Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,586
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    23Yankee
    Newest Member
    23Yankee
    Joined

December 11 Frontal Wave Snow Event


WxUSAF
 Share

Recommended Posts

I have absolutely no expectations beyond snow tv. We’re mild leading in and we have cold air chasing precip, not to mention starting out with wet ground. That said...it should be interesting to track and you gotta like how this season has started if you’re a snow/cold fan. And while my expectations are low, with the changeover start time looking like it’ll be at night and with rates good enough, it wouldn’t surprise me if grass, sidewalks, and parking lots get a coating.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Mount Holly removed any mention of snow from the forecast here. They are expecting no more than a coating anywhere outside of their NE PA/NW NJ zones.

It would take some dynamics and heavy precip/banding to overcome the warm boundary layer, esp for the coastal plain. Not sure that is very likely at this point. The usual places like Westminster will probably manage a sloppy inch or 2.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

21 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said:

Really? Feels about the same here unless people thought 5"+ was realistic? I've been living in the 1/2" - 2" world on grass and mulch since jump....because...that's my climo ;)

I was just going off of TT. 
 

I’m with you. My high bar is an inch on non paved surfaces. Don’t see this as more than that. Never have.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

There are no models bringing anything but white rain inside the Beltways and/or 95 east.  RGEM and GFS seem more bullish than EURO and NAM for NW areas.  Fun to track.  Not a big event for anyone but if NW areas see 2 inches on the grass would take it in a minute.   I have to make up for the first 50 years of my life in the DMV when I was always in the white rain zone!

Link to comment
Share on other sites

23 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

I wouldn't if I lived in Leesburg. :weenie:

Latest runs are screaming 35 and rain with a few splatty flakes for the corridor and points east, however.

Not convinced that they aren’t screaming that here also. Last Monday I had snow likely with temps that morning supposedly near 32. It barely got under 40 and there was no snow Monday or even Monday night. Managed a few flurries later in but temp forecasts busted high  through the whole period.

Just not feeling it but hoping for a pleasant surprise 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

23 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

I'd happily wake up to this Wed morning

P2WqOtk.jpg

Pretty similar looking sounding for here with some decent precip still falling.

I rather like the 3km NAM. Suggestive of some banding for eastern areas, which is probably what it would take to cool the lower levels and actually provide a chance of some snow stickage. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Pretty similar looking sounding for here with some decent precip still falling.

I rather like the 3km NAM. Suggestive of some banding for eastern areas, which is probably what it would take to cool the lower levels and actually provide a chance of some snow stickage. 

3k nam is encouraging with the column. At 1AM my yard is 36 but the freezing line is just off the deck. Precip knocks the surface down close to freezing with ease. Now does the cold really push that efficiently? I'd say not quick as nice as shown on the 3k but it's an interesting sounding either way. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just now, NorthArlington101 said:

Still gets it done. Moderate snow at the end of the run looks to be ongoing, temps down to 30 even at DCA.

1576065600-YRoN0HZZxVk.png

It does, but I was looking at the trends alone. Everything has been trending more sheared with the wave. The rgem was most amped and it still is but it did trend weaker with everything else. But it’s not over. Long way to go. 

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just now, LP08 said:

GFS has 33 ish in and around the city at 6z with snow.  Looks very similar to the 6z run.

GFS Sounding.png

That gfs sounding is just bizarre. I don’t understand how that jives with moderate precip. Compare that to the NAM sounding Bob posted which makes much more sense.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

6 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

That gfs sounding is just bizarre. I don’t understand how that jives with moderate precip. Compare that to the NAM sounding Bob posted which makes much more sense.

The model is broken at a fundamental level since the update. It needs a corrected iteration. The cold bias has increased to -0.3C globally averaged.

:facepalm:

  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...