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Thundersnow12

January 10th-12th Winter Storm Potential

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12 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:

LE ongoing in SE. WI and NE. IL.

That should bode well for enhancement of snows later.

This is really interesting. I think there is some seeding from above going on. Aircraft soundings from ORD, MDW and MKE show temps around 1KM up -4 to -5C but there is about 5000' of temps above freezing above that. I'd have thought the light precip from the higher cloud layers would entirely melt before being able to seed the lake-effect precip, but maybe not given the snow reports?

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11 minutes ago, janetjanet998 said:

what a disaster of a system forecast wise...will the public even take seriously the next event thanks to media and social media hype from this one

1) Snow totals busted..(deform band may save the day in a few places)

2) No widespread Massive ice 

3) no 3-5 inches of rain up north

4)  No overnight Tornado outbreak over the south from discrete cells ahead of the line (just spin ups within the line)

 

right on track in mby. If I get 3" in the back end. Went as planned. Actually, surprised went to frozen so quickly..albiet light.

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2 hours ago, SchaumburgStormer said:

The backside better be rocking or everyone is going to embarrassingly bust.
 

(Poor WI crew, from a 20” big dog to advisory levels in a couple models runs hours before onset) 

WSW downgraded to WWA for Dane. This system has confirmed for me that models are pointless. I quit.

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well we have now switched from sleet to freezing rain - finally. I didnt actually think we would get FZRA because it went right to sleet and the low is going well south of here.

Not a lot of icing going on though, temp is 31.6. Hopefully we can keep the FZRA while temp lowers a bit more. I am still hoping for .5" if ice...but not expecting it.

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17 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said:

With wave 2 going weak and east, it appears my snow total from this dud will be a measly 1".  :axe:

I know how you feel and it's the worst when just 2 days ago you were in the sweet spot. 

Onto the next.

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On 1/8/2020 at 6:28 PM, Hoosier said:

Ok, I searched January for 2" precip, 1.0" snow storm combos in Chicago history.  I know, low bar on the snow amount lol.  But even setting a measly threshold of 1" snow, it's rare... like really rare.  

We'll throw this one on the list even though it started on New Years Eve...

12/31/1890 to 1/2/1891:  2.03" precip, 3.0" snow

and...

1/26/1967 to 1/27/1967:  2.40" precip, 23.0" snow

So I'm not sure what to think.  Either something pretty unusual is on the verge of happening or the 2" precip amount or 1" snow amount will get derailed.  Guess we'll find out in a few days.

Looks like it will be the 2" precip that fails.  Only 1.15" at ORD so far for the 10th-11th and not going to get enough precip later to get to 2"

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well at least we're one day closer to some more mild temps the first half of next week. Kind of taking a liking to this Mid Atlantic winter climo.

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30 minutes ago, ChiTownStorm11 said:

It's undeniable that the GFS won this storm. It has been showing the southern solution for days.

It sure seems like the early GFS ideas of a more SE/weaker track is going to win out. It would appear that my "Euro is king" call, along with the NW trend, was premature. Overall, models were pretty disappointing for this storm.

Feel bad for the NWS offices that will take the brunt of the criticism from the less meteorologically educated public.

 

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2 minutes ago, King James said:

Wind is really whipping around, at least feels like a storm out there

Yeah.  Large/thick branch that probably could've killed somebody fell down the street here.

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10 minutes ago, UMB WX said:

well at least we're one day closer to some more mild temps the first half of next week. Kind of taking a liking to this Mid Atlantic winter climo.

Net year begins real mid-atlantic climo for me....moving the Raleigh NC area.

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3 minutes ago, DaveNay said:

Net year begins real mid-atlantic climo for me....moving the Raleigh NC area.

Did Raleigh move out of the Southeast?

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3 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said:

Call looking $$$

You're gonna bust nicely in the snow dept.

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7 minutes ago, DaveNay said:

IMO it's more mid-atlantic climo than southern climo

Short jaunt to the armpit of winter weenie land, Richmond, VA.

Not sure I could handle the SE but NC has a lot to offer outdoors.  I hope you enjoy your new home.  We'll miss ya. 

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All indications are for a period of mod-hvy snow later, but questions about how long mixing hangs on and temps hanging around 32 for part of the snow (thanks to marine influence) make me hesitant to go above 2-3".  If both of the above factors break favorably, then could get a bit more.

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