convection than shown on radar.

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Just now, losetoa6 said:

Hrrr likes i81 corridor in Va and SE Pa and it keeps the action going late in se Pa . Not much for much of central Md fwiw.

I like using the HREF as it is an ensemble of pretty much all of the relevant meso models. 

It didn't quite work out yesterday for here as most of the members were not impressive at all for my yard, and I ended up getting PUMMELED. I find it to be a pretty useful tool overall though.

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1 minute ago, C.A.P.E. said:

I like using the HREF as it is an ensemble of pretty much all of the relevant meso models. 

It didn't quite work out yesterday for here as most of the members were not impressive at all for my yard, and I ended up getting PUMMELED. I find it to be a pretty useful tool overall though.

Can Mappy borrow your new sprinkler :lol:

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well, for now all the stuff has moved north and west of me. little downpour for a few minutes. a whopping .05 of rain LOL

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winds picked up and shifted from the south to the north with another burst of torrential rain, then things let up. now that the storm has reached the Potomac, the thunder has picked up and is echoing to back here. .79” in less than 30 minutes and it’s still raining.

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1 minute ago, losetoa6 said:

Can Mappy borrow your new sprinkler :lol:

 I ran that sucker for about 2 hours yesterday in the late afternoon on the area out back where I try to keep the grass nice. So that area had like an extra half inch of rain lol.

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