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Thundersnow12

January 22nd-25th Winter Storm Potential

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23 minutes ago, Jackstraw said:

So is the Hi-Res GFS and the GEFS not the upgraded version?

GEFS isn't upgraded. I don't know what the Hi-Res GFS is, but I am going to assume that is just a different name of the current GFS.

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I remember reading an IWX AFD earlier in the week that having such a stacked cutoff low like this in January is fairly rare, thereby cutting off any cold air intrusion from the polar jet.  I'm pretty sure no matter what time of year, models tend to struggle at times with cutoff's.  Maybe that's why there's been inconsistency right up to and during this event aside from slim +/- freezing level surface temps being so tight.  My weenie ass is used to warm 850's nosing in but this whole system seems upside down with plenty of sub freezing air aloft but surface levels being stubborn.  Seems to me this an early fall early spring type of scenario as opposed to middle of winter.  Still hoping for a reach around lol  :weenie:

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1 hour ago, Hoosier said:

Yeah, getting to be a little much.  I'm gonna actually have to moderate if it keeps up. 

 

1 hour ago, Stebo said:

GFS "upgrade" has really destroyed a half way decent model.  It is almost to the point of being useless.

Hasn’t that been the case ever since the upgrade?  Garbage in garbage out?

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3 minutes ago, Jackstraw said:

I remember reading an IWX AFD earlier in the week that having such a stacked cutoff low like this in January is fairly rare, thereby cutting off any cold air intrusion from the polar jet.  I'm pretty sure no matter what time of year, models tend to struggle at times with cutoff's.  Maybe that's why there's been inconsistency right up to and during this event aside from slim +/- freezing level surface temps being so tight.  My weenie ass is used to warm 850's nosing in but this whole system seems upside down with plenty of sub freezing air aloft but surface levels being stubborn.  Seems to me this an early fall early spring type of scenario as opposed to middle of winter.  Still hoping for a reach around lol  :weenie:

And we're hoping for some sloppy seconds from tonight's wave :lol:

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Looking at the new DVN RAOB makes it pretty surprising that it's still 80/20 rain/snow here.  Only an extremely shallow layer of above freezing air at the surface.  Even light precip should be enough to quickly flip this over to all snow.  Grrr

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2 minutes ago, DaveNay said:

Was just outside doing chores and there was a distinct lack of any precipitation despite the radar returns.

That’s insane. Pouring fatties here, roads whitening up now 

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5 minutes ago, SchaumburgStormer said:

That’s insane. Pouring fatties here, roads whitening up now 

Five miles makes the difference?

(It's snowing now though)

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2 minutes ago, DaveNay said:

Five miles makes the difference?

(It's snowing now though)

I’m sure of that right about now. Back to some drizzle here but less than 3 miles down the road it’s pouring snow. 

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2 minutes ago, michaelmantis said:

I’m sure of that right about now. Back to some drizzle here but less than 3 miles down the road it’s pouring snow. 

I'm down in Owesgo for the weekend, but down the road from you back home has been back and forth between rain/snow as well.

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52 minutes ago, cyclone77 said:

Looking at the new DVN RAOB makes it pretty surprising that it's still 80/20 rain/snow here.  Only an extremely shallow layer of above freezing air at the surface.  Even light precip should be enough to quickly flip this over to all snow.  Grrr

Finally got a chance to look at that, and ILX is very similar to DVN. Very odd indeed things have struggled to quickly change over to snow everywhere, especially as surface temps have dropped a few degrees with cooling taking place.

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1 hour ago, cyclone77 said:

Looking at the new DVN RAOB makes it pretty surprising that it's still 80/20 rain/snow here.  Only an extremely shallow layer of above freezing air at the surface.  Even light precip should be enough to quickly flip this over to all snow.  Grrr

 

6 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:

Finally got a chance to look at that, and ILX is very similar to DVN. Very odd indeed things have struggled to quickly change over to snow everywhere, especially as surface temps have dropped a few degrees with cooling taking place.

The freezing level does look low enough for snow.  It is surprising.  Only thing I can figure, and this may not explain it, is that there is a touch of dry air aloft between about -5C and -10C.  It's not really even dry, just not saturated.  Maybe RC or someone else can chime in.

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1 minute ago, Hoosier said:

 

The freezing level does look low enough for snow.  It is surprising.  Only thing I can figure, and this may not explain it, is that there is a touch of dry air aloft between about -5C and -10C.  It's not really even dry, just not saturated.  Maybe RC or someone else can chime in.

Only thing I can think of is it was pretty foggy before, and at the onset of precip.  Maybe the high saturation "water logged" the flakes as they hit the melting layer (around 500ft) and caused rapid melting?

All snow here now, and ripping pretty nicely.

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20 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

00z NAM is not good for Chicago proper.

Wasn't Chicago proper  always  a 1-3" event? That said, after watching 12 NAM runs over the past 72 hrs...whatever it shows now....eh....

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