• Member Statistics

    15,738
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    DanVarner1
    Newest Member
    DanVarner1
    Joined
jburns

Mid to Long Term Discussion 2020

Recommended Posts

Nothing to bang the drums about, but as a few others have mentioned, watching a few opportunities for some wintry mischief next week. 

The first period to keep an eye on is a quick moving disturbance Tuesday, that could at the very least spark off a few snow showers. The vort is really not that far off from something a bit bigger, but would need to drift a little more west as it digs Monday night. 

 

The second, more fun disturbance to watch could be the one towards the end of the week into the weekend.

 

Again, nothing to shout from the rooftops yet, but hey it's a few things we have to watch in the coming days imo! 

 

 

GFSSE_500_avort_147.png

GFSSE_prec_ptype_150.png

GFSSE_500_avort_249.png

GFSSE_prec_ptype_240.png

  • Like 5

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
9 minutes ago, Orangeburgwx said:

Out to hr60, the initial low over the plains is a little further west than at the same stamp (hr66 on the 6z run)

Sent from my LML212VL using Tapatalk
 

It’s got rain up to about DCA , for Saturday. Remember that one time it had snow and sleet down to RAH and CLT!??

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Back to bleak mood on here... Cold air coming and storm systems riding the southern stream. I'd be concerned if models WERE showing snow, the kiss of death in these parts. We have the #1 ingredient coming: cold air, at least seasonable or below. I'll take our chances with a storm in the next 10 days.

  • Like 2
  • Thanks 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

Back to bleak mood on here... Cold air coming and storm systems riding the southern stream. I'd be concerned if models WERE showing snow, the kiss of death in these parts. We have the #1 ingredient coming: cold air, at least seasonable or below. I'll take our chances with a storm in the next 10 days.

Really true! I guess most, me included, just want to see a fantasy blizzard on the models! But, cold is absolutely the most important ingredient for us to get wintry weather, that ‘appears’ to be coming and as active as the southern stream has been...

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
8 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said:

Really true! I guess most, me included, just want to see a fantasy blizzard on the models! But, cold is absolutely the most important ingredient for us to get wintry weather, that ‘appears’ to be coming and as active as the southern stream has been...

 

We rain on the 24th on GFS, maybe the ground will still be frozen!?:facepalm:

  • Haha 2
  • Sad 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The rain on Saturday looks to have pushed back to Saturday night. Also went from over and inch on the GFS a couple days ago to nothing today. NWS sounded somewhat bullish on a large area of rain in this morning AFD. Will be interesting to see if they change course at this afternoon's update. Might actually get a dry weekend!

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Yea this is turning into a fail quickly. Better hope the cold reloads after day 12 because its gone after day 7 on the Euro and EPS. 

  • Haha 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
6 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

Yea this is turning into a fail quickly. Better hope the cold reloads after day 12 because its gone after day 7 on the Euro and EPS. 

Is it?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
10 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

Yea this is turning into a fail quickly. Better hope the cold reloads after day 12 because its gone after day 7 on the Euro and EPS. 

You are breaking my brain today. 

 

 

gfs-ensemble-all-KTDF-daily_tmin_tmax-9089600.png

ecmwf-ensemble-KTDF-height_temp-9046400.png

  • Haha 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, Queencitywx said:

You are breaking my brain today. 

 

 

gfs-ensemble-all-KTDF-daily_tmin_tmax-9089600.png

You can have your GFS, I will take my EPS and Op Euro thanks. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

You can have your GFS, I will take my EPS and Op Euro thanks. 

and you can sit here and make shit up but it's clear that the euro modifies before a secondary cold shot comes in later in the run. 

  • Like 2
  • Haha 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, Queencitywx said:

and you can sit here and make shit up but it's clear that the euro modifies before a secondary cold shot comes in later in the run. 

I'm not making anything up, I reinforced my point with maps like you did with a graph. The key is if modifies in time to rain and the western ridge is continually getting beat down. The pattern we are entering does not look like a good one for snow but we can always hope 

  • Thanks 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
20 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

You can have your GFS, I will take my EPS and Op Euro thanks. 

Even taking the 0z EPS at face value, that is nothing that resembles ‘warm.’

815336B1-8FB9-482F-96F1-1A9538F96C91.png

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, msuwx said:

Even taking the 0z EPS at face value, that is nothing that resembles ‘warm.’

815336B1-8FB9-482F-96F1-1A9538F96C91.png

It also has nothing that resembles "snowy pattern"

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
41 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

I'm not making anything up, I reinforced my point with maps like you did with a graph. The key is if modifies in time to rain and the western ridge is continually getting beat down. The pattern we are entering does not look like a good one for snow but we can always hope 

The truth hurts, :facepalm:

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

Day 10 of the Euro certainly doesn't look like the cold is rebuilding quickly..

850t_anom.conus.thumb.png.6b6e29cacca7d9be5738b942faceab01.png 

Last frame of the 0z EPS

 

F6764F49-B5F9-4D1B-AC1B-9627D4CE8ACF.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, msuwx said:

Last frame of the 0z EPS

 

F6764F49-B5F9-4D1B-AC1B-9627D4CE8ACF.png

Yea, the cold comes back maybe by hour 360. What could go wrong?

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.